Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.05.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair is subject to notable volatility today, given the release of key economic indicators for both currencies. For the British Pound (GBP), traders are closely watching the UK's Services PMI from S&P Global and results from the Debt Management Office's 10-year bond auctions. These indicators could heavily influence the GBP’s strength, reflecting current market conditions and investors' outlook on UK economic health. For the US Dollar (USD), attention will be drawn towards the trade balance report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as well as the Services PMI from both S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). These indicators could lead to volatility in the USD, impacting GBPUSD trading conditions significantly.

Price Action:
GBPUSD price action on the H4 chart indicates a predominant bearish trend. After a short reversal, bearish momentum resumed with notable strength. Each drop in price has been accompanied by minor and flat corrective phases. The most recent correction is sharper, currently hovering between Fibonacci retracement levels of 23.6% and 38.2%. Should these levels fail to contain the correction, the next critical resistance area lies at 1.33902, historically a zone with significant price reactions. The RSI divergence pattern suggests a likely continuation of the bearish trend.

Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line stands at -0.002930, with the histogram level at -0.001413, indicating that bearish momentum persists but is currently weaker. Traders should monitor for potential crossovers signaling either continued bearish momentum or a reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator currently hovers around the 50.36 level, signifying a neutral market sentiment. Given the RSI divergence with higher highs compared to the lower highs in price, traders should anticipate potential bearish continuation.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the current candles, signaling the potential continuation of the correction phase. This indicator reinforces the likelihood of upward continuation unless reversed by a clear downward move.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at the recent low around the 1.31730 level, serving as a crucial psychological and technical floor.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is marked at 1.33902, aligning with significant historical price reactions and the Fibonacci retracement levels.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD technical and fundamental analysis for the H4 timeframe underscores ongoing bearish sentiment, supported by RSI divergence, MACD weakening bearish momentum, and Parabolic SAR alignment. The upcoming economic news from the UK and the US could significantly affect volatility and market direction. Traders should remain cautious, factoring in these fundamental releases to refine their strategies.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
08.05.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.06.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NZD/USD H4 technical and fundamental analysis is influenced by a significant wave of economic data from New Zealand and the United States. From the NZD side, market participants are closely watching employment figures, unemployment rates, and labor cost changes. These indicators are essential for understanding the health of New Zealand’s labor market, a crucial driver of consumer spending and inflation. While no releases are scheduled for today, anticipation builds for the next quarterly labor data in early November, potentially setting the tone for the NZD in the coming weeks. On the USD side, attention shifts to energy-related reports and monetary policy commentary. Crude Oil Inventory levels from the EIA, expected later this week, may impact overall risk sentiment and indirectly influence USD valuation. Moreover, FOMC members Lisa Cook and Susan Collins are scheduled to speak today. Their commentary could offer crucial insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction, influencing USD demand and NZD-USD exchange rates.


Price Action:
The NZD/USD price action on the H4 chart has shown a predominantly bearish trend. After a significant downward movement, the pair touched the 0.58565 support area, which coincides with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level. Following that, the price rebounded toward the 23.6% Fib level, struggling to establish a clear breakout. Despite forming three consecutive bullish (green) candles, the most recent candle has turned red, suggesting hesitation from the bulls at this critical resistance zone. The pair remains range-bound between the 0.58565 support and 0.58990 resistance, consolidating below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The NZD/USD price has been fluctuating between the lower and middle Bollinger Bands, indicating low volatility and range-bound behavior. After briefly touching the lower band, the price is attempting to break through the middle band, aligning with the 23.6% Fib level. However, the rejection shown by the red candle suggests resistance and potential consolidation unless a clear bullish breakout occurs.
Parabolic SAR: The last four Parabolic SAR dots are aligned above the price candles, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. Until the dots flip below the candles, momentum remains in favor of the bears, and traders may look for selling opportunities near resistance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI stands at 45.40, which is below the neutral 50 level, indicating slight bearish momentum. It is not in oversold territory, so there is still room for further downside before the market becomes technically oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is at -0.000947, with the signal line at -0.001093, and the histogram is gradually turning positive. This could suggest that bearish momentum is weakening, and a potential crossover could occur soon. However, confirmation is required for a trend reversal signal.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support lies around 0.58565, which is aligned with the recent low and the 0.0 Fibonacci level, acting as a psychological and technical floor.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is found at 0.59000, near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the middle Bollinger Band, forming a strong confluence area.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In today’s NZD/USD H4 chart forecast, the pair is attempting to recover from its recent lows but faces stiff resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR suggest consolidation or potential downside continuation, while the RSI and MACD hint at possible bullish momentum buildup. Fundamental factors remain balanced, with upcoming U.S. central bank commentary and crude oil inventory data possibly tilting sentiment in favor of the USD. Traders should remain cautious and watch for a breakout from the current range to determine the next directional bias.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.06.2025
 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.07.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis: 
Today's EURUSD fundamental outlook shows significant market-moving events primarily from the USD side. Key releases include initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor, labor productivity and unit labor costs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and wholesale inventories from the Census Bureau. The market typically reacts positively to lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and labor productivity figures, as these signal economic strength. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's fireside chat will draw close attention as investors look for insights into future monetary policy directions. For EUR, attention will focus primarily on upcoming trade balance and industrial output data from Destatis and economic bulletins from the ECB.

Price Action: 
The EURUSD H4 price action demonstrates a strong bullish trend following a sharp reversal from previous bearish momentum. After an earlier consolidation phase, the EURUSD began another notable bullish impulse, breaking decisively above previous resistance levels. The latest candles, however, indicate a possible correction as traders secure profits, but based on Fibonacci retracement analysis, prices are likely to remain above the 23.6% retracement level before resuming bullish momentum. The key target for this bullish run is identified at 1.17682, a previously significant reactionary level.

Key Technical Indicators:
Williams %R: The indicator is hovering around the -9.10 level, suggesting the EURUSD H4 is currently in an overbought territory. Although this signals potential short-term pullbacks, the strong bullish momentum remains evident, and a slight correction is probable before further bullish moves.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator on the EURUSD H4 chart is currently hovering near 67.02, just below the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates that while bullish momentum remains robust, there's potential for minor consolidation or corrective moves to relieve bullish pressure before continuing upwards.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands on EURUSD H4 have recently expanded, illustrating a strong bullish momentum and heightened volatility. Current price candles have reached the upper band, implying potential short-term retracement or sideways movement as the market consolidates gains before advancing further.

Support and Resistance: 
Support: Immediate support aligns at the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at around 1.15992, serving as a robust floor for potential retracement. 
Resistance: The primary resistance target stands firmly at 1.17682, reflecting historical price reaction significance.

Conclusion and Consideration: 
EURUSD's H4 timeframe analysis indicates bullish dominance, supported by technical indicators like Williams %R, RSI, and Bollinger Bands. Short-term corrections are expected but likely limited above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. Traders should closely monitor today's USD economic releases and speeches from Fed representatives, as these could introduce volatility. EUR-specific data could provide additional directional cues.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
08.07.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.08.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD currency pair could see increased volatility today as markets prepare for high-impact USD and CAD news releases. On the USD side, remarks from US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem may influence expectations for fiscal policy and interest rate direction. Any hawkish language from the Fed could strengthen the USD. From the CAD side, key employment change and unemployment rate data will be released by Statistics Canada. Strong labor market results would likely boost the Canadian Dollar, putting downward pressure on USDCAD. Traders should monitor these events closely, as the combination of US political and monetary commentary with Canadian economic data could spark significant intraday moves.


Price Action:
After a sharp bullish rally, USDCAD broke its uptrend line with a strong bearish candle, pulling back into the previously broken zone near 1.37646. Price is currently consolidating around this level, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. Given the recent momentum, the correction phase could be near completion. If buying pressure returns, the next upside target could be 1.38201, while further selling momentum could push the price toward 1.37391 as the next potential reversal point.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Last few dots are above the price, confirming the current bearish bias. However, the flatter alignment of recent dots suggests a slowdown in bearish momentum, which could pave the way for a bullish reversal if supported by fundamentals.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 50.78, reflecting neutral conditions. The market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction.
MACD (12,26,9): With the MACD line at 0.000181 and the signal line at 0.000815, momentum appears to be weakening. The histogram is edging toward negative territory, aligning with the consolidation phase and hinting at potential bearish continuation unless buying volume increases.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.37646, which represents the current consolidation area and a previously broken level now acting as a test zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.38201, which aligns with recent highs and serves as the next upside target if bullish momentum resumes.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 chart is showing a consolidation phase after breaking its bullish structure. Parabolic SAR remains bearish, RSI is neutral, and MACD indicates fading bullish momentum. With today’s US speeches and Canadian employment data ahead, traders should expect volatility spikes. A confirmed break above 1.38201 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below 1.37646 might open the way to 1.37391. Caution is advised, and confirmation from both technical and fundamental cues should guide trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.08.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

ETH/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.11.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Ethereum (ETHUSD) continues to show strong bullish sentiment, supported by the broader crypto market recovery and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Today, traders will closely watch the USD inflation expectations release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. This quarterly survey gauges business managers' views on price changes over the next 12 months. If the actual figure surpasses forecasts, the US Dollar may strengthen, potentially adding short-term selling pressure on ETHUSD. However, Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals remain robust with sustained demand for decentralized applications (dApps) and Layer-2 scaling solutions, suggesting any dips could attract new buyers.


Price Action
After a prolonged consolidation phase, ETH-USD has surged aggressively, attacking its recent high near $4,140. The strong bullish impulse broke through previous resistance zones, with the price briefly touching $4,204 before pulling back slightly. This resistance level is significant, and although the first breakout attempt might face profit-taking, the momentum suggests that ETHUSD could eventually break above it and head toward its all-time high (ATH). The recent move is characterized by high volume and acceleration, indicating strong market participation from buyers.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The last few Parabolic SAR dots are positioned well below the price, with the gap widening. This reflects strong bullish acceleration and sustained momentum, confirming the current uptrend in ETHUSD.
RSI (14): Currently at 81.44, well above the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates strong buying pressure but also warns of a potential short-term correction before continuation.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line at 105.099 is significantly above the signal line at 60.984, with widening histogram bars. This divergence between the two lines shows increasing bullish momentum and confirms the strength of the ongoing uptrend.
Stochastic (5,3,3): With readings of 91 and 76, the Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, signaling that while the bullish trend is strong, the market could be due for a short-term consolidation or minor pullback before another upward push.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 3,473.21, which aligns with the lower consolidation boundary and a previous price reaction zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 4,140.47, which coincides with the recent breakout point, followed by 4,204.37, marking the latest intraday high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The ETH-USD H4 chart shows a decisive breakout attempt from its recent consolidation, supported by strong bullish momentum across all major technical indicators. While the RSI and Stochastic suggest overbought conditions, the widening Parabolic SAR and bullish MACD divergence confirm the strength of the move. Traders should watch for a possible retest of $4,140 as support before another rally attempt toward $4,300–$4,400 and eventually the ATH. Given the upcoming USD inflation expectations release, short-term volatility is likely. A stronger USD may create temporary selling pressure, but Ethereum’s current trend and market structure remain bullish.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.11.2025
 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis 08.12.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis
The AUD-USD currency pair is currently influenced by mixed signals from both the Australian and US economic fronts. Today’s key upcoming AUD-related releases include the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence report, a leading indicator of business sentiment that can foreshadow future economic activity such as hiring and investment. Additionally, traders are awaiting further clarity from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its interest rate outlook ahead of the September 30 meeting. From the US side, market focus will shift to the NFIB Small Business Index and later this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which remains a major driver for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Speeches from Fed officials Thomas Barkin and Jeffrey Schmid could add volatility to USD pairs as traders seek clues on the next monetary policy steps.

Price Action
On the H4 chart, AUD USD has been trading within a long-term ascending trend channel following a recovery from its March low. Price is now locked in a sideways daily range within this upward channel, with the current battle occurring around the mid-line of the daily channel. The pair is showing hesitation, with momentum not strong enough to convincingly break above the mid-range resistance. If the bulls fail to secure this breakout, a retracement toward the lower trendline of the channel—and potentially the lower boundary of the sideways range—is likely. Conversely, a successful breakout could open the path toward the upper band of the daily range.

Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling a potential volatility squeeze. The price is currently testing the middle line of the Bands, which aligns with the mid-range resistance of the sideways channel. This compression suggests that a breakout move—either up or down—may occur soon, but given the weaker bullish momentum, the downside risk appears slightly higher.
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index is at 51.69, reflecting a neutral momentum state. This position shows neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which supports the case for potential range-bound trading in the near term. The RSI does not currently show strong bullish divergence, reinforcing the risk of a corrective move.
MACD (24,52,12): The MACD main line (0.000523) is marginally above the signal line (0.000426), and the histogram has recently crossed above the zero line. While this suggests a mild bullish bias, the histogram’s low amplitude indicates that momentum is still weak and susceptible to reversal. A bearish crossover here could accelerate a drop toward support.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.6440, which aligns with the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel and recent price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.6529, which coincides with the mid-line of the sideways daily channel and recent highs.

Conclusion and Consideration
The AUD/USD H4 chart shows a market at a critical juncture, trading at the mid-line resistance of a sideways daily channel within an ascending trend structure. While the narrowing Bollinger Bands point toward an upcoming breakout, the combination of a neutral RSI and a weak MACD histogram suggests the upside lacks conviction. This makes a downward correction toward 0.6440 more probable unless strong bullish momentum emerges. Traders should closely monitor today’s NAB Business Confidence report and speeches from US Fed officials for potential catalysts.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
08.12.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.13.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CAD currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today, the Euro’s performance is influenced by key German economic releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which serve as leading inflation indicators. Higher-than-expected results could strengthen the Euro by reinforcing expectations for tighter European Central Bank policy. Additionally, the Bund Auction provides insight into investor sentiment toward Eurozone bonds. On the Canadian side, the market awaits the Bank of Canada (BOC) Minutes, which could reveal the central bank’s economic outlook and potential shifts in interest rate policy. Any hawkish tone may boost the CAD, creating increased volatility in EURCAD price action.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, EURCAD is in a clear bullish trend, trading within a rising wedge pattern. The pair recently broke above short-term resistance, approaching the upper boundary near 1.61100. Price action shows strong upward momentum with the last three Parabolic SAR dots positioned below the candles, supporting the bullish bias. The short-term ascending trendline is acting as immediate support, while the longer-term trendline remains intact below the candles, confirming a broader bullish structure. Candles are riding along the upper Bollinger Band, which has started to expand, signaling increasing volatility and strong buying pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: EUR-CAD price is moving along the upper Bollinger Band, with bands widening, indicating rising volatility and a potential continuation of the bullish move. Sustained trading above the midline suggests ongoing buying interest.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the candles, confirming the current bullish trend. As long as price remains above these dots, upward momentum is expected to hold.
Williams %R: The Williams %R is at -9.19, placing the market in overbought territory. This reflects strong bullish pressure but also signals that a short-term pullback or consolidation could occur.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI stands at 65.64, below the overbought level of 70, indicating there is still room for further upward movement before market exhaustion. The RSI supports continued bullish price action but warrants caution for potential overextension.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is seen at 1.60000, aligned with the short-term ascending trendline.
Resistance: Key resistance is at 1.61100, with long-term resistance projected near 1.61490 at the wedge’s upper boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR CAD H4 analysis shows strong bullish momentum supported by technical indicators such as the Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, Williams %R, and RSI. While the overall trend remains upward, overbought conditions suggest the potential for short-term retracement before any continued rally. Traders should closely monitor today’s Eurozone CPI, WPI, Bund Auction results, and the Bank of Canada Minutes for possible volatility spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.13.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 14.08.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis
The GBPUSD currency pair is currently driven by anticipation of key economic data from both the UK and the US. For the Pound, traders are awaiting the RICS Housing Price Balance, a leading indicator of housing market trends, which could influence GBP sentiment if it beats or misses expectations. Later this week, UK GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production will be released, all of which could shape medium-term price direction. On the US side, the focus is on PPI inflation data and weekly jobless claims. Hawkish FOMC commentary could lift the USD, while softer data may encourage further GBP strength. Given the economic calendar, volatility in GBPUSD is expected to rise.

Price Action
The GBPUSD H4 chart shows a strong rebound from the broken support level at 1.31726, with price action trending higher toward the long-term uptrend line. If buyers succeed in breaking above this trendline, the next target is the 1.37820 resistance level. The Parabolic SAR remains firmly bullish, showing widening gaps below the price, which indicates accelerating buying pressure. However, with momentum oscillators in extreme overbought conditions, there is potential for a short-term pause before the next rally attempt.

Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The dots are positioned below the current price and the gap between the dots and the candles has widened. This indicates that the bullish momentum is strengthening, supporting the possibility of further upside if resistance levels are broken.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 78.05, above the overbought threshold of 70. While this highlights strong bullish momentum, it also signals that the market could be overextended, increasing the likelihood of a pullback or consolidation.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The %K and %D readings are at 90.38 and 87.77, respectively, confirming extreme overbought conditions. This aligns with RSI warnings and suggests that while buyers are in control, short-term corrective moves cannot be ruled out.

Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is at 1.31726, which was previously a resistance zone and aligns with a recent price breakout area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.37820, which coincides with a key swing high and projected upside target if the uptrend line breaks.

Conclusion and Consideration
The GBPUSD H4 analysis suggests sustained bullish momentum, backed by strong price action and supportive technical indicators. However, with both RSI and Stochastic in overbought territory, the probability of short-term consolidation or retracement before testing 1.37820 is high. Traders should monitor today’s UK housing data and US inflation numbers closely, as these releases could be the catalysts for either a breakout continuation or a pullback toward support.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
08.14.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.15.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair is currently influenced by a packed economic calendar for both the United States and Japan. For the JPY, traders are watching today’s GDP Deflator, Real GDP, and Industrial Production data from the Cabinet Office and METI. Stronger-than-expected Japanese growth or production figures may bolster the Yen by raising the prospect of tighter Bank of Japan policy. On the USD side, key data releases include Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import Price Index, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Positive results across these indicators would strengthen the USD by supporting a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, while weaker outcomes could dampen dollar demand. Given the heavy data flow, volatility in USDJPY is likely to remain elevated throughout the session.


Price Action
On the H4 timeframe, USD-JPY has been trending upward since mid-June 2025, respecting a strong ascending trendline. The pair recently tested this dynamic support at 146.70 and bounced higher, signaling renewed bullish pressure. This rebound keeps the sequence of higher highs and higher lows intact, pointing toward a possible move toward 151.60 in the medium term. The recent pullback appears corrective in nature, and the recovery suggests bullish continuation remains the dominant scenario.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The most recent Parabolic SAR dots have flipped above the price and are widening, indicating that the prior bearish momentum is losing steam and that a bullish reversal is taking shape as the market reclaims the trendline.
RSI (14): Currently at 54.04, the RSI has broken above the neutral 50 level from below, reflecting improving bullish momentum. This position still leaves room before reaching the overbought threshold (70), which supports the potential for further upside.
MACD (24,52,12): The MACD line at -0.1612 and the signal line at -0.1022 remain in negative territory but are converging. This narrowing gap suggests weakening bearish momentum, and a bullish crossover could confirm the next leg higher toward the 151.60 resistance.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 146.700, which aligns with the ascending trendline and a recent price rebound zone. A deeper correction could find the next support at 145.750, matching a previous consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 149.450, which coincides with the last swing high before the recent retracement. A sustained breakout above this level could open the way toward 151.600, a key long-term resistance zone and previous peak.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USDJPY H4 chart remains structurally bullish, with price respecting the ascending trendline and indicators signaling potential momentum recovery. RSI’s move above 50, the Parabolic SAR shift, and MACD’s potential bullish crossover all align with the possibility of an advance toward 149.45 and, if broken, the 151.60 resistance. However, today’s multiple high-impact data releases from both the US and Japan could trigger sharp intraday swings. Traders should manage positions carefully and consider volatility when setting stop-loss and take-profit levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.15.2025