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USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.17.2025 Time Zone: GMT +2 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The USDCAD currency pair is positioned ahead of a high-impact day for both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, making this H4 forex forecast especially sensitive to incoming economic data. On the USD side, traders will closely monitor the New York Manufacturing Index, which serves as a leading indicator of US economic health, as well as speeches from FOMC members John Williams and Philip Jefferson. Any hawkish tone may support the USD through expectations of tighter monetary policy. Additionally, delayed releases from the Census Bureau and Treasury Budget may influence market sentiment as the data backlog clears. For the CAD, a heavy cluster of inflation-related releases—including CPI, CPI Median, CPI Trim, and CPI Ex Volatile Items—will play a key role. Stronger-than-forecast Canadian inflation typically strengthens the CAD due to higher rate expectations from the Bank of Canada, increasing volatility in the USDCAD H4 chart around release times. Price Action: The USD-CAD price action on the H4 timeframe continues to respect a well-defined ascending bullish channel, with price oscillating between the lower and upper trend boundaries. Recent candles show consolidation around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which aligns closely with the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The price has recently moved from the lower Bollinger Band back toward the middle and upper half of the channel, indicating stabilizing bullish momentum after a corrective phase. Despite the consolidation, the broader trend structure remains upward, but traders should watch for a clean breakout from the 50% Fibonacci zone to confirm continuation. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: USD/CAD is trading between the middle and upper Bands, showing mild bullish pressure. The middle Band aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level, acting as key dynamic support. Price recovery from the lower Band suggests stabilizing bullish momentum. MACD (12,26,9): MACD values at -0.000280 / -0.000604 reflect weak bearish momentum. The histogram is contracting, signaling a possible momentum shift. A bullish crossover would confirm renewed upside strength. RSI (28): The RSI at 48.38 indicates neutral momentum. It supports the current consolidation near the 50% Fibonacci level. There is room for movement in either direction without overbought or oversold pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Key support is located at the 1.3980–1.3990 zone, aligning with the lower region of the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci cluster and the bullish channel’s mid-line. Resistance: Immediate resistance stands near 1.4065–1.4080, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and upper channel reaction zones. Conclusion and Consideration: The USD-CAD H4 technical outlook remains bullish overall, but the price is currently consolidating around the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement and middle Bollinger Band. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum with potential for bullish continuation if resistance zones break. However, given today’s heavy US and Canadian fundamental calendar, volatility spikes are expected, especially around CPI releases and FOMC member remarks. Traders should manage positions cautiously, as fundamentals may override short-term technical setups. Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential. FXGlory 11.17.2025

USD/CAD strengthened slightly after a positive manufacturing sales report. On Friday, November 14, 2025, the USD/CAD pair drew a bearish candlestick, forming a half-body of the previous candlestick. The price formed a high of 1.40453, a low of 1.40141, and a close of 1.40149. The strengthening Canadian dollar limited the bullish bias from the previous day. Statistics Canada's September 2025 Manufacturing Survey reported that manufacturing sales reached their highest level since February 2025, rising 3.3% month-over-month to $72.1 billion in September. Sales increased in 14 of 21 subsectors, led by transportation equipment +9.2% and petroleum and coal +5.3%. With the overall increase in September, total manufacturing sales rose 2.7% year-over-year. Quarterly, sales increased 2.8% to $212.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025, the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2022. The petroleum and coal subsector, at +12.5%, primary metals at +6.4%, and transportation equipment at +3.2%, were the largest contributors to the increase in the third quarter of 2025. Today, the market will focus on Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide subtle clues about future BoC policy. Monthly CPI is estimated at 0.2%, slightly up from 0.1% in the previous period. The median year-over-year CPI is estimated at 3.1%, slightly down from the previously revised 3.2%. Higher-than-expected inflation data tends to support a more hawkish BoC monetary policy stance, thus strengthening the CAD. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to around 2.25% in October, and the market believes the easing cycle may be nearing completion. On the other hand, the Fed is also in a position where a cut is no longer seen as a near-term certainty, thus maintaining the USD's yield advantage over the CAD. Because the CAD is a commodity currency and is also influenced by interest rates and commodity exports, if USD yields become more attractive, the USD tends to strengthen against the CAD. Global oil prices appear to remain overshadowed by concerns about oversupply, despite Friday's rise. However, despite the slight increase in oil prices, the CAD has not yet significantly strengthened due to interest rates and a relatively weak domestic economy. The Bank of Canada lowered its growth projections for 2025 and 2026, reflecting Canada's somewhat sluggish economic growth. On the other hand, the US economy has been relatively strong, as evidenced by several reports that support the USD. While elements are supporting the CAD, such as positive manufacturing surveys, commodities, and the potential halt to interest rate cuts, the overall situation gives the USD a slight advantage in the short term. The market currently shows the USDCAD pair moving within a relatively narrow range, awaiting key data such as inflation data and Fed officials' speeches that could trigger a change in direction. External factors such as global risk appetite, US-Canada trade conditions, and tariffs are also cited as potential directional factors. Fundamental analysis concludes that the USDCAD pair is slightly bullish, or at least that the CAD is unlikely to strengthen strongly unless there is a major positive data surprise for Canada or a sharp rise in oil prices. However, due to the balanced conditions and the market's somewhat cautious approach, the likelihood of significant action is limited or could even move sideways with slight USD strengthening. The forecasted daily range movement is lower support around 1.3980, and upper resistance around 1.4050. If a bullish USD bias emerges, it could reach 1.4090. Conversely, if the CAD receives support, the price could retreat to 1.3950.

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