HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date : 12th June 2023.

Market Update – June 9 – USD & Yields slip, Treasuries & Stocks Rally.


Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher, European and US futures are also finding buyers as markets wait for this week’s round of central bank announcements. US inflation data and of course the FOMC announcement will be key focal points. Markets are positioned for another rate hike from the Fed, although are betting more on July, rather than June. The USDIndex is at 103.6, as the 10-year Treasury yield lifted 1.7 bp to 3.76%. Oil plummeted again after Goldman Sachs cut its outlook for crude price. UBS completes Credit Suisse takeover (integration process could take up to four years, while the report includes a lot of uncertainties about employees).
 

• FX – USDIndex down to 103.47. EUR holds at 1.0750, below 20-DMA for a 2nd day. JPY consolidating between 139.26-139.64. Cable holds at last 1-month high at 1.2580.
• Stocks – JPN225 and ASX closed with gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, the CSI 300 also inched higher, and the Hang Seng, while still in the red, has pared earlier losses. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.5%. Glencore has offered to buy Canadian mining company Teck Resources. Novartis agrees to buy Chinook for up to $3.5B.

 

• Commodities – USOil – GS slashes Brent forecast in waning demand. USOIL tanked under $70.00 again, to $69.24, while UKOIL is currently at $73.66 (weak Chinese data, including deepening factory gate deflation and flagging exports).
• Gold – steady at $1960.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $25.4k level. Regulatory challenges and liquidity issues keep the crypto market resilient.

Today – Australia closed (King’s Birthday Holiday). US Monthly Budget Statement will be released today.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (-5.07%) gapped down on Asia open from 1,833 to 1,717.39. MAs flattened, but MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and RSI 21.12 & flat, H1 ATR 15.50, Daily ATR 71.14.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 13th June 2023.

Market Update – June 13 – Stocks Higher, Pound Up, All Eyes on CPI.

 Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Asian stock markets moved higher as the PBOC cut the 10-day reverse repo rate, which fueled speculation of a cut to its medium term lending facility on Thursday. A weak recovery and low inflation have increased pressure to do more to support the economy and a rate cut from the PBOC would support any official stimulus package that may be in the making. This coupled with market speculation of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle and a continuation of the BOJ’s expansionary policy helped to bolster sentiment overnight. US and European futures rose along with Asian equities.

German HICP confirmed at 6.3% y/y – showed a sharp decline in headline rates. There are some signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, although rates clearly remain far too high for the ECB’s liking. UK unemployment declined, wage growth accelerated and employment growth posted 250K more jobs over the three months to April. A much stronger than expected labour market report that will only harden market expectations for a series of rate hikes from the BOE this year.

 

• FX – The USDIndex has dropped to 103.25. EUR is a breath below 1.08. JPY is steady while Sterling strengthened and Cable lifted further above the 1.2560 mark. 
• Stocks – The JPN225 is up 1.8%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 have lifted 0.3% and 0.1%. US500 breaks 1-year resistance and extends to 4357.44, US100 climbed another 1.53% on the back of a record 12th consecutive gain in #Tesla. AI enthusiasm also supported. #Oracle +6% as cloud sales gained 54% in the fiscal fourth quarter to $4.4 billion, signalling the software maker’s cloud business is benefiting from heightened demand for artificial intelligence (AI) workload. #Carnival +12.45% after JPMorgan and Bank of America upgraded shares of the cruise operator. #Apple Inc. shares ended at their first all-time high in more than a year. #Nio (+8.67%) cuts prices on all electric vehicles by $4,200 in China.
• Commodities – USOil – below 68 but slightly higher from 66.80 low. Gold – trades at $1962 now.

Today – EU ZEW and US Inflation. BOE Gov Bailey Speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.50%) Rallied to 154.40. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line close to 0, RSI 65 but flat, H1 ATR 0.173, Daily ATR 1.112.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 14th June 2023.

Market Update – June 14 – The Big Decision!


Cold feet and cautionary profit taking weighed on Treasuries heading into the FOMC decision Wednesday.

There were no surprises in the May CPI report and that supported market expectations that the Fed will remain on a “hawkish hold,” including likely boosts in the dots to leave the door open for a July hike. Current rate probabilities for 14 June presents an 89.6% chance for a pause today. Wall Street managed further gains, in large part on further momentum from big tech and AI, while in Asia sentiment held up overnight and the Nikkei closed 1.5% higher as Toyota shares rallied following the reappointment of its chairman and as markets expect the BoJ to confirm a continuation of the ultra-accommodative policy settings. European and US stocks are down today.

---

May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010. US L/S net leverage rose to 12-month highs as a result of the buying. Mega-Cap TMT drove the bulk of the buying in North America pushing net exposure to these names to decade highs. Traditional defensive continued to be bought with May being the 4th largest month of buying since 2018.
 

 

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• FX – The USDIndex has remained within yesterday’s range and is at 103.36. EUR is at 1.0785. JPY holds above 140 while Cable broke 1.26 and holds above it as yesterday UK data boosted expectations of further BoE hikes and Sterling rallied as Gilt yields spiked.
• Stocks – The JPN225 is up 1.5%, US500 has had its fourth consecutive increase close to 4,400, while US100 gained 0.8%.
• Commodities – USOil – higher at $70. Gold – slightly higher at $1950.50 now.

Today – All eyes are on the FOMC decision as markets look ahead to the ECB announcement on Thursday, where Lagarde is expected to deliver another 25 bp hike.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%) Pulled back and steadied at 139.88. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line decline but remain well above 0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th June 2023.

Market Update – June 15 – From Dovish Hikes to a Hawkish Pause.


The Fed on Wednesday kept the official interest rate unchanged in the target range of 5%-5.25%. But it was its projections, the so-called dot-plot, that moved markets, sending them lower as the central bank projected a median rate of 5.6% for this year, meaning two more increases. Powell stated that a decision for July has not been made yet, but markets are now anticipating a hike in July and another one in September. No more cuts are expected this year. The median target level projections for the Federal Funds Rate in 2024 is now 4.6% but Powell affirmed that he is predicting ”a couple of years out for rate cuts”. The Central Bank also raised expectations for economic growth (1% vs 0.4% prev.) and core PCE (3.9% vs 3.6% prev.), lowered them for unemployment (4.1% vs 4.5% prev.) and headline PCE (3.2% vs 3.3% prev.).
 

Dot Plot 

The point of this pause is to assess the real effects of the monetary policy conducted so far, which has “long and variable lags” but the ”risks to inflation are still to the upside”. During the conference Powell stressed the importance of the Labour Market, affirmed that it would be nice to see a ”gradual slowdown in wage growth”, acknowledged ”there will be losses in commercial real estate” and specified the Fed is ”carefully monitoring the banking system” (Bank Stress Tests next week!).

OVERNIGHT – New Zealand fell into recession (-0.1% q/q after -0.7% last quarter), Australian Unemployment fell unexpectedly to 3.6%, Machinery Orders in Japan improved (5.5% m/m) and China cut its 1y Medium Term Lending Facility by 10 bps to 2.65%. Retail sales there cooled down, up 12.7% in May.
 

• FX – The USDIndex fell before the decision, below 103 (102.64 low), and recovered after (103.23 right now). EUR spiked above 1.08 (1.0821 now), AUD gained almost 0.9% to 0.6834 before giving up all of its gains after the decision. Now trading back to 0.6827. JPY is trading above 141 on the eve of the BOJ decision.
• Stocks – US30 -0.68%, US500 flat, US100 +0.70%. Dax hit a new ATH @ 16336. China and HK up on the rate cut, Nikkei slightly negative (-0.29% now).
• Commodities – USOil – flat at $68.57 despite IEA yesterday. Gold – down, broke $1940, $1937 now. Silver weighs, –1.68% at $23.52.

Today – ECB expected to hike 25 bps, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed and NY Empire State manufacturing, US Retail sales, BOJ Tonight.
 

AUDJPY, H1 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.18%) Going up in a straight line on weak Yen and surprising Australia unemployment. 96.34 now, RSI 77.7, MACD positive.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 16th June 2023.

Market Update – June 16 – Stocks euphoria spreads as the USD takes a hit.


Asia-Pacific markets are higher today, following another brilliant performance for the US market yesterday as the Bank of Japan again left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and stated that inflation is slowing and it is closely monitoring the FX market. Additionally, in Japan the opposition filed a vote of no confidence for the cabinet a few hours ago. Meanwhile, further stimulus, both monetary and measures to support the housing market, is expected from the PBOC.

Yesterday’s US data was generally mixed but good retail sales stand out (+0.3% vs. +0.1% exp) ahead of today’s Michigan Consumer Confidence data. This helped the US indices have another great session: US500 is now +3% for the week, up 6 days in a row for its longest winning streak since Nov21; US100 is up +4% this week only, 8 weeks in a row (longest since Mar19). The weakness of the USD was another reason for the good US performance yesterday and it has increased after the ECB press conference where Lagarde maintained a very hawkish posture after raising rates by 25 bps. Day today, Quadruple Witching.


 

• FX – The USDIndex has dropped –1.24% to 101.76, now trading at 101.70. EUR has breached above 1.09, now 1.0954, Cable above 1.28, AUD touched 0.6899, JPY weak and approaching 141 again (104.83 now).
• Stocks – China, HK, Australia benchmarks all rose, Nikkei recovered from previous losses, now trading at 33687. US500 +1.22% at 4425, US100 +1.20%, US30 +1.26%. Microsoft hits a new ATH (+3.19% at 348,10), Oracle, Alibaba > +3%, Adobe jumps +3% in afterhours after beating results, Virgin Galactic +40% in afterhours.
• Commodities – USOil – +3.64% at $70.68, Gold – recovered from a low at $1924, now trading at $1960.

Today – Quadruple Witching Day, EU HICP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ZARJPY (+0.74%) on a strong uptrend since 2nd Jun, trading at 7.74 now. RSI sloped upward (66.3), MACD positive and histogram just crossed the line on the H1 timeframe.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 19th June 2023.

Market Update – June 19 – US Holidays, Blinken in China, Waiting for the PBoC.


Asia-Pacific markets largely fell on Monday in a week when the PBoC is broadly expected to cut its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates tomorrow while uncertainty is surrounding China’s economy and the scope of any potential stimulus. In an attempt to improve tense relations between the US and the Asian giant, Blinken is on a high-stakes diplomatic trip to Beijing, making him the highest level American official to visit Beijing since Biden became president, after a number of prominent figures from the corporate world ranging from Elon Musk to Jamie Dimon. Last week ended with a red day for US indices that anyway reached several major milestones: best week since March for the US500 and US100, up 2.6% and 3.3% on the week, 5 and 8 weeks in a row respectively. US30 posted its 3rd consecutive week of gains. Today US cash markets are closed for the Juneteenth Holiday.
 

• FX –The USDIndex is flat at 101.89 (+0.06%) and the greenback is quite volatile against the APAC currencies (AUD -0.17% at 0.6865, low at 0.6834; NZD –0.15% at 0.62238, low at 0.6205); USDCNH is back on the rise at 7.15 (+0.3%). EUR, Cable are flattish.
• Stocks – China –1.42%, HK -1.53%, Nikkei -0.93% (still hovering close to 33-year high). EU Futures in red (DAX -0.35%, FTSE -0.10%) as are the US ones (the 3 major benchmarks are all -0.15%). Last week added another rise to an impressive streak, NVDA added 10%, MSFT 4.7% and hit a record Thursday. On Friday though, several big tech names fell >1% (GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL).
• Commodities – USOil – -0.76% at $70.91. the spread against UKOil is at $4.80 up from $3.62 on 24th May, Gold – rejected $1968 last Friday, now trading at $1955. Metals are in the red.
  

Today – US Juneteenth holidays, CAD Industrial Product Price



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.44%) on a strong uptrend since 1st Jun, trading at 97.12 now. RSI sloped downward and overbought (76.9), MACD positive on the Daily timeframe. ATR (10) ticking slightly higher than 95.6 pips on average per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 20th June 2023.

Market Update – June 20 – PBoC cuts, RBA doubtful, UK rates surge.



Last night the People’s Bank of China cut its 1y and 5y loan prime by 10 bps each to 3.55% and 4.20% respectively, as broadly expected. The move triggered a classic ”sell the fact” reaction and APAC markets – with the exception of Australia – are all negative for the second day in a row; shares of mainland Chinese developers slid over 3% in HK. Meanwhile, in minutes released for the RBA’s June meeting, the central bank revealed that members were deliberating between raising rates or holding them to assess additional data and finally made the decision after seeing that inflation data had “shifted to the upside”. Uncertainty among bank members caused a sharp fall in the AUD, currently the weakest of the majors. Yesterday there was also news that Buffett raised his stake in five Japanese trading firms to average more than 8.5% and this morning almost all of them jumped close to 4% (Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Itochu, Marubeni). But what is worthy of attention are the expectations for the BOE meeting on Thursday with the 2 year Gilt rate well above the highs of last autumn’s mini-budget crisis (5.078% now), when the 10 year Gilt close to the levels that had caused fears for the UK pension industry and prompted the resignation of the Truss government (due to a very disorderly move back then) and traders now expecting a terminal rate between 5.75% and 6% (4.5% now).
 

UK 2 year Gilt, Source Bloomberg 

• FX –The USDIndex is up for the 3rd day in a row at 102.18 (0.34%), EURUSD flat, Cable is consolidating just under 1.28 (1.2780 now) and EURGBP at 0.8544, just below last December’s low. USDJPY at 142! USDCNH is resuming its run towards 7.26 after the fall following the FED break, 7.1784 now
• Stocks – China -0.79%, HK -1.51%, Nikkei -0.49%. US Futures in red (US500 -0.40%, US100 -0.52%, US30 -0.43%). Yesterday in Europe CAC40 (-1.01%) fell back to underperform its peers, probably on weak China and the weight of LVMH (-1.75%)
• Commodities – USOil – –0.85% at $70.82. Gold – slightly shy of $1950, Copper and Palladium weak (-0.8% and 1.35% respectively)

  Today – German PPI, Switzerland Trade Balance, US Building permits and Housing Starts, FED’s Williams, ECB’s De Guindos speeches, BOJ Minutes.

  EURAUD, H1

  

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.74%%) exploded to the upside after RBA’s minutes, above 50 / 200 MA H1, MACD positive , RSI at 74.66.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 21st June 2023.

Market Update – June 21 – US Rally Falters, UK CPI Surprises, Awaiting BOE and SNB.


Chinese stocks led Asian shares down, as investors remain dissatisfied with Beijing’s failure to issue specific support measures. Hong Kong was the heaviest, while the Nikkei recovered from earlier losses and is now trading green helped by a weak JPY that is heading back towards 142. The BOJ minutes showed that several members believe the CPI will return to 2% and BOJ’s Adachi stated that is too early to change the easy monetary policy: risks are to the downside for the economy even if there is plenty of uncertainty. The US stocks rally is faltering after reaching near overbought levels, yet yesterday they managed to recover from the heaviest losses recorded at the start of the session (almost -1%). The start of the US session was risk-off and dragged gold down to $1,930, Crude Oil to $69.50 and commodities more broadly, before partially reversing. Powell continues his tour of testimony that will take him before the House Financial Services Committee today. CPI data in the UK are just out and they are a new surprise to the upside (CORE + 7.1% y/y exp +6.8%, Headline +8.7% y/y exp 8.4%) with Cable testing 1.28 while yesterday traders were easing their bets of a terminal rate at 6% (down to a 50% chance from 90% before) and the 10 year GILT rallied while the GBP underperformed. Now, there’s a 50% chance of a 50 bps hike tomorrow and a 100% odds of the final rate being at 6% by the end of the year. Tomorrow, BOE and SNB are both expected to raise rates.
 

Currency Indices Relative strength, last 10 hours

 

• FX –The USDIndex is flat at 102.19, EUR above 1.09, Cable is testing 1.28. USDCNH has breached 7.20 as the (still) export based economy is slowing down.
• Stocks – China -0.21%, HK -1.58%, Nikkei +0.68%. US Futures absolutely flat. FedEx fell about 3% in extended trading after the shipping giant posted weaker-than-expected revenue for its most recent quarter – not good for the real economy when a carrier has bad results.
• Commodities – USOil – +0.79%, still stuck at $71.44. Gold – close to recent lows, trading at $1932.68 now, Silver heavy yesterday (-3.58%) and in the red today.

Today – CAD retail sales, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Jefferson, Cook, Goolsbee, Mester & ECB’s Schnabel.
 

NZDJPY, H1

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.48 %) the Kiwi is taking advantage of the structural weakness of the Yen, 87.63 right now on H1: RSI at 65, MACD positive but Histogram crossing the line to the downside, price is between the 50 and 200 MAs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited June 21, 2023 by HFM

[HFM]

Date : 22nd June 2023.

Market Update – June 22 – ”Super Thursday”.


The Asian stock market was negative with JPN225 down -0.9%, although with the BoJ sticking to its accommodative policy stance and corporate reforms helping to lift sentiment, Japanese markets have outperformed over the past year. China and Hong Kong are on holiday today (Dragon Boat Festival). Markets continue to adjust Fed tightening expectations after Powell repeated yesterday that the fight against inflation is not over yet. US futures are in the red, as markets wait for rate announcements from the BoE. The SNB meanwhile today increased rates by 25 bps.

Higher than expected inflation numbers have left markets pricing in some risk of a 50 bp move from the BoE today. Stagflation risks are back on the agenda and Sterling didn’t benefit from the prospect of aggressive tightening moves.


 

• FX – The USDIndex corrected yesterday, but today has stabilised, and is at 101.60. EUR meanwhile held above 1.0980 after ECB’s Villeroy tried to tame speculation of a September hike. The EUR also strengthened against the Pound, despite the outperformance of Bunds versus Gilts. USDJPY remains high at 141.80 after BoJ’s Ueda said the BoJ will persistently continue with monetary easing.
• Stocks – GER40 and UK100 are underperforming and down -0.6% and -0.7% respectively. #Amazon down after Federal Trade Commission sues Amazon for enrolling consumers in Prime without consent and #Tesla stock sank 5.5% on Wednesday, its steepest loss in two months, The US100 sank 1.2%, US500 was down about 0.5%, while the US30 fell 0.2%.
• Commodities – USOil and Gold slightly lower but steady at $72.30 and $1929.20.

Today – SNB press conference, BOE rate decision and Press conference, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Bowman & ECB’s De Guindos and Panetta.
 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (-1.02%) dipped on the EU open at 7463.67. Fast MAs aligned lower, RSI at 21 and falling and MACD & signal line are negatively configured ATR (H1) is at 13.26 and ATR (D) is at 65.09.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rdJune 2023.

Market Update – June 23 – Risk Aversion Extends.


After 50 bp rate hikes from the BoE and Norges Bank, ongoing hawkish comments from Chair Powell who further warned of additional rate hikes, one maybe two more this year, exacerbated the selling.

Asian stock markets have remained under pressure and European as well as US futures are firmly in negative territory at the end of what is shaping up to be the worst week for stocks since March. The advent of supply with $120 bln in Treasury auctions announced, along with a 5-pronged offering from Nasdaq, extended the losses. Fighting inflation is taking precedence over growth concerns and for bank stocks in particular that could spell further pain, as markets worry about the risk of deteriorating loan portfolios. The 10-year Treasury yield has corrected -0.9 bp today, the German 10-year is down -2.2 bp and curves are inverting further. UK retail sales rose 0.3% m/m in May with the numbers suggest that demand is holding up despite ongoing inflation overshoots that are eating into real disposable income.


 

• FX – The USDIndex is on the rise and currently at 102.68. EUR broke below 1.0900 printing a low at 1.0852, while Pound retests again the 1.2690 lows. USDJPY reverted to 142.84 from 143.48 highs as risk aversion deepens.
• Stocks – China bourses were still on holiday, but the Hang Seng declined -1.8%, the Nikkei lost -1.5%, after a mixed close on Wall Street yesterday. The US100 sank 0.45%, US500 was down about 0.5%, while the US30 fell 0.37%.
• Commodities – Gold touched lows of $1910.05. The USOil meanwhile has dropped to $68.51 per barrel.

Today – PMI from Germany, Eurozone, UK and US will be monitored for growth signals.
 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL(-1%) resume decline today after -4% yesterday. Currently at $68.51, with fast MAs flattened for now, RSI at 28 and flat, Stochastic higher while MACD & signal line remain negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 26th June 2023.

Market Update – June 26 – Risk off!


Stock markets are consolidating after last week’s decline. Asia bourses still posted small losses, but European futures and US futures are slightly higher. Mainland China bourses sold off in catch up trade on their first trading day since last .The 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 3.721% and markets continue to fine tune central bank expectations. The ECB’s annual conference on central banking, which starts today may help as top central bankers are set to speak. Events in Russia are also on the radar at the start of the week. Oil prices rose on supply concerns and stock markets were mixed after Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin withdrew from positions in Russia.
 

• FX – The USDIndex has corrected to 102.32, EUR steady at 1.09, Pound sideways at 1.2720 and USDJPY corrcted below 143.87 at 143.48.
• Stocks –Defence stocks down. The US100 tumbled -1.01%, while the US500 was down -0.77%, with the US30 off -0.65%. It looks as though a lot of the AI rally has lost its umph. For the US100 and US500 it was the worst week since the SVB collapse with the US100 falling -2.1%, and the US500 dropping -1.75%, with the US30 off -1.98%.
• Commodities – USOil rose slightly on supply concerns and currently settled at 69.65, with a relatively muted reaction over weekend’s events in Russia. Gold slightly lower but steady at $1922.13.
• BTCUSD – Supported above $29,940 after breached $31,000. – SEC Approves First Ever Leveraged Bitcoin Futures ETF.

Today – ECB annual conference, Germany’s Ifo issues while Germany’s Federal Court of Justice decides compensation claims against Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes-Benz in Karlsruhe over the diesel scandal.
 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) COFFEE (-3.07%) dipped on the 163.60, by global economic gloom sparked by Friday’s weak US and Eurozone purchasing managers reports. Fast MAs aligned lower, RSI at 26, MACD & signal line are negatively configured ATR (H1) is at 1.36 and ATR (D) is at 5.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 27th June 2023.

Market Update – June 27 – Stocks buoyed after yesterday’s drift.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite started to improve and a 2% bounce in the Hang Seng led Asian markets higher overnight. China Premier warned that economic barriers will lead to confrontation, while he promised the roll out of more effective measures to boost demand. China meanwhile set its daily reference rate for the managed currency at a higher level which for a second day helped the offshore yuan to advance. European and US futures are also finding buyers, after the US100 suffered again yesterday with markets preparing for a Fed hike in July. The 2-year finished fractionally lower at 4.680% after a well bid auction. It was as rich as 4.635% earlier. The 10-year was off 1.5 bps at 3.719%. The curve was at -102 bps.

Along with concerns over events in Russia, a plunge in German Ifo business confidence added to angst over the bearish impacts of central bank tightening, while more signs of a flagging Chinese economy added to risk-off flows.


 

• FX – The USDIndex to 102.14, EUR at 1.0935, Pound retests at 1.274. USDJPY at 143.45, which will keep intervention talk alive, especially after Japan extended the term of its top currency official for another year, which will be taken as a sign that officials remain determined to stem the weakness of the currency.
• Stocks – Nikkei underperformed but China bourses were buoyed. Wall Street settled in the red with the US100 and US500 at the day’s lows. The US100 tumbled -1.16% and the US500 was off -0.45%. The US30 was down -0.04%.
• Commodities – USOil higher due to Russian turmoil and currently at $70 per barrel.
• Gold slightly higher as markets lower but steady at $1922.13. Iron and Copper jump as China stimulus optimism.

Today – The ECB’s conference on central banking in Sintra really gets underway today and comments from Lagarde will be watched carefully.
 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.68%) dipped to 1.6256. Fast MAs aligned rebounded in the last hour indicating the potential end of the decline.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 28th June 2023.

Market Update – June 28 – “Summer Sequel”.


European stock markets are higher in early trade, after a largely stronger session in Asia. Overnight, Treasury yields climbed and Wall Street bounced, supported by strong data, i.e.
 

• US new home sales soared 12.2% to heady 763k pace in May
• US consumer confidence spiked to 109.7 in June; 1-year inflation 6.0%
• US durable goods orders jumped 1.7% in May, 0.6% ex-transportation

Japan extended the term of its top currency official for another year, which was taken as a sign that officials remain determined to stem the weakness of the currency, although for now markets are testing that resolve. Canada CPI slowed to 3.4% y/y in May, Median core rate at 3.9% y/y. Australia CPI cooled at 5.6% in May, a faster rate than expected, raising the prospect of a pause in interest rate rises from the Reserve Bank of Australia. ECB officials continue to flag that they have more ground to cover on rates, despite the deterioration in confidence indicators.
 

Today, German GfK consumer confidence deteriorated. The domestic political discussions may be partly to blame for the gloomy picture, but high inflation and the ongoing Ukraine war are likely also weighing on confidence and depressing the outlook. Latest revisions showed Germany in recession over the winter and GDP is expected to contract in 2023, especially as rising rates will also start to have an effect on activity.
 

• FX – The USDIndex recovered yesterday’s losses and returned to 102.29, but remains firmer versus JPY and Turkish lira. USDJPY has cleared the 144 mark, today slightly below it though. EUR at 1.0939, Pound down to 1.2719. AUD and NZD under pressure after soft inflation data dampened rate hike expectations.
• Stocks – Nikkei rallied 2%, the ASX was 1.1% higher at the close, while China bourses underperformed as markets still miss convincing stimulus measures. GER40 and UK100 are up 0.4% and 0.3% in early trade, but US futures are slightly lower today. #Walgreens tumbled more than 9% to an almost 13-year-low after cutting its full-year profit outlook and warning that consumers were paring spending as inflation remains elevated. #Regeneron slipped 8.7% after the Food and Drug Administration rejected the biotechnology firm’s application for approval of a high-dose version of its eye disease treatment Eylea. #United Airlines and #American Airlines rallied more than 5% after rival Delta gave a rosy outlook for the year on sustained travel demand. #Delta shares rose 6.8%. #NVDA -3.1%, #AMD -2.4% after hours as US ban on exporting AI chips to China imminent.
• Commodities – USOil dropped back again as Russia jitters eased, to $67.70.
• Gold down to $1909.

Today – The ECB’s conference on central banking in Sintra the highlight of the day.
 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.03%) dipped to 0.6095 (S3). Fast MAs aligned lower, MACD lines are negatively configured with RSI at 24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 30th June 2023.

Market Update – June 30 – Eyes on PCE.


US ECONOMY

The surprisingly strong GDP revisions and the drop in jobless claims raised fears the FOMC will have to tighten rates further and boosted Treasury yields higher. The bear flattening trade boosted rates to the highest levels since March, the last time the markets fretted over aggressive Fed action. Fed funds futures priced in another hike in the coming months. Asian markets traded mixed, European and US futures are mostly higher as markets wait for the US PCE numbers after yesterday’s strong round of data that lifted Treasury yields.
 

• FX – The USDIndex popped to 103.437 on the more hawkish Fed outlook, but faded to 103.32. USDJPY breached 145. GBP and EUR remained under pressure.
• Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.80% and 0.45%, respectively, supported by financials after the banks passed their stress tests. The US100 was unchanged.
• Commodities – USOil keeps retesting $70. US and European central banks remain hawkish and signal a higher-for-longer stance. China hasn’t delivered the hoped for aggressive stimulus program, but for Russia jitters have eased and a drop in US crude inventories helped to underpin prices today. EIA data showed that US crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels last week – the largest drawdown in more than a month.
• Gold – broke below $1900 level yesterday but quickly returned higher to $1906.

Today – German Unemployment change, EU preliminary inflation & core reading, US PCE index and Michigan index.
 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+19%) rallied to 322.93 high. Fast MAs flattened, MACD lines are still positively configured with RSI at 80.85 and Stochastic at 57 and falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 3rd July 2023.

Market Update – July 3 – A shortened week to start H2.


Core PCE data slightly below expectations plus a GDP reading that surprised at +2% (remember, however, that the comparison is against 2022 Q1 which was -1.6%) in the US were enough to give a final boost to US Indices – and of course their global peers – to close H1. The Nasdaq had its best H1 since 1983, up 38.71% ytd, +15.16% in Q2. $5 trillion has been added to the value of the listed companies, and Apple alone hit $3 trillion in valuation. The SP500 rose 6.47% in June, 8.30% in Q2, 15.91% ytd. The Dow Jones jumped 4.56% in June and is up only 3.80% on the year. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the potential of generative AI have contributed to the market’s gain so far in 2023. Going back to last Friday, the Treasuries did not behave so brilliantly and were mostly sold off with the 2-year currently at 4.90% and with the curve against the 10-year at -107 bps. The USD also suffered against the major currencies, losing about 0.5%. The week started very well in Asia thanks to good PMI data from Caixin in China and Tankan in Japan.

This will be a shortened week for American trading: today Canada will observe Canada Day and the US will close early ahead of Independence Day tomorrow.




 

• FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.66 after having retreated 65 cents from the highs on Friday. EUR briefly regained 1.09 and GBP 1.27, now they are both slightly shy of these levels. AUD is weak in line with other majors (-0.20%) on the eve of the RBA IR decision tonight. Asian currencies are still weak, with CNH close to 8-month lows (7.263) and JPY still on the 144 handle.
• Stocks – US Futures are mainly flat (-0.01% US30/+0.16% US100); Asia is rallying this morning: China +1.93%, HK +1.91%, Nikkei +1.50%. Goldman Sachs is in talks to offload its APPLE credit card and high-yield savings account products to AMERICAN EXPRESS. Tesla reported 466.140 deliveries for Q2, +83% y/y
• Commodities – USOil still trading close to $70, Gold is stabilizing above $1.900, Silver consolidating in the $22.30-$23.00 range, Palladium still weak, AGRICULTURALS very volatile, with a very strong Cocoa +2.58% and quite weak Coffee and Sugar (that is rebounding +4.72% this morning after a -14% performance in the previous 2 weeks).

Today – Swiss CPI, EU/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Holidays: Canada Observes Canada Day, US Early Closure ahead of Independence Day.
 

SUGAR, Daily

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+4.72%%) is rebounding to $22.90 after dropping as low as $21.78. RSI is rising from near oversold levels, MACD is still negative. ATR 10 shows an average movement of 83 cents per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 4th July 2023.

Market Update – July 4 – RBA on hold, US Independence Day.



After a shorter-than-usual US session yesterday due to today’s Independence Day holiday (US cash markets will be closed), which saw only the strong performance of TSLA (+6.9%) stand out after excellent manufacturing and delivery data, the Australian RBA kept rates on hold at 4.1% overnight in a Fed-style move (”more time will help us assess the real consequences of our actions”). The move was expected by 15/31 economists polled by Reuters, with 16 expecting a 25 bps hike. Australia’s top monetary authority believes inflation has ”passed its peak” but ”some further tightening may be required”. Inflation for the month of May showed a cooling to 5.6% according to the Bureau of Statistics. Among yesterday’s news, the further 500k bpd cut announced by Russia as well as the extension of the Saudis’ 1m bpd cut for another month allowed Crude Oil to soar before fading its gains almost entirely. Also, Nasdaq refiled its Blackrock Spot BTC ETF listing application with the US SEC and BTC took advantage of this to rise above 31k. 2y10y US curve inverted up to -110.6 bps.
 

OPEC+ cuts, updated JUN 2023

 

• FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.73 after having been up just 5 cents yesterday. EUR again just shy of 1.09, GBP almost flat at 1.2687. AUD has been mildly offered after last night’s RBA decision (-0.24%).
• Stocks – US Futures are slightly in red this morning (-0.03% US500/-0.09% USA100); APAC is indecisive: Nikkei is retreating from 33-year highs (-1%), China -0.20%, AU200 caught some bid after the CB decision reversing previous losses (+0.38%). TSLA +6.9%.
• Commodities – USOil rose up to $71.77, is now back at $70.08; Gold keeps climbing after having hit the intermediate support area just shy of 1.9k, now trading at 1924.80.
• Cryptos: BTC back above 31k.

Today – Germany Trade Balance, US Redbook index, CAD Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. US Independence Day.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NEOUSD (+2.35%) to $9.68, RSI at 59.60, MACD positive and trying to raise its head again after a possible recent double top.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 5th July 2023.

Market Update – July 5 – US back to business, EU/UK PMIs, FOMC Minutes ahead.



After 2 days of subdued trading due to holidays in the US, we are back in full swing. Little happened yesterday except for news of new restrictions – this time from China – on the export of two metals critical to chip production, Gallium and Germanium. There was also a virtual meeting between the three biggest powers bidding to reshape the global order dominated by the United States, with Putin, XI and Modi meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, demonstrating a fairly close collaboration.
 

Currency indices, relative strength 05/07

• FX – The USDIndex is trading at 102.79, EUR flat at 1.0881, GBP regained 1.27, JPY below possible intervention levels at 144.65.
• Stocks – US/EU Futures are slightly in red this morning: US500 – 0.12%, USA100 -0.15%, Dax -0.41%, Cac -0.37%. APAC in red: China – 1.14%, HK -1.50%, AU200 -0.4%.
• Commodities – USOil regained $71 ($70.96 right now, is now back at $70.08); Gold flat at $1924.80.

Today – IT, FR, DE, EU, UK Services/Composite PMIs, EU PPI, US Factory Orders, FOMC minutes.
 

Sugar, Daily

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+2.10%) continues its recovery after last week’s drop, trading at $23.37, RSI rising at 41.01, MACD still negative, price between the 50 and 200 Mas.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 6th July 2023.

Market Update – July 6 –FOMC archived, Jobs data ahead the next milestone.



Last night, the FOMC minutes showed the FED sees more rate hikes ahead but at a slower pace. Policymakers decided against a rate rise, citing the lagged impact of policy and other concerns as reasons to skip the June meeting after 10 straight rate increases which have totaled 5 percentage points, the most aggressive moves since the early 1980s. However, 12 out of 18 participants expected 2 or more hikes in 2023. Markets showed little reaction with all the moves being gradual and constant during the day but it’s worth noting that Yields are higher (2y US close to 5%, 10y shy of 4%). Also very interesting yesterday was the deterioration of the Services but especially Composite PMI data in China and Europe, showing that the effects of monetary transmission are slowly beginning to be felt in the real economy. On the same note, US factory orders came out lower than expected (+0.3% vs. +0.8% exp); at least this morning the German ones unexpectedly bounced back and this is a much needed short-term relief. Today’s labour data will be preamble to the NFP tomorrow. Treasury’s Yellen is kicking off her trip to China after EU’s Borrell rejection.
 

PMIs heatmap, Bloomberg

• FX – The USDIndex briefly regained 103 earlier this morning (102.93 now), GBP managed to stem losses yesterday (1.2713 now) while EUR (+0.24% yesterday, now trading at 1.0867) and AUD (settled at -0.57%, now 0.6674) were weaker. JPY is bid this morning and lost 144 (143.78).
• Stocks – US Futures are negative again (US500 -0.29%, USA100 -0.38%). Asia is heavy and Goldman’s downgrade of Chinese financial institutions is weighing: China -0.67%, HK -2.92%, Nikkei -1.70% on a stronger JPY. Foxconn sales dipped by 14% in Q2.
• Commodities – USOil has been supported by a consistent news flow from Saudi and OPEC yesterday, hit $72, now trading at $71.74. Gold was rejected by the ST trendline after touching $1935, trading at $1920 now.

Today – DE Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US ADP, Jobless Claims, Jobs Openings, Trade Balance, ISM Services.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+13.21%) keeps benefiting from its listing on EDX markets, now, RSI at 76.65, MACD positive, ATR 10 shows an average movement of 37.37 USD/day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 7th July 2023.

Market Update – July 7 – US is hiring now.


And that’s great news, especially since the average 30y fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.22% according to Mortgage News Daily and the monthly payment for a 200k mortgage has risen by $50 in one week. The ADP Employment Change data yesterday doubled expectations by rising +497k against the expected +228k figure: as you can see in the attached table, the increase occurred mainly in the service providing industry sector. As a matter of fact, just before, Challenger Job Cuts were half of the expected ones, while the most headline figure – Jobless Claims – came out broadly in line with expectations.
 

ADP Numbers

The reaction was immediate for USD and Interest Rates, while the drop for indices and stocks intensified shortly afterwards. Rates rose strongly, the 2y US rate touched 5.11% as it hasn’t done since 2007 and the 10y US also traded above 4%. Towards the end of the day yields fell a bit, but not so the 30y rate that stayed heavier. The USD index climbed almost 0.6% after the announcement, to 103.27, with the EURUSD down about 60 pips to 1.0833, and the USDJPY regained 144, lost earlier in the day (and at the closing settlement). The SP500 was losing > 1% before closing down -0.8% (as did the Nasdaq). DJ at -1%.

Such strong data have raised expectations of a new Fed hike in July to 91% – although in the long run the market still does not believe the bank will be as aggressive as it says, as can be seen by the still ongoing deviation between swaps and dot-plots. In the same vein, yesterday the UK terminal rate was also totally priced in at 6.5% in Mar 2024.

Today’s headline will naturally be the NFP, expected at +225k down from +339k last month: it would be the second lowest reading in 12 months and yesterday’s stellar figure keeps the bar very high. Attention will also be paid to Hourly Earnings as a slow down would take further pressure off inflationary pressures and to Unemployment, expected lower at 3.6%
 

• FX – The USDIndex is down -0.14% to 102.70 this morning, EURUSD is trading at 1.0892 while CABLE is just shy of 1.2750. USDJPY is weak, -0.40% at 143.448.
• Stocks – US Futures are mildly negative (US500 -0.08% at 4405, USA100 -0.07% at 15.066). In APAC: China -0.32%, HK -0.72%, Nikkei down to 34440. Tesla said to have started cutting jobs in Shanghai factory’s battery assembly division.
• Commodities – USOil still above $72, now trading at $72.10, Gold tested the 1900 area yesterday and is now trading up at $1914.

TODAY: US NFP, Unemployment, Average earnings, CAD unemployment, ECB’s Lagarde and De Guindos speeches.





Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (+0.66%) rebounds off $155 after a 2-week long drop. Both MACD and RSI are negative, the latter one not being particularly oversold. 50 and 200 MAs are in the $180 area now, $35 higher than the current price.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date 10th July 2023.

Market Update – July 10 – US CPI dominates this week.


With the jobs report out of the way, attention turns to CPI and Fedspeak. Today, Asian markets traded mixed, with China’s economy remaining in focus. Factory prices fell more than anticipated and CPI was also weaker than expected, adding to signs that China is seeing excess supply. China’s factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in 7 1/2 years in June, while CPI was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand as China slides to the brink of deflation. Meanwhile, at a conference in France, BOE Bailey rejected calls for setting inflation target higher than 2%.

Review of NFP: The 209k rise in nonfarm payrolls severely underperformed the whisper number (around 290) that was bloated by the massive 497k surge in private payrolls from the ADP report. That whipsawed the Treasury market that had plunged on Thursday on fears of a more aggressive stance from the FOMC. However, the overall report was decent and even stronger than expected with respect to earnings and hours worked. Fed funds futures remained priced for a July hike but trimmed expectations for a September or November move.


 

• FX – The USDIndex slumped to 101.88. USDJPY pullback to below 143 today. GBP and EUR gained ground retesting 1.2840 and 1.0690 highs, currently turning lower.
• Stocks – Hope that the official crackdown on tech companies is coming to an end, initially helped the Hang Seng and CSI300 to find buyers, but the weaker than expected data round saw indexes paring losses. Nikkei and ASX meanwhile closed with losses of -0.6% and -0.5% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are down -0.3% and US futures are also in the red. Alibaba (+8%) and Tencent shares today after China’s $984 million fine against the Jack Ma-founded Ant Group appeared to signal the end of the regulatory crackdown on the country’s technology sector.
• Commodities – USOil slightly lower after capping its best week since April, at $73.13.
• Gold – lower at $1923 from $1935 as traders attention turns to the US inflation. Gold had a back to back monthly loss in June.

Today – FOMC Members Mester, Bostic and Daly, German Buba President Nagel and BOE Governor Bailey speak.
 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) LTCUSD (-1.82%) dipped to 90.195. Fast MAs flattened, MACD lines are still negatively configured with RSI at 33 and flat and Stochastic at 29 and falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.