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USD/CHF leans slightly bullish amidst news of US-Iran tensions The safe-haven USD/CHF currency pair has shown a bullish trend over four days—characterized by a pattern of lower highs—reflecting US dollar dominance amidst the Middle East conflict involving the US and Iran. USD/CHF is currently trading around the 0.81272 level on the FXOpen chart, following a session on July 21 that saw a low of 0.80909, a high of 0.81324, and a close at 0.81272. The US dollar has strengthened as market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike have risen again. The probability of a rate hike at the September meeting increased compared to the previous day, thereby supporting the USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, rose to the 101.188 level, driven by the US economy's resilience compared to other developed nations. Escalating tensions and renewed military skirmishes between the US and Iran have impacted the USD/CHF pair, which operates through two opposing dynamics. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, valued for Switzerland's political neutrality and exceptional financial stability; amidst rising military tensions, global investors tend to shift assets to Switzerland to safeguard their wealth. Conversely, the USD gains support from these tensions because the Middle East conflict triggers a surge in energy prices. For the US, this energy price spike raises concerns about high inflation risks amidst slowing economic growth. This has caused expectations for Fed rate cuts to fade, thereby supporting the USD's strength. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) tends to maintain a dovish stance to prevent an excessive appreciation of the CHF, which could harm Switzerland's export sector. Nevertheless, the CHF retains its safe-haven status. Should geopolitical tensions escalate or "risk-off" sentiment prevail, demand for the CHF could rise, putting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair. From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, with the price expected to remain within the 0.80300–0.81500 range. Nearest support is around 0.80800; the next target is around 0.80300. Nearest resistance is around 0.41450; the next target is around 0.8180. This forecast could be wrong.

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