Daily Forex News by XtreamForex.com

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Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

During early trading in Europe on Tuesday, the gold price (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure, diminishing some of the modest recovery gains it had made from the previous day. These gains had lifted the price from a low of $2,287—the lowest in over a month—sparked by optimistic US employment data. This development has led investors to reconsider their expectations for an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, resulting in sustained high US Treasury bond yields and a robust US Dollar (USD). The dollar reached a multi-week high on Monday, which continues to dampen the demand for gold.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) made a significant shift by sharply curtailing its gold purchasing activities in May. This decision marked the end of an extensive one-and-a-half-year period of consistent buying, diverting investment flows away from gold. Despite these pressures, gold prices are finding some support against deeper losses due to ongoing political uncertainty in Europe and persistent geopolitical risks. These factors are causing traders to adopt a cautious stance, preferring to wait for further economic indicators.

Key upcoming events that traders are watching include the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, both due on Wednesday. These events are highly anticipated as they could provide clearer signals about the Fed’s plans regarding rate cuts. The outcome of these developments will be crucial in shaping the short-term direction of gold prices.

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EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The EUR/USD experienced its third consecutive day of losses on Tuesday as market sentiment soured following the European Union parliamentary elections. The elections resulted in a significant shift towards center-right and far-right parties, with European voters showing strong support for these groups. Meanwhile, left-leaning political parties suffered steep losses, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among EU citizens regarding economic fragility and the current policy strategies of the established European ruling parties.

This political upheaval in Europe has added to the market’s uncertainty. Investors are now anxiously awaiting key economic updates from the United States. On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision are due to be released. These announcements are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment, which is currently quite volatile.

The US CPI inflation data is anticipated to show a cooling in April, with expectations of a 0.1% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. Annualized Core CPI inflation is also expected to tick down slightly to 3.5% year-over-year, from the previous 3.6%. These figures are critical as they will provide insight into the inflationary pressures facing the US economy and inform the Fed’s future policy decisions.

In addition to the CPI data, the Fed’s latest rate call and Monetary Policy Statement are set to draw significant attention. Although the Fed is broadly expected to hold interest rates steady this week, investors are particularly interested in updates to the Fed’s “dot plot” – a summary of interest rate expectations going forward. There is growing concern that the dot plot may shift, reflecting fewer or no rate cuts in 2024, which could have substantial implications for market dynamics.

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EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

The EUR/USD pair starts the week on a subdued note, consolidating its recent losses to the lowest level since early May, around the 1.0670-1.0665 region touched on Friday. Currently trading around the 1.0700 mark, the pair appears vulnerable to further declines.

Concerns over a potential snap election in France, which could worsen the fiscal situation in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, continue to weigh on the shared currency. The right-wing National Front party leads in the polls, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Friday of a financial crisis risk if either the far right or left won due to their heavy spending plans. This, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), supports a near-term negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise at the end of the June policy meeting, indicating a median projection of just one rate cut in 2024, supports elevated US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bolster the safe-haven Greenback, suggesting a downward trend for the EUR/USD pair. However, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep the door open for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed in September.

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GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to gain any significant traction on Wednesday, trading within a narrow range around the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Despite this, spot prices are holding above the one-month low reached last Friday, as traders eagerly anticipate the release of the latest UK consumer inflation figures before committing to any substantial moves.

The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a slight increase, with monthly inflation ticking up to 0.4% in May from 0.3% in April. However, the annual inflation rate is projected to decelerate to 3.5% from the previous 3.9%. This data will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the British Pound (GBP) and could provide the necessary impetus for the GBP/USD pair to break out of its current trading range.

In addition to the inflation data, market participants are also focusing on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. The decisions and guidance provided by the BoE will play a significant role in determining the near-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Any indications of future rate hikes or a shift in the bank’s policy stance could lead to increased volatility and directional movement in the currency pair.

On the other side of the Atlantic, subdued price action in the US Dollar (USD) is also influencing the GBP/USD pair. Tuesday’s US Retail Sales report came in softer than expected, signaling potential fatigue among American consumers. This has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as early as September. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields have declined, undermining the USD and providing a supportive backdrop for the GBP/USD pair.

Despite these supportive factors, the GBP/USD pair has yet to attract significant follow-through buying. This cautious market sentiment is likely due to the looming uncertainty surrounding the key economic data and central bank meetings. Traders appear hesitant to position themselves aggressively before gaining more clarity from the upcoming UK CPI release and BoE meeting.

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NZD/USD Drops to Near 0.6100 Amid Risk Aversion and Consumer Confidence Concerns

The NZD/USD pair extends its losses for the second consecutive session, trading around 0.6110 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is struggling, possibly due to rising risk aversion ahead of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence data for June and the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter (Q1) on Thursday. Additionally, market participants are closely watching the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is scheduled for release on Friday.

The ongoing uncertainty in the global financial markets has led to heightened caution among investors, impacting the NZD/USD pair. Concerns over the upcoming consumer confidence data have intensified, as this indicator will provide insights into the economic sentiment in New Zealand. A lower-than-expected reading could further dampen the outlook for the NZD.

Moreover, the impending release of the US GDP figures adds another layer of complexity. A robust GDP report could strengthen the US Dollar (USD), making the NZD/USD pair less attractive. Conversely, a weaker GDP figure could offer some relief to the NZD. However, the market remains cautious, waiting for clear signals from these key economic indicators.

Adding to the downward pressure on the NZD, New Zealand’s Treasury issued a statement on Wednesday highlighting the risks posed by a weak economy to its forecasts. The Treasury is considering additional spending and revenue solutions to address these challenges. This admission of economic vulnerability has contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding the NZD.

Economist McLeish echoed these concerns, pointing to recent data that suggests economic weakness in New Zealand. The combination of internal economic challenges and external uncertainties has created a challenging environment for the NZD.

The upcoming US PCE Price Index release on Friday is another critical factor influencing the NZD/USD pair. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index will be closely scrutinized. A higher-than-expected reading could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially boosting the USD further and putting additional pressure on the NZD.

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Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian shares fell alongside European and US stock-index futures after Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook missed the highest forecasts, impacting major tech companies in late Wall Street trading. Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China all declined, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge toward its first loss in three days.

The yen recovered some losses after dropping to 160.87 per dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since 1986. An emerging-market currency gauge neared a two-month low, and an Asian currency index fell to levels last seen in 2022 as the dollar strengthened. Treasuries continued to decline amid concerns that Friday’s US PCE data would show persistent inflation.

“It’s all about the Fed—higher rates for longer are keeping short-term rates high, drawing money into the US and strengthening the dollar,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC. For Japan, “it’s a problem,” he added.

MSCI Inc.‘s key gauge for Chinese stocks is headed for a technical correction as traders struggle to find catalysts ahead of a July meeting of the nation’s top leaders. The MSCI China Index fell up to 2% on Thursday, marking a nearly 10% decline since its May 20 high.

The yen strengthened from a 38-year low after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki remarked that “one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market were not desirable as currencies should reflect fundamentals.” The currency had dropped 0.7% on Wednesday.

Micron Technology shares dropped in extended US trading after the computer memory chip maker disappointed investors hoping for gains from the AI computing boom. This news also pulled down other chipmakers, including Nvidia Corp.

Wall Street’s latest attempt to broaden beyond megacap stocks was short-lived, with various measures showing weak market breadth, increasing uncertainty about the rally’s sustainability. The disparity between S&P 500 performance and breadth is among the worst in three decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“The stock market is overly reliant on big tech,” said David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group. “Whether the recent tech volatility is the start of something deeper or a future reckoning remains to be seen, but excessive investor sentiment and overdone momentum always end the same way.”

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EUR/USD Continues to Decline Near 1.0900 Amid US Dollar Strength

The EUR/USD pair is trading lower around 1.0915 after pulling back from seven-month highs near 1.1008 during the Asian session on Wednesday. A stronger US Dollar (USD) is putting downward pressure on the pair. Investors are now looking ahead to Germany’s June Trade Balance and Industrial Production reports, expected later today.

Improved risk sentiment and rising US Treasury bond yields are offering some support to the Greenback. However, market participants are anticipating more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September. This expectation could limit the USD’s gains and potentially provide a boost to EUR/USD. Currently, the market has priced in a 69.5% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September, up significantly from 13.2% last week, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.

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EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.0900 After Breaking Losing Streak

The EUR/USD pair managed to halt its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.0920 during the Asian session on Friday. The pair’s upward movement can be attributed to a weaker US Dollar (USD), driven by rising expectations of a dovish policy outlook from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, the pair faced some challenges as US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending August 2, coming in below the market forecast of 240,000. This drop followed an upward revision to 250,000 for the previous week, marking the highest level in a year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has retreated from recent highs, trading around 103.20. Additionally, a decline in US Treasury yields, currently at 4.01% and 3.97%, has added pressure on the Greenback.

On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid suggested that easing monetary policy could be “appropriate” if inflation remains subdued. Schmid noted that the current Fed policy stance is “not that restrictive” and acknowledged that while the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target, it has not yet fully achieved it, according to Reuters.

On the European side, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on Wednesday that the ECB could continue cutting interest rates if the inflation trend shows signs of slowing in the near future. Rehn stated, “Inflation continues to slow down, but the path to the 2% target remains bumpy this year,” as reported by Reuters.

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What’s Moving Markets: US CPI, Retail Earnings, and UK Inflation

Wall Street is poised to start the week slightly higher as investors closely watch the latest inflation data, seeking confirmation that the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates in September. While the quarterly earnings season is winding down, the retail sector will take center stage in the coming days.

July CPI in Focus
The trajectory of U.S. interest rates remains a key concern for investors, making Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price data the most anticipated economic release of the week.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, known for her typically hawkish stance, acknowledged some progress on inflation recently, though she stressed that it still remains “uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed held its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% in late July but hinted at a possible rate cut in September if inflation continues to ease.

The July CPI is expected to show further movement toward the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target, with core inflation predicted to drop slightly to 3.2%, its lowest level since April 2021. Fed fund futures suggest a 49% chance of a half-point rate cut in September, down from a near certainty last week.

Futures Edge Higher on Inflation Watch
U.S. stock futures rose modestly on Monday, as investors cautiously approach a week filled with key inflation data and significant retail earnings.

As of 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT), Dow futures were up 40 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures gained 11 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 60 points (0.3%).

Last week, the main Wall Street indices ended with minor losses, recovering slightly after an early-week slump. Jobless claims data helped ease concerns about the labor market and the overall health of the U.S. economy. Now, the focus shifts to the consumer price index and insights from several Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

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USD/CAD Struggles to Gain Momentum Near 1.3750 Amid Rising Crude Oil Prices; Focus Shifts to US PPI Data

The USD/CAD pair is trading slightly stronger near 1.3740 during the Asian session on Tuesday, with traders largely adopting a cautious stance ahead of key US economic data releases. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is the main event for the day, along with a speech by Federal Reserve official Raphael W. Bostic.

The US Dollar is currently in a consolidation phase, reflecting the subdued sentiment in global markets. Market participants are closely watching the PPI data, which is expected to show a year-on-year decrease to 2.3% in July from 2.6%, with Core PPI also anticipated to drop to 2.7% from 3.0%. These figures could provide critical insight into future US interest rate decisions.

Analysts at BBH Global Currency Strategy suggest there is a possibility of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve, contingent on upcoming data, with current market pricing indicating a 55% likelihood. If key US economic indicators show further weakness this week, it could increase the chances of the Fed implementing more aggressive rate cuts in September, potentially weakening the USD against other currencies.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.1000 as Markets Await Eurozone GDP and US CPI Data

The EUR/USD pair is trading flat around 1.0990 during the early European session on Wednesday, as traders remain cautious ahead of the release of key economic data from both the Eurozone and the US. The focus is on the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which are expected to provide direction for the currency pair.

On Tuesday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by 2.2% year-on-year (YoY) in July, down from 2.7% in June and below the expected 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the PPI increased by 0.1% in July, following a 0.2% rise in June. The Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.4% YoY in July, down from 3.0% in June and lower than the market consensus of 2.7%.

The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, with a 50 bps cut not entirely ruled out, depending on upcoming data. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed increased confidence on Tuesday that the Fed can achieve its 2% inflation target, but he emphasized the need for more evidence before supporting a rate cut.

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USD/CHF Dips Below 0.8750 Amid Risk-On Sentiment and Weaker US Dollar

The USD/CHF pair is trading lower, hovering around 0.8715 during the early European session on Friday. This decline is attributed to a softer US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of major currencies, is down 0.12% for the day, trading around 102.92.

Speculation about a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September continues to weigh on the Greenback. However, expectations of deeper rate cuts have lessened due to positive US Initial Jobless Claims and strong Retail Sales data reported on Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets now see nearly an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations of 200 basis points of reduction over the next 12 months, although this outlook remains data-dependent.

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EUR/USD Steady Near 1.1100, Close to Eight-Month Highs

The EUR/USD pair is holding around 1.1080 during Tuesday’s Asian session, after easing back slightly from an eight-month high of 1.1087. This minor pullback is linked to a stronger US Dollar (USD) amid a rise in risk-averse sentiment. However, the USD might face challenges ahead as the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September increases.

The CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 23.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, with a 76.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September.

On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that discussions about potential interest rate cuts in September would be appropriate, citing concerns over a weakening labor market, according to Reuters.

The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, starting Thursday, will be closely watched, particularly for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.

In the Eurozone, investors are waiting for key data on business activity and consumer prices that could impact the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision in September. It is expected that the ECB will gradually reduce interest rates, though policymakers remain cautious about committing to a specific path due to the risk of price pressures rising again.

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EUR/USD Rises Above 1.1150 Amid Market Optimism

The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from its recent losses, trading around 1.1170 during Tuesday’s Asian session. This recovery is fueled by growing market optimism following comments from U.S. Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who told Reuters that fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East have eased after his three-day visit to the region.

While there was an exchange of fire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, it did not lead to further escalation. However, Hamas has rejected new ceasefire conditions proposed by Israel in negotiations held in Egypt, insisting on adherence to terms set by U.S. President Joe Biden and the UN Security Council.

On the monetary policy front, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly indicated in a Bloomberg TV interview that it might soon be time to cut interest rates, potentially starting with a quarter-point reduction. Daly mentioned that if inflation continues to decrease gradually and the job market maintains steady growth, a more regular policy adjustment would be appropriate.

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USD/CHF weakens below 0.8500, eyes on Swiss CPI, GDP data

The USD/CHF pair declines towards 0.8490 during early European trading on Monday. This drop is driven by a weaker US Dollar (USD) amid rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates in its September meeting. Upcoming economic data from Switzerland, including the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are scheduled for release on Tuesday. The Swiss economy is expected to grow by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

The Fed’s dovish stance continues to pressure the US Dollar. Last week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a noted hawk on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), suggested it might be time to reduce borrowing costs due to easing inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate.

Alex Ebkarian, Chief Operating Officer at Allegiance Gold, noted that the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report indicates that inflation is no longer the Fed’s primary concern. Instead, the Fed’s focus has shifted to unemployment data, reinforcing the possibility of rate cuts in September. Investors will pay close attention to the US employment data set for release on Friday, which includes the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings for August.

Projections for NFP suggest 163,000 job additions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease slightly to 4.2%. Any signs of weakness in the US labor market could increase expectations for a Fed rate cut, putting additional downward pressure on the USD.

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Australian Dollar Holds Losses Despite Hawkish RBA Bullock, ISM Manufacturing PMI in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) despite positive Trade Balance data released on Thursday. Australia’s trade surplus widened to 6,009 million AUD in July, surpassing both the expected 5,150 million and the prior figure of 5,589 million.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock addressed “The Anika Foundation” in Sydney, discussing “The Costs of High Inflation.” She emphasized that it is premature to consider rate cuts, and the RBA board does not foresee reducing rates in the near term.

The Australian Dollar weakened further as recent economic data revealed that Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in the second quarter but missed market expectations. Additionally, a private survey indicated that Australia’s manufacturing activity remained contractionary in August, marking two consecutive years of deterioration in the sector.

In the US, the Dollar softened after July’s US JOLTS Job Openings fell below expectations, highlighting a slowdown in the labor market. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI confirmed that factory activity contracted for the fifth straight month.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming US ISM Services PMI and Initial Jobless Claims, both scheduled for release on Thursday. Attention will then shift to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could provide further insight into the Fed’s potential rate cut this month.

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GBP/USD Gains Momentum Above 1.3150 Ahead of US NFP Data

The GBP/USD pair continues to strengthen, trading near 1.3180 during Asian hours on Friday, marking its third consecutive day in positive territory. The persistent weakness of the US Dollar (USD) is providing support for the pair. However, traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected later today.

On Thursday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that private sector payrolls in the US grew at their slowest rate in over three and a half years, with only 99,000 jobs added in August. This figure was lower than the downwardly revised 111,000 in July and well below the forecast of 145,000.

The market expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates during its September 17-18 meeting. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to release the NFP data, which is projected to show 160,000 job additions in August, this report will be a key factor in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next policy move. A weaker-than-expected NFP could lead to a larger rate cut, further weakening the USD.

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