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[Volkov Yuriy]

#ASX: The 9,000 countdown has begun

On August 7, 2025, the #ASX index surged to an all-time high of 8,856.9 points, driven by a rare mix of catalysts: soaring gold prices lifting major miners, expectations of simultaneous easing by the RBA and the Fed boosting bank and media-tech stocks, and steady demand for iron ore and base metals pushing BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue higher. A global “risk-on” sentiment amid falling U.S. yields and short-covering added extra fuel.

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Five key drivers that could push the #ASX to new heights:

• China’s 2025 infrastructure push: Beijing is preparing an expanded lending package for transport and energy projects. This fuels iron ore and copper imports — directly boosting revenues for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, which make up ~25% of the index.
• Gold rally continues: The expected Fed rate cut in September pressures U.S. yields and supports gold prices. Even a move toward $3,500/oz could revive Northern Star, Evolution, and Newmont, adding dozens of points to the index.
• Dovish RBA + weak AUD: Further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (with AUDUSD staying below 0.64) make domestic loans cheaper while increasing export margins for resource and agri stocks.
• Green metals boom: Rising global demand for lithium, nickel, and rare earths for batteries and renewables is driving up valuations of Pilbara Minerals, IGO, Lynas, and others — boosting the materials sector’s contribution to index growth.
• Housing sector reversal: Lower mortgage rates and tax breaks for first-home buyers are lifting transaction volumes and online demand via REA Group. Rising home prices traditionally ignite banking and construction stocks, creating a multiplier effect on the index.

#ASX has already climbed near the top — and it has at least five major “boosters” for another rally. According to FreshForex, the index could break above 9,000 even faster if three extra catalysts come into play:

• Superannuation fund inflows shift toward equities, adding long-term capital.
• Buybacks and M&A by giants like BHP and Commonwealth Bank reduce float and boost EPS.
• A fresh IPO wave of lithium and AI startups injects new tech momentum.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Crypto is taking off: BTC at $122k — are new records next?

On 11 August BTC climbed above $122,000 — just a step from July’s record of $123,091. Ethereum is holding at multi-year highs. By market estimates, total crypto market capitalization is back above $4T.

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Momentum came from net inflows into crypto ETPs/ETFs (especially spot ETFs on BTC/ETH), upbeat signals around expanding access for U.S. retirement accounts to alternative assets, and bets on a Fed rate cut this fall — together accelerating prices and liquidity in the leaders.

Five trend accelerators:

1. Institutions & policy. July–August brought signals about broadening the menu of assets for U.S. retirement plans — the market expects “long” money.
    
2. ETF/ETP effect. Net inflows into BTC and ETH products are accelerating — a direct catalyst for spot demand.
    
3. Macro. Expectations of a dovish Fed lower real yields and support “scarce” assets like digital gold.
    
4. Supply. The recent halving and coins leaving exchanges reduce free float — price reacts more strongly to the same demand.
    
5. ETH stack. L2 activity, spot-ETF inflows and tokenization of real-world assets strengthen ETH’s role and typically kick off altseason.

FreshForex view. Current BTCUSD and ETHCUSD levels fit tactical longs — only with strict risk control and tracking CPI and net inflows/outflows in spot ETFs on BTC/ETH.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Summer RALLY-2025: What’s Driving #SP500 and #NQ100 Higher?
 

Dear readers, earlier on June 25, 2025, in our article “Unexpected Surges and Drops in the Indices” we noted the U.S. economy’s readiness for bullish sentiment.

On August 12, 2025 #SP500 climbed above 6,400, and #NQ100 hit a new high above 23,800 as U.S. inflation came in softer than expected, prompting the market to believe in an imminent Fed rate cut — money became “cheaper,” making stocks more attractive. Tech giants and all things AI — chips and cloud — are in high demand and lead the gains. Many companies have reported earnings above forecasts, and buybacks are underway, supporting prices. A weaker dollar is also boosting the revenues of multinational corporations. As a result, investors are buying more aggressively, pushing indices to new records.

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5 Reasons Why #S&P500 and #NQ100 Could Hold Their Ground Until the End of 2025:

1. Dovish Fed. Rate cuts → cheaper money → higher valuations.

2. AI and data center boom. Growing demand for chips, cloud, and software lifts the tech sector.

3. Profits + buybacks. Companies beat forecasts and repurchase shares → EPS growth and price support.

4. Low yields and weaker dollar. Stocks look more attractive than bonds; exporters earn more easily.

5. Domestic investment in the U.S. Localized production and infrastructure fuel demand for tech and industry.

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The foundation of #SP500 and #NQ100 growth is profit. The earnings season added confidence: market participants liked the “breadth” of earnings beats and the resilience of margins among major issuers — the third pillar of the current rally. According to FreshForex, soft inflation and expectations of a Fed rate cut create a window of opportunity for long positions in #SP500 and #NQ100.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Rally Japanese style: #NIKKEI breaks records

On August 18, 2025, #NIKKEI hit a new all-time high (43,929). The main driver of growth was the weakening of the yen, which instantly improved export expectations and pushed up automakers: Toyota and Honda were among the leaders. plus positive corporate outlooks and an influx of foreign money amid global expectations of interest rate cuts. Banks and some chip stocks pulled in the opposite direction that day, but the weight of the auto sector and consumer leaders was enough to make the session a “record-breaking” one. 

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#NIKKEI on the rise: 5 keys to growth in 2025:

 1. Yen exchange rate ↔ exports. A weak/volatile yen supports the margins and multipliers of exporters (automotive, industrial electronics), so any periods of currency weakness remain a catalyst for the index. 

 2. Soft global “rate” background. The market is pricing in a high probability of an Fed rate cut; the cheaper dollar and general risk appetite are fueling flows into Japanese stocks, especially beneficiaries of external demand. 

 3. Corporate reforms and buybacks. Strengthened corporate governance practices, stock market pressure to increase ROE/PB, and growth in share buyback programs remain long-term supports for the rally. 

 4. Industrial cycle: automotive and “new electronics.” Models with high export leverage (automotive, EV/ADAS components, semiconductor equipment) are benefiting from global fleet renewal and growth in technology CAPEX, which is maintaining the profitability of Nikkei's “core” weights. (Inference based on current trends and index structure; confirmed by the composition of session leaders.)

 5. Domestic demand and earnings. Moderate wage growth and improved corporate earnings forecasts for the second half of the year are boosting the resilience of domestic demand — another plus for estimates.

The current surge is a classic mix of a weak yen + strong exporters + soft global rates. If corporate reforms and buybacks continue to work and external demand does not “collapse,” the #NIKKEI has a chance to stay close to record levels. FreshForex analysts remind us of the possible risks — a sharp reversal of the yen, delays in trade agreements, and possible tightening by the Bank of Japan — but the underlying backdrop is still playing in favor of the bulls.

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