Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.05.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF currency pair today faces significant fundamental factors from both currencies. The USD is influenced by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee’s speech at mHUB’s Industry Disruptor Series, expected to hint at future monetary policies. Additionally, key economic indicators like Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and changes in labor costs could generate substantial volatility, particularly if actual figures deviate from forecasts. For CHF, traders will closely monitor Switzerland’s foreign currency reserves data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), alongside consumer sentiment released by SECO, providing insight into Switzerland's economic strength and central bank policy adjustments.


Price Action:
USD-CHF on the H4 chart currently exhibits sideways price movement within a well-defined rectangle pattern. After a recent bounce from the channel's lower support line, prices are now testing a descending resistance line. This technical scenario, combined with divergence observed in recent downtrend movements, suggests weakening bearish momentum, potentially setting the stage for bullish action targeting the channel’s upper boundary and subsequently the upper band of the rectangular consolidation range.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (35): The Relative Strength Index stands at 52, indicating neutral market sentiment. Currently, there's no immediate overbought or oversold condition, providing room for price to move upwards towards resistance levels.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD is at 0.000804, slightly above its signal line at 0.000658. This crossover signals a mildly bullish momentum which supports a potential rise towards upper resistance.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic is at 65.8 and 73.9, reflecting bullish sentiment but approaching overbought territory. Traders should cautiously watch for potential short-term pullbacks once overbought levels are reached.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is found at the lower trend line at approximately 0.7997. A break below this could lead prices towards deeper support near 0.7970.
Resistance: Current resistance lies at the descending trend line around 0.8060, with significant resistance at the upper rectangle boundary around 0.8090.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CHF technical and fundamental analysis on the H4 chart shows a sideways movement with potential bullish tendencies supported by RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators. Given today’s substantial fundamental data releases for both USD and CHF, heightened volatility is expected. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully, paying close attention to breakout confirmations above resistance levels or breakdowns below support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.05.2025