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[Guest Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 30 November - 4 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off support at 1.0628, move up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. The pair actually went up reaching 1.0690 on Wednesday, after which it dropped, as predicted;

- graphical analysis turned out to be only 50% right about GBP/USD. According to its forecast, the pair was supposed to rebound upwards first, then drop to support at 1.5085 and further to around 1.5025. In fact, starting from Monday, the pair began to fall and reached the set bottom by Friday, ending up at 1.5030;

- last week, the experts and the indicators differed regarding USD/JPY. Nonetheless, the summary of their opinions proved quite efficient – resistance was at 123.20, and the pair was moving along the 122.80 pivot point during the week, finishing exactly at the set level;

- the forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be correct essentially – a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially (the pair made it 1.0144) and then a surge to the new target of 1.0250. All that happened as the pair reached 1.0250 on Wednesday and stayed there till mid-Friday when it shot up by another 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:

- regarding EUR/USD, 65% of the experts, all indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict a fall to the low of March 2015, that is to 1.0450-1.0500, after which the pair should fight its way to resistance at 1.0620;

- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost unanimously suggest that GBP/USD should fall to the rates of last March. The nearest support is set at 1.5000, with the next at 1.4890;

- opinions diverge about USD/JPY – 70% of the experts, backed by the indicators, insist on the pair’s transition to 123.00-124.00 whereas graphical analysis on H4 dissents expressly. It, in turn, shows that USD/JPY should first go down to support at 121.50 and then return to last week’s pivot point 122.80. The indicators on D1 also vote for the continuation of the sideways trend;

- the USD/CHF pair is rapidly approaching its values of 2007-2009, and now a fuller picture can be seen only on W1 or larger timeframes. As for the weekly forecast, all experts, all indicators along with graphical analysis on H4 speak about the pair’s aspiration to reach 1.0400 first and then 1.0500. Such unanimity may seem a bit fishy, and a look at the one-year-old chart would only cause more concern. Throughout last autumn, USD/CHF was also rising actively but then Black Thursday occurred 15 January. It’s unlikely to happen again in the coming days, nevertheless graphical analysis on D1 reminds that during the week the pair may well fall to 0.9850 and only then return to around 1.0300.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Guest tifagabe]

Forex Forecast for 30 November - 4 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast :

• graphical analysis on H1 and H4 predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off support at 1.0628, move up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. The pair actually went up reaching 1.0690 on Wednesday, after which it dropped, as predicted;
• graphical analysis turned out to be only 50% right about GBP/USD. According to its forecast, the pair was supposed to rebound upwards first, then drop to support at 1.5085 and further to around 1.5025. In fact, starting from Monday, the pair began to fall and reached the set bottom by Friday, ending up at 1.5030;
• last week, the experts and the indicators differed regarding USD/JPY. Nonetheless, the summary of their opinions proved quite efficient – resistance was at 123.20, and the pair was moving along the 122.80 pivot point during the week, finishing exactly at the set level;
• the forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be correct essentially – a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially (the pair made it 1.0144) and then a surge to the new target of 1.0250. All that happened as the pair reached 1.0250 on Wednesday and stayed there till mid-Friday when it shot up by another 100 points.
  

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward :

• regarding EUR/USD, 65% of the experts, all indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict a fall to the low of March 2015, that is to 1.0450-1.0500, after which the pair should fight its way to resistance at 1.0620;
• the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost unanimously suggest that GBP/USD should fall to the rates of last March. The nearest support is set at 1.5000, with the next at 1.4890;
• opinions diverge about USD/JPY – 70% of the experts, backed by the indicators, insist on the pair’s transition to 123.00-124.00 whereas graphical analysis on H4 dissents expressly. It, in turn, shows that USD/JPY should first go down to support at 121.50 and then return to last week’s pivot point 122.80. The indicators on D1 also vote for the continuation of the sideways trend;
• the USD/CHF pair is rapidly approaching its values of 2007-2009, and now a fuller picture can be seen only on W1 or larger timeframes. As for the weekly forecast, all experts, all indicators along with graphical analysis on H4 speak about the pair’s aspiration to reach 1.0400 first and then 1.0500. Such unanimity may seem a bit fishy, and a look at the one-year-old chart would only cause more concern. Throughout last autumn, USD/CHF was also rising actively but then Black Thursday occurred 15 January. It’s unlikely to happen again in the coming days, nevertheless graphical analysis on D1 reminds that during the week the pair may well fall to 0.9850 and only then return to around 1.0300.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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[Guest Julia NordFX]

Investing in Gold: Endurance Test

Nathan Rothschild from the famous banking dynasty once said that gold was not understood. Attempts to sum up the opinions of the most respected representatives of the financial community only prove Rothschild right – all discussions about gold turn into a real battle.

Some say that gold is unwanted material suited only for making women’s trinkets. Thus, gold bugs investing in this ‘dust’ are either simply ignorant or unlucky profiteers pushing themselves and their customers to the brink of a precipice. The counter riposte would be that gold is the only powerful thing that can help you preserve your capital regardless of any shakeups.

Here is some background before we look at the reasoning of both sides. Fourteen years ago, 2 April 2001, the price of gold hit the bottom at $255.30 an ounce, after which the price was on the rise for a whole decade. No other asset of the financial market has displayed such behavior!

In 2011, gold broke $1,900 an ounce and it looked like the landmark of $2,000 was reachable in the next few months but then gold started to lose value fast again. Optimists called that crash a correction while pessimists viewed it as the return to gold’s actual worth. Nowadays, gold prices are at the rate of 5 years ago. Doomsayers are gloating that this is not the end of it but rather the beginning and a real stone fall is yet to come.

Speaking of stones, The Wall Street Journal dubbed the precious metal… a rock. An article titled “Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock” tried to convince the reader that gold, in point of fact, stopped being a safe haven and a hedge against inflation. The author inquired, “So why, even as Greece has defaulted, the euro has sunk against the dollar, and the Chinese stock market has stumbled, has gold been sitting there like a pet rock?... Many people may have bought gold for the wrong reasons…”

The title of another article in The Washington Post speaks for itself – “Gold Is Doomed”. Bloomberg also foresees a further decline for gold. According to Bloomberg analysts, in early 2016, gold will fall to $984 an ounce, and this will be the biggest drop for the past six years. Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London says, “Gold is out of fashion like flared trousers: no one wants it. It’s not going to collapse, but we think it is going to be at a lower level in the not-too-distant future.”

The sentiment is shared by Brian Barish, President of Cambiar Investors LLC, “It’s not a commodity that has much fundamental demand. It’s pretty, so people use it for jewelry. But it’s unlike iron ore or oil, or copper, or corn. There’s not specific end-use for it.”

The rate of $984 is surely low but it’s not the bottom by far. In his MarketWatch article, Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group, states that now gold’s fair value is $825 but “…whenever gold does eventually drop to fair value, it will overshoot and drop to a much lower value.” In his calculations, if gold drops below fair value like it did in the mid-1970s and the late 1990s, it would trade at around $350 an ounce. This opinion may be worth listening to as Erb and Duke University professor Campbell Harvey forecast a long-term gold bear market at its inception.

Thus far, it’s been about the stance of those supporting the bears in their fight with the bulls. Naturally, as in any contest, there’re proponents of the other side. As such, Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine Capital, thinks that gold can rebound to $1,400 an ounce. In his opinion, one of the reasons for this is negative yields of a range of European bonds, which can serve as a signal of deflation and make gold more appealing. “Momentum is bearish," weighs in Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic advisor with Rosland Capital. Agreeing with Gundlach, he believes that gold will bounce back eventually. "It's only a matter of time before gold turns around," Nichols said. "Gold should climb to a much higher price over the next three to five years thanks to physical demand from emerging markets."

Michael Cuggino, President and Portfolio Manager of Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, Inc., concurs, “Over time, gold prices will appreciate. Russia, China, India and central banks of other countries are looking to diversify their holdings.” Cuggino also admitted that gold prices would fluctuate a lot in the near future. Nonetheless, he has about 20% of the fund's assets tied up in gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.

Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, is also on the bullish side – “Gold will see another parabolic bull run from July 2016. Prices may reach $1,700 or higher between June 2016 and November 2016. Until then, gold investors need to have the patience and not get scared by more price falls.”

Still, the question remains – Where will the price move? “As I see it,” says John Gordon, leading analyst with international broker NordFX, “it would be a mistake to give any forecast on the basis on one or two factors, albeit important ones. Experience has proven that things are more complex in reality, and gold is no exception.”

“I would point out seven global factors that, in their interaction, shape the price of gold – inflation, interest rates, the situation on stock markets, geopolitical environment, a strong or weak US dollar, oil prices and demand for gold in Asia.

A modification in any of these factors can upset the equilibrium of the multifaceted system, which would result in the sum vector, or the trend, changing its direction. Therefore, I’d advise investors preferring gold to diversify risk and also invest in shares of gold-mining companies and established investment funds as they are able to respond to market changes in a more flexible manner.”

In conclusion, one cannot but present one more – quite sensational – opinion. Avi Gilburt, managing member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC and an Elliott Wave analyst, claims that in the foreseeable future, gold will reach… $25,000 a troy ounce! Gilburt wrote, “I stand before you today, almost feeling like Elliott did back in 1941. Yes, in 2015, I am seeing this correction finally completing (but at much lower levels) and starting a major bull market phase that can last the next 50 years.” “Yes, I know that this is quite a bold prediction. However, please remember that, for me, it is all a matter of mathematics and nothing more.”

What forecasts will turn out right – bullish or bearish? Time will show, in ‘just’ 50 years. Meanwhile, please be patient – after all, it’s only business and nothing more.

[Guest Julia NordFX]

Investing in Gold: Endurance Test

Nathan Rothschild from the famous banking dynasty once said that gold was not understood. Attempts to sum up the opinions of the most respected representatives of the financial community only prove Rothschild right – all discussions about gold turn into a real battle.

Some say that gold is unwanted material suited only for making women’s trinkets. Thus, gold bugs investing in this ‘dust’ are either simply ignorant or unlucky profiteers pushing themselves and their customers to the brink of a precipice. The counter riposte would be that gold is the only powerful thing that can help you preserve your capital regardless of any shakeups.

Here is some background before we look at the reasoning of both sides. Fourteen years ago, 2 April 2001, the price of gold hit the bottom at $255.30 an ounce, after which the price was on the rise for a whole decade. No other asset of the financial market has displayed such behavior!

In 2011, gold broke $1,900 an ounce and it looked like the landmark of $2,000 was reachable in the next few months but then gold started to lose value fast again. Optimists called that crash a correction while pessimists viewed it as the return to gold’s actual worth. Nowadays, gold prices are at the rate of 5 years ago. Doomsayers are gloating that this is not the end of it but rather the beginning and a real stone fall is yet to come.

Speaking of stones, The Wall Street Journal dubbed the precious metal… a rock. An article titled “Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock” tried to convince the reader that gold, in point of fact, stopped being a safe haven and a hedge against inflation. The author inquired, “So why, even as Greece has defaulted, the euro has sunk against the dollar, and the Chinese stock market has stumbled, has gold been sitting there like a pet rock?... Many people may have bought gold for the wrong reasons…”

The title of another article in The Washington Post speaks for itself – “Gold Is Doomed”. Bloomberg also foresees a further decline for gold. According to Bloomberg analysts, in early 2016, gold will fall to $984 an ounce, and this will be the biggest drop for the past six years. Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London says, “Gold is out of fashion like flared trousers: no one wants it. It’s not going to collapse, but we think it is going to be at a lower level in the not-too-distant future.”

The sentiment is shared by Brian Barish, President of Cambiar Investors LLC, “It’s not a commodity that has much fundamental demand. It’s pretty, so people use it for jewelry. But it’s unlike iron ore or oil, or copper, or corn. There’s not specific end-use for it.”

The rate of $984 is surely low but it’s not the bottom by far. In his MarketWatch article, Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group, states that now gold’s fair value is $825 but “…whenever gold does eventually drop to fair value, it will overshoot and drop to a much lower value.” In his calculations, if gold drops below fair value like it did in the mid-1970s and the late 1990s, it would trade at around $350 an ounce. This opinion may be worth listening to as Erb and Duke University professor Campbell Harvey forecast a long-term gold bear market at its inception.

Thus far, it’s been about the stance of those supporting the bears in their fight with the bulls. Naturally, as in any contest, there’re proponents of the other side. As such, Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine Capital, thinks that gold can rebound to $1,400 an ounce. In his opinion, one of the reasons for this is negative yields of a range of European bonds, which can serve as a signal of deflation and make gold more appealing. “Momentum is bearish," weighs in Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic advisor with Rosland Capital. Agreeing with Gundlach, he believes that gold will bounce back eventually. "It's only a matter of time before gold turns around," Nichols said. "Gold should climb to a much higher price over the next three to five years thanks to physical demand from emerging markets."

Michael Cuggino, President and Portfolio Manager of Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, Inc., concurs, “Over time, gold prices will appreciate. Russia, China, India and central banks of other countries are looking to diversify their holdings.” Cuggino also admitted that gold prices would fluctuate a lot in the near future. Nonetheless, he has about 20% of the fund's assets tied up in gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.

Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, is also on the bullish side – “Gold will see another parabolic bull run from July 2016. Prices may reach $1,700 or higher between June 2016 and November 2016. Until then, gold investors need to have the patience and not get scared by more price falls.”

Still, the question remains – Where will the price move? “As I see it,” says John Gordon, leading analyst with international broker NordFX, “it would be a mistake to give any forecast on the basis on one or two factors, albeit important ones. Experience has proven that things are more complex in reality, and gold is no exception.”

“I would point out seven global factors that, in their interaction, shape the price of gold – inflation, interest rates, the situation on stock markets, geopolitical environment, a strong or weak US dollar, oil prices and demand for gold in Asia.

A modification in any of these factors can upset the equilibrium of the multifaceted system, which would result in the sum vector, or the trend, changing its direction. Therefore, I’d advise investors preferring gold to diversify risk and also invest in shares of gold-mining companies and established investment funds as they are able to respond to market changes in a more flexible manner.”

In conclusion, one cannot but present one more – quite sensational – opinion. Avi Gilburt, managing member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC and an Elliott Wave analyst, claims that in the foreseeable future, gold will reach… $25,000 a troy ounce! Gilburt wrote, “I stand before you today, almost feeling like Elliott did back in 1941. Yes, in 2015, I am seeing this correction finally completing (but at much lower levels) and starting a major bull market phase that can last the next 50 years.” “Yes, I know that this is quite a bold prediction. However, please remember that, for me, it is all a matter of mathematics and nothing more.”

What forecasts will turn out right – bullish or bearish? Time will show, in ‘just’ 50 years. Meanwhile, please be patient – after all, it’s only business and nothing more.

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[Guest Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 7-11 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- as for EUR/USD, the past week showed vividly that fundamental events can refute all forecasts of technical analysis. Thus, the ECB’s decision on key interest rates stopped the falling trend on Thursday and brought the pair to 1-month-old values;

- the GBP/USD pair managed to fulfil the forecast before Thursday, according to which the pair was supposed to fall to 1.4890. The pair reached this support mid-week and then, on the ECB’s decisions, went up, returning to last week’s average values;

- opinions differed regarding USD/JPY last week. Most experts insisted on the pair’s transition to around 123.00-124.00 while graphical analysis, on the opposite, foresaw a fall to support at 121.50 and then a return to the 122.80 pivot point. The indicators on D1 also voted for the continuation of the sideways trend. The pair ended up going both up to 123.70 and down to 122.30. Ultimately, USD/JPY returned to the average values of the past 4 weeks, confirming the forecast about a further sideways trend;

- graphical analysis on D1 warned that USD/CHF could easily drop to 0.9850 during the week. It turned out that the pair just needed a pretext to go for it. The ECB’s decisions announced by Mario Draghi served as such, and the pair plunged by almost 400 points but then bounced back to the key level of 1.0000.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- the indicators are at a loss about EUR/USD, which makes sense after Mario Draghi’s speech: on the H4 timeframe, 85% of them vote for a rise; it’s already 58% on D1 while the number dwindles to 16% on W1. As for the analysts, 70% of them believe that the pair will still continue to move upwards in an effort to reach 1.1000-1.1100;

- the experts, the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 almost unanimously predict that GBP/USD will rise to 1.5200. The next resistance is at 1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 indicates that before rising, the pair may go down to support around 1.5055;

- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost as one suggest that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend in the same channel where it started to move 6 November. The pivot point is 122.95, support is 122.20, and resistance is 123.75. Only one expert doesn’t rule out that the pair will rise to 125.00;

- the forecast for USD/CHF isn’t so clear-cut. If most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a rise to 1.1000, the indicators on H4 and D1 are more inclined to see the pair go down. By the way, graphical analysis on D1 also indicates that before USD/CHF soars up to the said level, it should first fall to support around 0.9765.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Guest Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 7-11 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- as for EUR/USD, the past week showed vividly that fundamental events can refute all forecasts of technical analysis. Thus, the ECB’s decision on key interest rates stopped the falling trend on Thursday and brought the pair to 1-month-old values;

- the GBP/USD pair managed to fulfil the forecast before Thursday, according to which the pair was supposed to fall to 1.4890. The pair reached this support mid-week and then, on the ECB’s decisions, went up, returning to last week’s average values;

- opinions differed regarding USD/JPY last week. Most experts insisted on the pair’s transition to around 123.00-124.00 while graphical analysis, on the opposite, foresaw a fall to support at 121.50 and then a return to the 122.80 pivot point. The indicators on D1 also voted for the continuation of the sideways trend. The pair ended up going both up to 123.70 and down to 122.30. Ultimately, USD/JPY returned to the average values of the past 4 weeks, confirming the forecast about a further sideways trend;

- graphical analysis on D1 warned that USD/CHF could easily drop to 0.9850 during the week. It turned out that the pair just needed a pretext to go for it. The ECB’s decisions announced by Mario Draghi served as such, and the pair plunged by almost 400 points but then bounced back to the key level of 1.0000.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- the indicators are at a loss about EUR/USD, which makes sense after Mario Draghi’s speech: on the H4 timeframe, 85% of them vote for a rise; it’s already 58% on D1 while the number dwindles to 16% on W1. As for the analysts, 70% of them believe that the pair will still continue to move upwards in an effort to reach 1.1000-1.1100;

- the experts, the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 almost unanimously predict that GBP/USD will rise to 1.5200. The next resistance is at 1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 indicates that before rising, the pair may go down to support around 1.5055;

- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost as one suggest that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend in the same channel where it started to move 6 November. The pivot point is 122.95, support is 122.20, and resistance is 123.75. Only one expert doesn’t rule out that the pair will rise to 125.00;

- the forecast for USD/CHF isn’t so clear-cut. If most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a rise to 1.1000, the indicators on H4 and D1 are more inclined to see the pair go down. By the way, graphical analysis on D1 also indicates that before USD/CHF soars up to the said level, it should first fall to support around 0.9765.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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[Guest Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 14-18 December 2015

First, a review of the forecast for the past week:

- the publication of the last forecast for EUR/USD (a further rise and reaching 1.1000-1.1100) made skeptics say that couldn’t be right. Apparently, it could just as well. Already on Thursday, the pair got up to 1.1042 and reached 1.1030 next day, thus ‘scoring a brace’ in football terms;

- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228;

- the USD/JPY pair defied the majority opinion, which doesn’t always prove right. The analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis had almost unanimously predicted sideways movement for the pair. However, the pair started to fall mid-week, broke through the 122.20 support on Wednesday and reached the low of 120.57 on Friday;

- there was no clarity about USD/CHF. One of the scenarios was a fall to support around 0.9765. The pair did go down but stalled at 0.9800 without hitting the said bottom level.

Forecast for the coming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- most indicators, graphical analysis on H1 and 34% of the experts vote for EUR/USD to continue its upward trend to 1.1100. This is disputed by 66% of the experts, 25% of the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4. They believe that the pair will move sideways for some time, push off resistance at 1.1000, then break through support at 1.0900 and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is 1.0700, the next one is 100 points lower;

- as for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will be moving in the side channel within 1.4900-1.5250 with the pivot point at 1.5000. However, most indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 disagree. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching 1.5440 (followed by a roll down to 1.5300) and then 1.5500. Considering upcoming Christmas holidays, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;

- when drawing USD/JPY’s future movement, all indicators point downwards. Most analysts believe that 120.00 will be a very strong support level, bouncing off which the pair will go to resistance at 122.20 and possibly even higher to 123.20;

- all indicators on H4 show a fall for USD/CHF but on larger timeframes (D1 and W1) two-thirds of the indicators already point upward. As for the analysts, 30% reckon that USD/CHF hasn’t yet reached the bottom of 0.9650-0.9675. At the same time, 87% of the analysts agree that in the longer term, the pair should return to values above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives the pair two weeks to make it to 1.0250, with adjustments for the holiday season.

All forecasts may be subject to change as important economic data are released in the middle of the coming week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Guest Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 14-18 December 2015

First, a review of the forecast for the past week:

- the publication of the last forecast for EUR/USD (a further rise and reaching 1.1000-1.1100) made skeptics say that couldn’t be right. Apparently, it could just as well. Already on Thursday, the pair got up to 1.1042 and reached 1.1030 next day, thus ‘scoring a brace’ in football terms;

- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228;

- the USD/JPY pair defied the majority opinion, which doesn’t always prove right. The analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis had almost unanimously predicted sideways movement for the pair. However, the pair started to fall mid-week, broke through the 122.20 support on Wednesday and reached the low of 120.57 on Friday;

- there was no clarity about USD/CHF. One of the scenarios was a fall to support around 0.9765. The pair did go down but stalled at 0.9800 without hitting the said bottom level.

Forecast for the coming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- most indicators, graphical analysis on H1 and 34% of the experts vote for EUR/USD to continue its upward trend to 1.1100. This is disputed by 66% of the experts, 25% of the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4. They believe that the pair will move sideways for some time, push off resistance at 1.1000, then break through support at 1.0900 and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is 1.0700, the next one is 100 points lower;

- as for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will be moving in the side channel within 1.4900-1.5250 with the pivot point at 1.5000. However, most indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 disagree. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching 1.5440 (followed by a roll down to 1.5300) and then 1.5500. Considering upcoming Christmas holidays, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;

- when drawing USD/JPY’s future movement, all indicators point downwards. Most analysts believe that 120.00 will be a very strong support level, bouncing off which the pair will go to resistance at 122.20 and possibly even higher to 123.20;

- all indicators on H4 show a fall for USD/CHF but on larger timeframes (D1 and W1) two-thirds of the indicators already point upward. As for the analysts, 30% reckon that USD/CHF hasn’t yet reached the bottom of 0.9650-0.9675. At the same time, 87% of the analysts agree that in the longer term, the pair should return to values above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives the pair two weeks to make it to 1.0250, with adjustments for the holiday season.

All forecasts may be subject to change as important economic data are released in the middle of the coming week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 14-18 December 2015

First, a review of the forecast for the past week :

• the publication of the last forecast for EUR/USD (a further rise and reaching 1.1000-1.1100) made skeptics say that couldn’t be right. Apparently, it could just as well. Already on Thursday, the pair got up to 1.1042 and reached 1.1030 next day, thus ‘scoring a brace’ in football terms;
• the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228;
• the USD/JPY pair defied the majority opinion, which doesn’t always prove right. The analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis had almost unanimously predicted sideways movement for the pair. However, the pair started to fall mid-week, broke through the 122.20 support on Wednesday and reached the low of 120.57 on Friday;
• there was no clarity about USD/CHF. One of the scenarios was a fall to support around 0.9765. The pair did go down but stalled at 0.9800 without hitting the said bottom level.
  

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• most indicators, graphical analysis on H1 and 34% of the experts vote for EUR/USD to continue its upward trend to 1.1100. This is disputed by 66% of the experts, 25% of the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4. They believe that the pair will move sideways for some time, push off resistance at 1.1000, then break through support at 1.0900 and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is 1.0700, the next one is 100 points lower;
• as for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will be moving in the side channel within 1.4900-1.5250 with the pivot point at 1.5000. However, most indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 disagree. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching 1.5440 (followed by a roll down to 1.5300) and then 1.5500. Considering upcoming Christmas holidays, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;
• when drawing USD/JPY’s future movement, all indicators point downwards. Most analysts believe that 120.00 will be a very strong support level, bouncing off which the pair will go to resistance at 122.20 and possibly even higher to 123.20;
• all indicators on H4 show a fall for USD/CHF but on larger timeframes (D1 and W1) two-thirds of the indicators already point upward. As for the analysts, 30% reckon that USD/CHF hasn’t yet reached the bottom of 0.9650-0.9675. At the same time, 87% of the analysts agree that in the longer term, the pair should return to values above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives the pair two weeks to make it to 1.0250, with adjustments for the holiday season.
  

All forecasts may be subject to change as important economic data are released in the middle of the coming week.


Roman Butko, NordFX

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Holiday Schedule Forex Trading in NordFX

Dear Customers,

Please review the schedule of trading sessions for the Christmas and New Year holidays :



From 00:00 24.12.2015 to Monday’s opening 04.01.2016, margin call and stop out levels will be increased up to 100% for “Micro,” “Account 1:1000” and “Standard" accounts. In the absence of stable market liquidity, NordFX reserves the right to increase the spreads for the financial instruments on the quotation lists of “Micro”, “Account 1:1000” and “Welcome!” accounts, or to stop quoting on specific currency pairs (for any type of account) until the market situation is back to normal.

We’d like to remind you that low liquidity and unpredictable market movements characterize the holiday period. Therefore, NordFX recommends providing sufficient margin for positions that may remain open during the holidays, in order to prevent automatic liquidation of positions at an undesirable price.


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Forex Forecast for 21-25 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- the scenario for EUR/USD, backed by most analysts and the minority of the indicators, started to pan out. The pair spent some time in a sideways trend, broke through support at 1.0900 and went down. However, that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the pair didn’t reach support at 1.0700, stopping 150 points higher;

- the experts suggested that GBP/USD would be moving in a sideways channel of 1.4900-1.5250. It did happen – the pair pushed off the top boundary of the channel on Monday, went down decisively and came to a standstill at the bottom boundary of 1.4893 Friday night;

- the analysts were right about USD/JPY. In their opinion, the level of 120.00 was supposed to become very strong support, pushing off which the pair was to surge to resistance at 122.20 and then to 123.20. The latter level was reached on Friday thanks to the Bank of Japan's decision about its interest rate;

- there were varied opinions regarding USD/CHF again – some experts and indicators voted for a rise while others for a fall. The pair did just that – first, it went up a little, then dropped, then rose again and ended up 100 points higher in one week, although it doesn’t qualify yet as a full-on upward reversal.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Summarizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:

- most experts, with the indicators staying neutral, continue to insist on EUR/USD’s return to the values of the second half of November. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 elaborates that the pair may first try to break resistance at 1.0900 but after one or two unsuccessful attempts it will go down to support at 1.0700. The next support is 100 points lower;

- as for GBP/USD, all indicators clearly point downward. Being aware of the upcoming Christmas holidays unlike the indicators, the analysts predict the pair will transition into a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point. Graphical analysis on D1 supports them and indicates further bearish sentiment;

- the experts and graphical analysis on H4 reckon that USD/JPY will move sideways within 120.30-122.20. At the same time, the indicators on H4 and D1 point to the bears’ upper hand and insist that the pair won’t be able to break even the first resistance at 121.70;

- the general forecast for USD/CHF remains the same – back to around 1.0000. The experts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis agree with this. The immediate target is resistance at 1.0100. The next resistance is around 1.0150, support remains at 0.9800.

Roman Butko, NordFX