Daily Market Analysis and Overview by Unitedpips

[Unitedpips]

BTCUSD Outlook: Breakout Retest Holds Above 110k



Introduction to BTC/USD
The BTCUSD pair tracks the value of Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD)—the world’s reserve currency. Often dubbed “digital gold” and the “king of crypto,” Bitcoin’s price in dollars remains the most watched benchmark in the digital‑asset market. Because the denominator is USD, shifts in US economic data and the dollar index frequently sway BTC/USD. This daily analysis (D1) blends price action, support and resistance, and indicator signals to frame today’s trading outlook.


BTCUSD Market Overview
On the daily time frame, BTC/USD continues to respect a rising (ascending) channel, keeping the broader structure bullish despite intermittent pullbacks. Over the last two sessions, buyers defended the breakout retest above the 110,000 zone and pushed price back toward the 118,000–120,000 psychological area. From the USD side, traders are focused on a dense run of US macro releases that tend to move the dollar—and by extension BTC/USD—via risk appetite and liquidity. The docket includes Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (ex‑Autos) from the Census Bureau, Import Price Index (BLS), Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve), Empire State Manufacturing Index (NY Fed), Business Inventories (Census), and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & 1‑yr Inflation Expectations. As a rule of thumb, stronger‑than‑forecast US data tends to support USD and can cap BTC/USD, while softer prints usually weaken USD, lift risk assets, and can help the pair extend higher. The next notable dates cluster in mid‑September (UoM on Sep 12; NY Fed on Sep 15; Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories on Sep 16), so positioning into those events may remain sensitive in the sessions ahead.



BTCUSD Technical Analysis
On the daily chart (D1), BTC/USD broke above 110,000, pulled back to retest that level, and is now bouncing from the lower boundary of a well‑defined ascending channel. Price is rotating toward the dashed median line of the channel, with immediate overhead supply layered near 118,500–120,000. Fibonacci expansion of the most recent impulse leg projects upside targets at ~133,000 (0.618) and ~148,900 (0.786) should momentum carry price through the midline and upper boundary. The Linear Regression Slope prints +346.13, confirming a positive trend bias and indicating that the path of least resistance remains higher while this reading stays elevated. The Momentum oscillator is near +4,295, signaling that bullish pressure is rebuilding after the retest; sustained readings above zero typically support trend continuation, though a flattening or rollover from here would warn of range development around the midline. Key support is stacked at the channel lower band and the 110,000–112,000 breakout shelf; a daily close below 110,000 would invalidate the bullish channel and expose deeper pullbacks toward prior swing zones. On strength, watch 120,000, then ~123,000–125,000 (intermediate resistance), before the Fibonacci targets at 133,000 and 148,900.


Final words about BTC vs USD
The BTC/USD daily outlook remains constructively bullish while price holds above 110,000 and inside the ascending channel. Bulls will look for follow‑through from the lower‑band reaction into the midline, and a firm daily close above 120,000 would strengthen the case for a run toward 133,000. Bears would need a decisive break back below 110,000 to shift control and put 100,000–105,000 back in view. Macro‑wise, upcoming US data could inject volatility—USD‑positive surprises may temporarily cap rallies, whereas USD‑negative outcomes could provide fuel for an extension toward the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci expansion levels. As always, align entries with the channel structure, respect psychological round numbers, and keep risk tight around invalidation levels on this BTC/USD daily analysis.


Disclaimer: This BTCUSD analysis, provided by Unitedpips, is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Always conduct your own Forex analysis before making any trading decisions.


08.15.2025

[Unitedpips]

EURJPY Trend, Momentum, and Trade Ideas Today



Introduction to EUR/JPY
The EURJPY pair (Euro vs Japanese Yen), often called “Euro-Yen” or referenced by its ticker EURJPY, is a widely followed FX cross that blends Eurozone macro dynamics with Japanese safe-haven flows. This currency pair is a popular barometer for global risk sentiment because it links the euro — sensitive to European growth and ECB policy — with the yen, which reacts strongly to risk aversion and BoJ policy shifts. Traders use EUR/JPY for directional plays, carry trades and macro hedges across emerging risk cycles. Daily monitoring of EUR/JPY technicals and macro releases is essential for precision entry and risk management in forex trading.


EURJPY Market Overview
On the daily chart EUR JPY is in a clear uptrend, with price making higher highs and higher lows as global risk appetite has supported cyclicals and the euro. Over the past two days the pair attempted a breakout toward the previous high near ~175.5 but the first attempt failed and pulled back briefly; however, buying pressure has returned and the market is attempting another run at that key resistance. From a macro perspective, the near-term news calendar for EUR/JPY is light but important: Eurostat’s trade balance (seasonally adjusted) can be currency-positive if ‘Actual’ prints above Forecast, while Japan’s METI business services spending is a leading indicator for corporate activity and JPY strength if it surprises to the upside. Because both releases tend to have muted-to-moderate impact, traders are watching risk sentiment, yield differentials and any ECB/BoJ comments that could amplify moves. Overall, the combination of improving momentum and a string of higher closes suggests bulls retain control in the short term, but a confirmed daily close above 175.5 is needed to validate the next leg higher.



EUR-JPY Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe EUR/JPY remains bullish and is currently challenging a multi-month resistance area: the prior swing high around 175.5 is the immediate obstacle for trend continuation. The chart also shows Fibonacci retracement zones from the last major swing, with 0.236 at ~161.16 and 0.382 at ~152.26 that acted as prior consolidation/support areas; price has cleared those zones and is trading well above them, confirming the medium-term uptrend. Momentum readings are supportive: the momentum oscillator sits at 2.337 (strengthening from the first breakout attempt) and the RSI is 57.54, indicating bullish bias but not yet overbought — giving room for more upside before typical RSI overbought thresholds. A rising dashed trendline underpins recent price action, and immediate support levels to watch are the psychological 170.00 area and the trendline confluence; failure below these could open a retest of the 161.16 Fibonacci level. Traders should look for a decisive daily close above 175.5 with expanding momentum as a breakout signal — alternatively, rejection there with bearish divergence or a close back below 170 would increase the odds of a deeper pullback into the Fib zone.


Final words about EUR vs JPY
EURJPY’s daily picture favors the bulls, but the pair is at a technical crossroads where a confirmed breakout or a clear rejection will define the next directional opportunity. If EUR/JPY closes convincingly above 175.5 with continued momentum and RSI staying elevated, the next targets are the 178.00–180.00 area and then extension toward higher round levels; traders can consider trend-following entries on breakout retests with stops beneath the breakout candles. Conversely, failure at resistance or signs of momentum fading would warrant caution and could lead to a decline toward 170 and the 161.16 Fibonacci support, where buyers previously stepped in. Keep a close eye on Eurostat trade balance and METI services-spending releases for short-term volatility, plus any ECB/BoJ commentary or global risk events that can quickly flip yen flows. As always, combine technical confirmation with disciplined risk management — position size, stop placement, and a clear plan are essential when trading EUR/JPY on the daily chart.


Disclaimer: This EURJPY analysis, provided by Unitedpips, is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Always conduct your own Forex analysis before making any trading decisions.


08.18.2025

[Unitedpips]

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: Key Levels to Watch Today



Introduction to USD/CAD
The US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar pair (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar) tracks the exchange rate between the United States dollar and the Canadian dollar — a major FX pair often shortened to USD/CAD. This cross is widely watched by FX traders because it links the world’s largest economy to a major commodity exporter; many market participants refer to this pairing when assessing commodity, interest rate and North American macro risk. USD/CAD is sensitive to US economic data, Canadian inflation, and global crude oil price moves, so traders use this pair for both directional FX trades and macro hedging. Understanding USD/CAD price action helps traders manage risk around key economic releases and energy market shifts.


USDCAD Market Overview
On the daily chart, USD/CAD is currently in a consolidation (sideways) range after a pronounced bearish trend that took the pair lower earlier this year. Over the last two trading days the market has probed the upper boundary of the range but failed to sustain a breakout, leaving price action mixed and range-bound into the current day and near-term. Key macro drivers are lined up on the economic calendar: Canada’s suite of Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures (All-Items CPI, CPI Ex-volatile items and other CPI variants) are due and remain market-moving — stronger-than-expected Canadian CPI would normally be USD/CAD bearish (CAD strengthens), while softer readings would favor the US dollar. For the United States, housing data (building permits and housing starts) and a Federal Reserve speaker (Governor Michelle Bowman) are high-probability volatility triggers across the next 24–48 hours; any hawkish Fed tone supports the US dollar and can push USD/CAD higher. Finally, weekly API/EIA oil inventory updates are also relevant: Canadian dollar flows tend to correlate with crude oil prices, so a surprise draw or build in inventories can amplify moves in USD/CAD.



USD-CAD Technical Analysis
Price action shows the market entered a clear sideways trend after the earlier bearish leg and has tested the consolidation zone several times without a convincing breakout. If the market resolves to the upside, the obvious resistance target sits at 1.39751, a level with recent historical rejection and the next area for profit-taking on longs. Conversely, a downside resolution would expose the pair to 1.34494 — an historically significant support level that held prior lows and would be the logical target for sellers. The Williams Alligator indicator currently has its three lines positioned below the candles (with the Lips above and the Jaw below), suggesting a tame bullish bias inside the range but no confirmed trending momentum yet — classic of an Alligator “sleeping/awakening” phase during consolidation. The Chaikin Oscillator reading (around ~28.75K) shows healthy accumulation pressure but not runaway buying, consistent with range accumulation rather than a breakout impulse. The Awesome Oscillator histogram is green at ~0.00677, indicating short-term bullish momentum is present but weak; combined with moving averages hugging price, this points to a likely range-bound environment until a macro catalyst (CPI, Fed comments, or oil data) creates directional conviction. Support and resistance remain well-defined; traders should watch price reaction to moving averages and the rectangle boundaries for breakout confirmation or false-break retracement setups.


Final words about USD vs CAD
In summary, USD/CAD on the daily timeframe is a range-biased FX pair right now — the market is consolidating after a bearish trend and has repeatedly failed to achieve a sustainable breakout. Short-term directional moves are likely to be driven by upcoming Canadian CPI prints, US housing data and Fed commentary, and oil inventory numbers; monitor those events in the economic calendar as they can flip the technical bias quickly. For traders, clean entry setups are preferable: buy dips toward the range floor with tight stops if the pair shows accumulation, or wait for a confirmed breakout above 1.39751 with volume and indicator confirmation before running trend-following longs. On the downside, a breakdown beneath the consolidation toward 1.34494 would offer a lower-risk shorting opportunity, especially if accompanied by weak Canadian CPI or risk-off flows and falling oil prices. Always combine macro event risk management (stop placement around the key levels) with technical confirmation — USD/CAD reacts strongly to macro surprises and commodity moves, so position sizing and news awareness are essential.


Disclaimer: This USDCAD analysis, provided by Unitedpips, is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Always conduct your own Forex analysis before making any trading decisions.


08.19.2025