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July 5, 2015

+1 on that please. Or if there's a way to have the forecast emailed to us directly?

Dear friends,

Thank you for your interest. I would like to say that our forecasts appear both here and at our official facebook page practically at the same time. However, if it is more convenient to you, you may use my Facebook page.

July 5, 2015

Yuan 2020: Buy or Sell?

A recent report by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) says that China’s national currency got firmly established in the top 5 of the most used currencies of the world’s economy. Moreover, the share of yuan payments globally has been rising sharply and exceeded 2 percent. Even more impressive is the value of yuan transactions in international trade – one of these days it will surpass 10 percent.

Over the past five years, the yuan has turned into a major regional currency, primarily due to China’s trade integration with the main developing markets. In East Asia, there’s actually a bloc of countries that have pegged their national currencies to the yuan more than to the US dollar. They include Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and South Korea.

The

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts that by 2020 China will become the world’s second largest economy and Chinese population’s purchasing power will basically catch up with that of the United States.

HSBC experts echo the EIU opinion, albeit with an important reservation – The yuan is set to become a major world currency quite soon. However, it doesn’t mean that the yuan will replace the US dollar as a dominant reserve currency. Instead, it will help to create a more comprehensive system of reserve currencies, with the dollar, the euro and the yuan playing their respective part.

Pundits from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Washington, USA), one of the most renowned think tanks focused on international economics, say that the yuan would need 10 to 15 years to turn into a full-fledged reserve currency alongside the US dollar. Towards this end, China has to carry out a number of reforms and first of all open up the foreign and finance sectors of its economy.

Standard Chartered finance gurus differ on this and believe that by 2020 China won’t just catch up with the US economy but overtake it.

NordFX leading analyst John Gordon weighs in, “With this said, the key question is whether China’s government would want to deal with all the issues pertaining to turning the yuan into a global currency. On the one hand, China is obviously interested in becoming less dependent on the dollar but, on the other hand, it can be achieved only by loosening restrictions on its foreign exchange and capital markets at the very least. The fixed exchange rate shields the yuan from external speculative attacks. What will happen if this protection goes down and the yuan trades freely? Would China really want to see this rather risky process through?”

It’s no secret that from the very start of his first presidential term Barack Obama tried to put pressure on the Chinese government to quit devaluing the yuan rate artificially. But if the yuan is traded freely, Chinese products will get much more expensive, which, in turn, will hurt their competitiveness abroad and substantially change China’s export-orientated economy. Will Chinese leadership venture on this path?

“At NordFX, we closely watch everything related to financial markets, – continues John Gordon. – Judging by the latest rhetoric, Chinese authorities sound very decisive. It would suffice to recall that Yi Gang, Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced that China had already started talks with the IMF about including the yuan into the global reserve currency basket in the near future.”

According to this high-ranking official, the yuan meets all IMF requirements at this time. Hence, it appears that the issue has to do more with politics rather than economy.

As far as the Forex market is concerned, the main factor here is exchange rate fluctuations. Debating a five-year investment horizon for the yuan, many analysts predict it would rise by 15-17 percent. However, Yi Gang’s interview with Bloomberg in Beijing highlights two important things. First and undeniable is that the Chinese currency has been very stable over the last few years, and the other and thought-provoking is the assurance that the yuan will remain as stable in the future.

What’s also noteworthy is three main directions of China’s policy singled out in a Financial Times article:

- China tends to purchase fewer US Treasurys;

- China broadens its overseas expansion program;

- promotion of the yuan as a global currency is encouraged as it gradually sets China free from the dollar.

The Financial Times article seems to imply that the era of boundless privileges for the USA as the emitter of the main global currency is coming to an end. It is going to be replaced by a dual currency world – the US dollar and the yuan. However, due to the fact the yuan exchange rate was, is and will be fixed by the Chinese government for a while, the profitability of long-term yuan investments is rather questionable. Nonetheless, considering limited and controlled volatility, short-term speculations may actually appeal to traders.

July 5, 2015

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6-10 July 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast:

- the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;

- as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;

- the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;

- USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round:

- 64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;

- the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;

- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;

- the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.

In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.

Roman Butko, NordFX

July 5, 2015

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6-10 July 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast:

- the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;

- as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;

- the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;

- USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round:

- 64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;

- the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;

- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;

- the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.

In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.

Roman Butko, NordFX

July 5, 2015

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6-10 July 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast:

- the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;

- as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;

- the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;

- USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round:

- 64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;

- the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;

- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;

- the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.

In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.

Roman Butko, NordFX

July 6, 2015

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6-10 July 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast :

the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;

as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;

the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;

USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round :

64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;

the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;

the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;

the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.

In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.

Roman Butko, NordFX

July 8, 2015

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July 9, 2015

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Leverage 1:100;

Minimal lot 0.1;

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July 10, 2015

Enjoy the freedom of true Scalping and also reliability Server that never Requote with NordFX.

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July 12, 2015

Generalized Forex Forecast for 13-17 July 2015

Let’s start with a review of last week’s forecast:

- regarding EUR/USD, 64% of the analysts expected the pair to fall by at least 100-200 points while 18% of the analysts claimed that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Following the news from Greece, both forecasts were fulfilled – the week started with a gap of 140 points, on Tuesday the drop made the mentioned 200 points, then the pair started to go up and reached 1.1215 by the end of the week;

- the predictions for GBP/USD were also correct. According to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to go down to 1.5430-1.5500 mid-week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 marks. All of that happened indeed – GBP/USD descended to 1.5430 on Tuesday, reached its low of 1.5330 on Wednesday and then soared up to 1.5555;

- the experts, the technical indicators and the graphical analysis readings were only partly right about USD/JPY. Their forecast about the 122.00 support level held up for the first half of the week, after which the pair had a dive to 120.45. Then it made a U-turn, rushed upwards and ended up at the level of the beginning of the week, i.e. 122.75;

- the USD/CHF pair was expected to fall to 0.9330, and it did happen. After putting up resistance for a while, the pair crashed down at the end of the week. It was able to stay at the 0.9330 target jusе for one minute.

Forecast for this week. Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- just like last week, fluctuations on the currency market will largely depend on the events in Greece. At the same time, most experts (62%) and indicators (53%) predict that the EUR/USD pair will rise and move to around 1.1365. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates a possible sideways trend with support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.1215;

- as for GBP/USD, the opinions of the analysts (54% vs 46%) and indicator readings (H4 for a rise, D1 for a fall) diverge. Graphical analysis promises a repeat of last week’s scenario – the pair falling to around 1.5350 and then rising to resistance at 1.5555. In case of a breakthrough, the target will be 1.5930;

- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis are unanimous about USD/JPY returning to around 123.50. However, at the start of the week, a short-term fall to the support level of 122.00 can’t be ruled out;

- the opinions about USD/CHF are split, though the majority of the analysts (64%) believe that last Friday’s finishing level of 0.9380 will become the main resistance, off which the pair will be bouncing down towards 0.9330 or even lower to 0.9250. Graphical analysis, however, puts forward an alternative scenario with 0.9380 as support. The start of week is likely to reveal which of the two scenarios will actually play out.

Roman Butko, NordFX

July 12, 2015

Generalized Forex Forecast for 13-17 July 2015