Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.05.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF currency pair today faces significant fundamental factors from both currencies. The USD is influenced by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee’s speech at mHUB’s Industry Disruptor Series, expected to hint at future monetary policies. Additionally, key economic indicators like Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and changes in labor costs could generate substantial volatility, particularly if actual figures deviate from forecasts. For CHF, traders will closely monitor Switzerland’s foreign currency reserves data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), alongside consumer sentiment released by SECO, providing insight into Switzerland's economic strength and central bank policy adjustments.


Price Action:
USD-CHF on the H4 chart currently exhibits sideways price movement within a well-defined rectangle pattern. After a recent bounce from the channel's lower support line, prices are now testing a descending resistance line. This technical scenario, combined with divergence observed in recent downtrend movements, suggests weakening bearish momentum, potentially setting the stage for bullish action targeting the channel’s upper boundary and subsequently the upper band of the rectangular consolidation range.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (35): The Relative Strength Index stands at 52, indicating neutral market sentiment. Currently, there's no immediate overbought or oversold condition, providing room for price to move upwards towards resistance levels.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD is at 0.000804, slightly above its signal line at 0.000658. This crossover signals a mildly bullish momentum which supports a potential rise towards upper resistance.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic is at 65.8 and 73.9, reflecting bullish sentiment but approaching overbought territory. Traders should cautiously watch for potential short-term pullbacks once overbought levels are reached.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is found at the lower trend line at approximately 0.7997. A break below this could lead prices towards deeper support near 0.7970.
Resistance: Current resistance lies at the descending trend line around 0.8060, with significant resistance at the upper rectangle boundary around 0.8090.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CHF technical and fundamental analysis on the H4 chart shows a sideways movement with potential bullish tendencies supported by RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators. Given today’s substantial fundamental data releases for both USD and CHF, heightened volatility is expected. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully, paying close attention to breakout confirmations above resistance levels or breakdowns below support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.05.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.10.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD) remains highly sensitive to global macroeconomic news and upcoming US data releases. Today, traders will be watching the US API Weekly Statistical Bulletin along with upcoming EIA crude oil inventories and wholesale inventories reports, which can influence USD liquidity and risk sentiment. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release in October remains a key inflation measure, affecting Federal Reserve policy expectations. Given the strong correlation between USD strength and Bitcoin’s volatility, any deviation from forecasts in these indicators could lead to sharp intraday price movements.

Price Action:
After recording a new all-time high at 124,508 USD on August 14th, BTC/USD entered a corrective downtrend, touching the 0% Fibonacci retracement at 107,250 USD. Since then, the pair has rebounded and broken above the 23.6% retracement level, before testing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci zone near 113,400 USD. However, price failed twice to break above this level, pulling back towards 23.6%. A new ascending trendline has formed, showing a gradual bullish recovery with the latest candle bouncing off support. Traders should closely monitor whether Bitcoin can sustain above the trendline and attempt another retest of the 38.2% retracement level.

Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last two Parabolic SAR dots appeared above the candles, signaling ongoing bearish pressure. A new SAR dot forming below the candles would be an early confirmation of a potential bullish continuation in BTC/USD on the H4 timeframe.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is currently at 47.91, indicating a neutral zone slightly below the 50 level. This suggests that BTC/USD is neither overbought nor oversold, and momentum remains balanced but fragile.
Williams %R (14): Currently at -70.11, the Williams %R suggests that Bitcoin is leaning towards oversold conditions but not yet fully extended. This could indicate a potential bounce if buyers defend the trendline and 23.6% Fibonacci support.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support rests near 110,300 USD, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and ascending trendline.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 113,400 USD, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone, followed by stronger resistance at 115,600 USD.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTC/USD H4 technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently consolidating between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels after rebounding from its local low at 107,250 USD. The neutral RSI, oversold Williams %R, and Parabolic SAR positioning highlight indecision, but the ascending trendline supports a short-term bullish bias. Traders should monitor whether Bitcoin can sustain above the 110,300 USD support to retest 113,400 USD resistance. A breakout above this level could extend gains towards 115,600 USD, while a break below the trendline may trigger another downside test near 107,250 USD.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
09.10.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.11.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis: 
Today, significant volatility may influence the EUR/USD pair due to multiple economic releases. For the USD, traders await crucial CPI (Consumer Price Index) data excluding food and energy from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Higher-than-expected inflation typically strengthens the USD, leading markets to anticipate tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, initial jobless claims and natural gas storage data could further affect USD strength. Conversely, the EUR faces potential volatility from the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming announcements, including the interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference, where any hawkish stance could bolster the Euro.

Price Action: 
EUR-USD analysis on the H4 timeframe indicates a bullish trend with current prices encountering significant resistance from a historical zone dating back to early 2023. Recently, price action showed indecision marked by Doji and Pin bar candlesticks, suggesting a potential reversal from current levels. However, the price is presently supported strongly by this historical zone, indicating that if the bullish sentiment prevails, the next logical target is the upper boundary of the existing ascending channel.

Key Technical Indicators: 
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51.41, reflecting neutral market conditions. This suggests that the pair has significant room for movement in either direction before reaching overbought or oversold conditions, supporting potential bullish continuation. 
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows a positive value (0.000223) with the MACD line above the signal line (0.000986), indicating bullish momentum. However, the small magnitude implies caution, as bullish strength may not be very robust. 
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator, with current readings at 40.44 and 37.34, recently experienced a cross under the 20-level, signaling a previous oversold scenario that might lead to renewed bullish interest if momentum continues upward.

Support and Resistance: 
Support: Immediate support is noted clearly at 1.15930, aligning with historical significance and recent consolidation.
Resistance: Key resistance stands at 1.18650, coinciding with the upper boundary of the ascending channel and previous swing highs, making it a significant upside target.

Conclusion and Consideration: 
EUR/USD on the H4 chart shows ongoing bullish sentiment underpinned by historical support and key technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming US CPI data and ECB's interest rate decision for potential triggers of significant market moves. Caution is advised due to recent price indecision indicated by Doji and Pin bar formations, suggesting a potential reversal or increased volatility. Always employ proper risk management strategies.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
09.11.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.12.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP-USD pair today faces significant volatility potential stemming from major economic releases. From the UK, traders eagerly await key data from the Office for National Statistics, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Construction Output, Trade Balance, Gross Value Added (GVA), and both Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures. Positive readings compared to forecasts can significantly strengthen GBP, indicating robust economic health and potentially increasing bullish momentum. Conversely, the US Dollar (USD) eyes the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Stronger-than-expected data could boost USD, exerting bearish pressure on GBP/USD.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe exhibits a classic ascending triangle formation, indicative of bullish pressure. Price action has repeatedly tested the clearly defined horizontal resistance (supply zone) around 1.2576 (orange zone). Concurrently, the pair demonstrates consistently rising higher lows along the ascending teal trendline. The previous downtrend (red line) has been decisively broken, suggesting a bullish shift. Traders should closely monitor a confirmed breakout via a solid H4 close above resistance or below rising support to identify directional bias.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (90): The EMA (90) has consistently supported GBPUSD's price, reinforcing bullish sentiment. It currently acts as dynamic support, underpinning recent higher lows and guiding price upward.
RSI (14): At 64, the RSI indicator on GBPUSD indicates solid bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This signals room for further upside potential before exhaustion sets in, supporting bullish continuation.
Stoch (5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator registers values of 94 and 87, suggesting immediate short-term overbought conditions. This indicates caution for potential short-term corrections, despite broader bullish momentum.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies along the ascending trendline around 1.2480. Secondary support is significantly lower, near the prior demand zone and breakout base at approximately 1.2300.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is established at the flat supply zone around 1.2576. A decisive break above this level opens potential bullish targets near 1.2700-1.2750 based on measured moves.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP-USD pair's current H4 analysis signals bullish potential supported by ascending triangle price action, reinforced by EMA (90), RSI, and Stochastic indicators. However, the overbought Stochastic signals potential short-term volatility and pullbacks. Upcoming key economic data releases from both GBP and USD can significantly influence market dynamics and catalyze the breakout direction. Traders should wait for a clear H4 candle close outside the triangle to confirm entry, using prudent stop-loss placements and volatility buffers to manage breakout risks effectively.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.12.2025