Stan NordFX Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 20 - 24, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Relations between Beijing and Washington continue to heat up, the onslaught on coronavirus goes with great difficulty. 1.3 million people applied for primary unemployment benefits last week in the United States. For more than 17.3 million it was not the first time that they received them, which is 10 times higher than the pre-crisis norm. But at the same time, the risk appetite of investors does not fade away, the stock markets continue to grow. The S&P500 index has been climbing since March 23 and is already approaching February highs. The Nasdaq 100 has broken all records, jumping over the 10,650 mark. Some analysts attribute this to low expectations of a post-crisis economic recovery. Investors had expected to see a complete disaster, but everything turned out to be not so bad, and 80% of the companies that reported showed very optimistic results, fueling the craving for risky assets. Amid the growth of the stock market, the US dollar as a safe-haven currency is not so attractive. If in March its USDX index, showing the ratio of the dollar to a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF), was approaching at 103, it has now fallen below 95. The dollar weakened against the European currency as well. Since Monday the EUR/USD has gone up steadily. However, it fell slightly short of the 1.1500 height predicted by the Bloomberg probability calculator, and stopped at 1.1450 on Wednesday, July 15. A day later, on July 16, following the ECB meeting, a slight rebound followed, but then the dollar retreated again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.1435; - GBP/USD. The absence of any significant drivers last week led to the British currency moving into a side trend, gradually consolidating in the 1.2560 zone. The pair failed to rise above the resistance of 1.2670 and fall below 1.2480, and as a result it placed the final chord almost in the middle of this corridor: at 1.2570; — USD/JPY. The share of the Japanese currency in the USDX is not so large - only 13.6%, but some analysts consider the behavior of the USD/JPY pair to be a good indicator that determines the risk appetite of the markets. However, it should be noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar has sharply strengthened its position as a protective asset, and it has become much more difficult to use this indicator. So last week it gave almost no signals. The pair demonstrated a classic sideways trend of two parabolic waves within 106.65-107.40, completing the trading session in the central part of this channel, at the horizon 107.00 – cryptocurrencies. News of the week: The night of July 16 saw the largest hacking attack in Twitter history. Crypto scammers hacked over 50 accounts, including profiles of Tesla and Space X CEO Elon Musk, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, musician Kanye West, former U.S. President Barack Obama, current Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, Wall Street legend billionaire Warren Buffett, as well as Bloomberg, Apple and Uber, official profiles of Bitcoin, Ripple, Cash App, Coindesk, Coinbase and Binance. There appeared reports of bitcoin giveaways on all of these pages. The scammers acted according to the classic scammer scheme: they asked to send them a certain amount of cryptocurrency, promising to return twice as much. Although the real account owners and social network employees tried to delete these messages, they immediately appeared again. Even the two-factor authentication used for most of these accounts did not help. This hacking attack is called by many a coordinated attack on bitcoin and Twitter, whose founder is a well-known supporter of the first cryptocurrency. However, bitcoin hardly noticed this event. The bears failed to break through the $9,000 level, and the BTC/USD pair rose to $9,180 by the evening of July 17. The main cryptocurrency continues to consolidate after the May halving, the amplitude of fluctuations did not exceed $ 350 last week, which, together with a decrease in trading volume to $15 billion, suggests that most players are not interested in the current levels: they see no reason to open either long or short positions. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 41 for the third week in a row. There is another interesting version. According to Paolo Ardoino, technical director of the Bitfinex crypto exchange, the reason for the decrease in the bitcoin volatility could be an increase in the number of companies engaged in high-frequency trading (HFT). So, according to him, 80-90% of trading volumes on Bitfinex for the BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs are generated precisely due to this type of transactions. Speaking of Ethereum. We have repeatedly written about the increase in investor interest in this altcoin, quotations of which have increased by almost 80% since the beginning of 2020. In addition, ??? shows more than twofold growth in the number of active wallets and is seriously ahead of BTC in this indicator. However, in order to catch up with the leading cryptocurrency, it is necessary that the capitalization of Ethereum grow by more than 6 times, which, of course, is hardly possible in the near future. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 0.0% on July 16. A day earlier, the Bank of Japan remained in the same positions with a negative rate of -0.1%. Of course, when the pandemic comes to an end, inflation figures and which regulators will start raising their interest rates faster will play a decisive role. In the meantime, factors directly related to COVID-19 continue to play a crucial role on market sentiment. Recall that a week ago the Bloomberg probability calculator, based on the options market readings, showed that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to rise above 1.1500 than fall below 1.1200. And now this forecast is supported by 80% of experts, pointing to the zone 1.1470-1.1530. Only 20% expect the pair to decline to the area of 1.1200-1.1300. 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 are also painted green. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to grow up to 1.1500 as well, after which, according to its readings, it should return to the 1.1385 zone. There is such a strategy - to trade “against the crowd”, that is, see where most traders are looking, and do the opposite. The current nearly unanimous “green” sentiment “for some reason” makes us remember it... - GBP/USD. The vast majority of experts (70%) expect that market interest in protective assets such as the dollar will continue to weaken, and this will help the GBP/USD pair to continue its northward movement, which began on June 30. The main goal is the high of June 10, 1.2810, the resistance is located at levels 1.2670 and 1.2740. Bullish sentiment is supported by 60% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. As for their readings on the H4 timeframe, there is complete confusion caused by the sideways trend of the past week. The remaining 30% of analysts support the pair's fall. Support levels: 1.2480, 1.2350 and 1.2250; - USD/JPY. Except for a single release on June 02-05, the pair has been moving in the lateral corridor 106.00-108.10 for 14 weeks, and, according to experts, is not going to leave its limits yet. Moreover, this channel has narrowed even more in the last week, to just 75 points. In such conditions, opinions of experts were divided equally, 50% by 50%, but indicators on D1 give priority to the bears: 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are painted red. They are opposed by 15% of oscillators giving signals about the pair being oversold and graphical analysis on H4, confidently indicating the height of 108.10; – cryptocurrencies. As usual, first about crypto guru predictions. - Max Keiser, the founder of Heisenberg Capital, told the world about the day when the first cryptocurrency will destroy all other coins, as well as which of these coins is "outright garbage". Bitcoin will rise to $100,000, the billionaire said during his Keiser Report show on the Russia Today channel. He noted that the first cryptocurrency will destroy all other projects this or next year, including the XRP token, which is, in his view, “outright garbage.” Keiser was sharply critical of the projects that received government subsidies from the US government during the crisis. This list includes 75 companies related to the field of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. A more modest forecast was made by economic bestselling author Robert Kiyosaki, stating that the BTC/USD pair could reach $75,000 within the next three years. But Weiss Crypto experts said that the cost of bitcoin will reach $70,000 by 2021. This can be indicated by the Stock-to-Flow model that the main cryptocurrency has chosen. It implies measuring the ratio of the value of an asset to its annual growth. Even if the coin quotes are almost unchanged, it remains promising for long-term investments. According to the experts, if the Stock-to-Flow model is maintained, the value of bitcoin will approach the $50,000 mark by the end of this year. A slight downward correction is possible in January, which happens almost annually. A return to positive dynamics will follow, but it could end with an even stronger drawdown. If traders and investors survive the losses and do not arrange a massive sale of bitcoins, the value of the main coin will be about $70,000 by the middle of next year. As for forecasts for the next week, the vast majority of analysts (55%) expect the pair to rise to the zone of $9,400-9,700. 10% are in favor of the pair's movement in the channel $9,000-9,400, and 45% think that it could drop to the $8,400-8,700 zone. And at the end news for skeptics claiming bitcoin faces an imminent collapse to the zero mark. "This will never happen!" – this is what crypto entrepreneur Alistair Milne decided and placed a bid on the Bitfinex exchange to buy 18.52 million BTC ($174 billion at the current exchange rate) at the price of 1 cent for 1 coin. “I hereby confirm that bitcoin will never go down to zero,” Milne wrote. “I buy them all at $0.01.” Milne's application amounted to $185,000 - that's the money for which you can now buy only about 20 bitcoins. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 CryptoNews - Experts from Fidelity and BitOoda said China currently controls about 50% of the world's mining capacity. Previously, the share of China was even higher and reached about 65%, but now many companies have decided to temporarily suspend their work. There are still companies on the market that have the most energy efficient equipment, which allows them not to have losses even at the lowest cost of bitcoin. As for the United States, this country is gradually losing its market due to various legislative restrictions. The American segment now accounts for only 14% percent. According to expert Max Keizer, the bitcoin hashrate may soon become a factor in a serious confrontation between the United States, on the one hand, and Iran and Venezuela on the other hand, which are gradually taking the American "piece of this pie." - Head of Grayscale Investments Barry Silbert is convinced that the US government will not be able to ban bitcoin. He announced this during his address to investors. “We have overcome the perceived risk of a Bitcoin ban for the first time. There is enough support from politicians and regulators in Washington for bitcoin to exist,” he said. “In terms of our relationship with Washington, we as an industry are experiencing the best period ever. Two groups - the Blockchain Association and the Coin Center - are bringing the benefits of this technology and asset class to policymakers. The catastrophic legal risk that may have existed earlier is now over,” added Silbert. - Bill Barhydt, the head of Abra, believes that bitcoin can be called "digital gold", since it not only has a huge potential for development, but already has a lot of advantages over fiat and precious metals. “Cryptocurrencies today are not only a safe haven asset, but also a full-fledged payment instrument. Until a few years ago, they were considered something like an Internet trend that might not have developed. It's hard to believe, but everyone who is involved in the financial industry knows about the existence of coins, - said Barkhydt. - Bitcoin now has a full-fledged ecosystem and its own adherents. Some of its holders even prefer to completely abandon fiat and use only coins due to the possibilities in each individual country." As a reminder, Abra is the world's first global investment application that allows users to simultaneously invest in hundreds of cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, Stellar, Monero and many others. - Analytical service Whale Alert announced that the number of unspent bitcoins attributed to the creator of the cryptocurrency Satoshi Nakamoto is 1,122,693 BTC. This equals to more than $10 billion at the current exchange rate. The service experts have calculated the exact number of coins mined by the so-called Patoshi miner. This term was coined by researcher Sergio Lerner. He identified a certain pattern in the blocks of one of the large early bitcoin miners who used different software. Whale Alert believes that Satoshi Nakamoto was the miner. - The famous Canadian astronaut and fan of blockchain technology Chris Hadfield has become the owner of the first bitcoins in his life, symbolically receiving them from a space satellite located 35 thousand kilometers from Earth. The event was televised during the Asia Blockchain Summit 2020 held last week. The BTC transaction worth $100 was made by Pixelmatic CEO and Director of Strategic Development at Blockstream Samson Mow.He used the Blockstream Satellite service to send bitcoins. The signal was sent to users on several continents who relayed the transaction to the bitcoin blockchain via the terrestrial internet. Initially, the entry appeared in the block explorer, and only after that the coins ended up in Chris Hadfield's wallet. - The payment giant Mastercard opens access to its payment system for cryptocurrency companies. The first issuer of crypto cards will be the British startup Wirex, which has received the status of a licensed participant in the system. Wirex cards will allow you to store and spend both fiat and digital currencies, as well as convert some assets to others. While making it easier for cryptocurrency companies to access their Mastercard Accelerate program, Mastercard emphasizes that they must follow general principles: provide strong consumer protection, operate in accordance with laws and regulations, adhere to standards in the fight against money laundering, and create a level playing field for all stakeholders such as financial institutions, retailers and mobile operators. - Cryptocurrency companies are preparing to file a class action lawsuit against Google, Facebook and Twitter over the damage caused by the ban on advertising of digital currencies on these platforms. Recall that in 2018, social networks began to restrict advertising of cryptocurrencies one after another. And now, representatives of bitcoin companies claim that such actions have undermined the legitimate development of their business. The interests of the cryptocurrency community are represented by the Australian law firm JPB Liberty. The damage amount was initially estimated at $600 million. However, it may increase to $300 billion, as, according to lawyers, a large number of people could suffer from the actions of social networks. “The class action is aimed at recovering losses of participants in the crypto industry and investors around the world. The ban on cryptocurrency advertising has collapsed the crypto asset market by hundreds of billions of dollars,” the lawyers say. - The village of El Zonte in El Salvador has become a bustling area of bitcoin operations, Forbes reports. The cryptocurrency is used to buy food, pay for utilities, repair water pipes and roads. Education grants, bus rides and school meals are also paid in BTC. This has become possible by the initiative of the villager native of California, Michael Peterson, after he received an anonymous donation in bitcoins to help the residents of El Zonte. Most of them could not open a bank account because they did not meet the requirements of financial institutions, and now this problem has been completely resolved. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 27 - 31, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The USA does not bring good news to the markets. Escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington, rising jobless claims, and the ongoing COVID-19 offensive frighten investors, raising doubts about the imminent recovery of the American economy. The Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes turned red at the end of the week. However, their decline is not yet large enough to return investor interest to the dollar - the USD (DXY) index continues to fall and has already reached 94.4, which is even below the low of March 09, 2020. In his speech on Thursday, July 23, the head of the Treasury Department, Steven Mnuchin drew attention to the weakening of the dollar and noted that the USA intends to protect its stability. However, the same Mnuchin said in the same speech that in addition to the fourth package of economic stimuli worth $ 1 trillion, which is currently being discussed in Congress, a fifth one may also be required. And this, coupled with cheap liquidity from the Fed and the possible emergence of a vaccine against the coronavirus, means that stock markets can turn north again, and the dollar can continue to move further south. In the future, additional pressure on the US currency can be exerted by the issue of bonds worth €750 billion, which the European Commission plans to carry out. The lion's share of China's gold and foreign exchange reserves is denominated in dollars now. That is just over $3 trillion. And if Beijing, offended by the United States and PresidentTrump, decides to transfer some of them into Eurobonds, this will cause another dollar collapse, which has already yielded 465 points to the euro in July alone. Of these, 215 points were made over the past week. This development was expected by 80% of analysts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators. And this forecast turned out to be correct, except that the EUR/USD pair did not just break through the 1.1500 resistance, but reached the 1.1650 high, where it ended the five-day session; - GBP/USD. The vast majority of experts (70%) expect that market interest in the dollar will continue to weaken, and this will help the GBP/USD pair to continue its northward movement, which began on June 30. The main target was the June 10 high of 1.2810, and this target was practically reached: the pair rose to the height of 1.2803 on the evening of Friday July 24. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2790; — USD/JPY. Apart from a single blowout on June 02-05, the pair has not left the 106.00-108.10 side corridor for 15 weeks. Moreover, this channel has narrowed even more in the last week, to just 75 points. In such conditions, the opinions of experts were divided equally: 50% for the growth of the pair, 50% for its fall. But 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on D1 pointed to the south and were right. The first attempt to break through the 106.65 support on Tuesday July 21 ended in failure. But the bears did not stop there, and the pair went for a new breakthrough on Thursday July 23, this time successful. It reached a local bottom at 105.65 by Friday evening, and the final chord of the week sounded in the 106.00 zone four hours later; – cryptocurrencies. The past week did not bring anything extraordinary to the crypto market. There was both good news and bad news. Let us start with the crime. Cisco Talos specialists discovered a botnet that infected about 5,000 computers for hidden mining of Monero. And this is good. However, it was not possible to identify the hacker, tentatively from Eastern Europe. And that's bad. And in China, hackers stole 10,000 bitcoin mining devices from one of Bitmain's farms, which is bad for Bitmain and probably good for the hackers. As for more global news, we note the decision of the world giant Mastercard to open access to its payment system for cryptocurrency companies. The first Issuer of crypto cards will be the British startup Wirex, whose cards will allow you to store and spend both fiat and digital currencies, as well as convert one asset to another. The names of lobbyists who prevent the US government from completely banning bitcoin have become known. They were named by the head of Grayscale Investments, Barry Silbert. “In terms of our relationship with Washington, we as an industry are experiencing the best period ever. Two groups - the Blockchain Association and the Coin Center - are bringing the benefits of this technology and asset class to policymakers. The catastrophic legal risk that could have existed earlier is now over,” he said addressing his investors. And although the situation in the US has improved for bitcoin, it is still very far from ideal. According to experts from Fidelity and BitOoda, the US is gradually losing the mining market due to various legal restrictions. The US segment now accounts for only 14%, while China controls about 50% of the world's capacity. And according to expert Max Keyser, the hashrate of bitcoin may become a factor of serious confrontation between the United States, on the one hand, and Iran and Venezuela on the other in the near future, as they gradually take the American “piece of that pie”. As for the behavior of the main cryptocurrency, the forecast that most experts had given last week also proved 100% correct. Recall that 55% of analysts supported the rise of the BTC/USD pair to the $9,400-9,700 zone. This is exactly what happened - starting from the $9,150 mark, it was striving up all seven days, which is most likely caused by the general weakening of the dollar. On Thursday, July 23, the pair peaked at $9.675, showing an increase of 5.7%, followed by a rebound, and it fell into the $9,500 zone. It should be noted that bitcoin cannot overcome the resistance of $9,700 for 6 weeks in a row, although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown to the mark of 53 (41 weeks ago). The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by $15 billion (to $ 286 billion). However, only half of this increase comes from BTC, the other 50 percent belongs to altcoins and stablecoins. The only cryptocurrency with a daily trading volume of over a billion dollars was the stablecoin Tether (USDT), showing a daily turnover of $1.5 billion. The next stablecoin, USD Coin (USDC), shows only $32 million. For comparison, the real daily turnover of BTC, according to the provider Messari, is now about $430 million. Note that the market capitalization of Tether again exceeded $10 billion (for bitcoin, it is now equal to $175 billion). Among the TOP-10 digital coins, Ethereum still demonstrates the maximum growth. It grew 210% heavier in 4 months and almost reached the pre-crisis highs of February 2020. The ETH/USD pair grew by about 20% just over the last seven days. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. So, the fourth and fifth economic stimulus packages, liquidity from the Fed and the COVID-19 vaccine can seriously support the US stock markets. However, according to experts of Moody's Analytics, if the decision to stimulate the American economy is stuck in Congress for a long time, the risks of a double recession will seriously increase. In addition, until the pandemic recedes, unemployment will continue to be in two-digit numbers. Those factors could push the Nasdaq and S&P500 further down, which would return investor interest in the dollar as a protective asset. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are colored green at the end of the trading session, on July 24. Among the oscillators, there are fewer of them - 75%, while the remaining 25% signal that the EUR/USD pair is overbought. 45% of experts expect at least a downward correction, another 35% vote for the transition to a sideways trend, and 20% for further growth of the pair. Support levels¬ are 1.1500 and 1.1380, resistance levels are 1.1740 and 1.1815. As for the graphical analysis, it draws a rebound on H4 from the resistance at 1.1650 and a decline to the horizon at 1.1565. On D1, naturally, the oscillation span is greater: first, a fall to 1.1500, and then an increase to 1.1740. Of the important macroeconomic events next week, they are expecting: July 27 - the publication of data on the US consumer market, July 29 - the Fed's decision on the lending rate and a press conference of its management (according to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%), the data on the GDP of Germany and the United States will be released on July 30, and the week and month will end on July 31 with the publication of the data on the consumer market and GDP of the Eurozone, as well as on retail sales in Germany. Note that, according to forecasts, the fall in GDP (Q2) in the United States may reach -35%, which is 7 times more than the previous value (-5%); - GBP/USD. “Both the euro and the pound” - this is what the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks like this week. Just like in the case of EUR/USD, 45% of experts vote for a downward reversal of the pair, 35% for a sideways trend, and 20% for further growth of the pair. Indicators have a similar picture: 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators look up, and the remaining 25% give signals that the pair is overbought. It should be borne in mind here that on July 24, the pair almost reached the high of June 10, 1.2810, thus completing a seven-week V-shaped cycle. Therefore, the probability of a downward correction is now quite high. The target for the bears may be a return to the 1.2480-1.2670 zone, the nearest support is at 1.2715. If the pair, having broken through the resistance of 1.2810, nevertheless goes further upward, its targets will be the levels 1.3020, 1.3070 and 1.3200; - USD/JPY. As mentioned above, this pair has not left the side corridor 106.00-108.10 for 15 weeks. However, on Friday, July 24, it broke through its lower border and dropped to 105.65. True, then it turned around and finished the last five days in the area of 106.00. So, what was it: a false breakthrough, a move to a new echelon or a serious trend sweep? We'll find out soon enough. In the meantime, the forecast for the Japanese yen looks like this: 60% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the return of the pair within the trading range of 106.00-108.10. The targets are 106.65, 107.50 and, of course, 108.10. The remaining 40% believe that investor interest in the yen, as a protective asset, will still outweigh interest in the dollar, and the pair will go further down. Supports are 105.65 and 105.00. As for indicators, their readings are largely like those of their “colleagues” on the euro and the pound, of course, in a mirror reflection. Colored red: on H4 - 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators, on D1 - 70% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators, and 15% of oscillators on H4 and 30% on D1 signal that the pair is oversold; – cryptocurrencies. Some experts talk a lot about bitcoin being linked to the stock market. In their opinion, the change in stock indexes pulls the change in bitcoin quotes. Though, probably, it is not like this It is just that both stocks and cryptocurrencies are, in the eyes of institutional investors, independent risk assets that are pushed up by fear for the fate of the dollar. At the same time, the crypto market, if compared with the traditional one, is quite small, and any moves by large speculators can cause serious excitement on it, and sometimes a real storm. In the meantime, expert opinions are as follows. 45% of them believe that the BTC/USD pair will continue to move sideways and will not go beyond the $9,000-9,700 corridor. 45% do not rule out attempts by bitcoin to break into the $9,800-10,000 zone, and only 10% expect it to fall below $9,000. At the same time, 65% are confident that the main cryptocurrency will still be able to gain a foothold in the area of the landmark $10,000 mark within two to three months. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 CryptoNews - Some experts believe that the chances of Ethereum to rise to $400 by the end of the year have increased to 1: 3. The impetus for an increase in the price tag could be the higher activity of traders on the Deribit and OKEx platforms, where the total daily trading volume for ETH exceeded $ 50 million. This cryptocurrency has become in demand in the options market. However, despite a lot of positive aspects, the growth of commissions for transactions in the ethereum network caused worries even for its creator Vitalik Buterin. According to Santiment experts, the value of ethereum may rise against the background of intensified trading, but if bitcoin continues to grow, traders and investors are highly likely to switch to it. - One of the veterans of the bitcoin industry, the Abra platform has added the feature to earn on deposits in cryptocurrency and stablecoins. According to the company's website, TrueUSD (TUSD), Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are the most profitable - 9% per annum. The annual return of deposits in bitcoin and ethereum is 4.1% and 4.0% respectively. Speaking with The Block, Abra representatives stressed that the rates will be reviewed weekly. The decisions about their changes will depend on the demand from the institutional clients of the platform. The company also noted that the rates offered by them are “significantly better” than in the traditional market. - The number of bitcoins associated with illegal activity has exceeded 890,000 (about $9.5 billion at the exchange rate at the time of writing). This is evidenced by data from Chainalysis Market Intel. The origin of these funds is as follows: 65% are darknet markets, 23% are stolen coins, 11% are scam project wallets and 1% are other illegal activities. - The bitcoin rate passed the $11,000 mark for the first time since August 2019 on July 28. And this is just the beginning of an upward movement, said the founder of Heisenberg Capital and billionaire Max Kaiser on his Twitter account. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency will break the previous record value of $ 20,000 and then rise to $28,000. If this forecast comes true, the growth of the BTC price from the current values will be more than 150%. But such a scenario is unlikely, says Sergey Troshin, CEO of the Six-Nines data centre. “Bitcoin is attractive for investment. Yet updating the Kaiser highs around $28,000 is unlikely. As usual, the first hype turns out to be the most powerful, other hypes are already lower. Perhaps when bitcoin reaches the $17,000-$18,000 mark, many will start fixing profits, waiting for a correction,” Troshin suggested. And he added that bitcoin could show stable growth in the next year or two with possible small falls due to negative news. Fundamentally, the cryptocurrency market infrastructure is developing, it is gradually recognized as an asset class in the conservative financial environment. The number of cryptocurrency users also doubles every year, which has a positive impact on the price. But it is important to bear in mind that there is a high level of uncertainty in the markets now, and unforeseen circumstances may arise that affect investor behaviour. - According to Glassnode specialists, miners began to hold on to most of the extracted bitcoins after after the price had overcome the psychological barrier of $10,000. The GNI index, which reflects the overall health of the bitcoin blockchain, rose to 70 points. This metric includes three components: investor sentiment, network health, and liquidity. The greatest contribution to the growth of the index was made by the improvement of the sentiment sub-index by 34 points due to the increase in BTC purchases. - The digital market has been fighting for a system of cashless payments with support for cryptocurrencies for a long time. BLINC's new interbank settlement system supports cryptocurrency transactions and smart contracts. This analogue of SWIFT is significantly ahead of the existing settlement system both in terms of efficiency and cost of services, according to the BCB Group. In addition to cryptocurrencies, BLINC supports 24/7 cashless payments and instantly processes domestic and international transactions in fiat currencies - euros, British pounds and Swiss francs. - A semi-annual report from Bloomberg predicts that the price of bitcoin could rise above $12,000 soon. The document notes that BTC on chain and off chain indicators, including the number of active addresses, indicate an increase in the value of the asset. "The maximum level of bitcoin in 2019 was $12,734. If the number of addresses does not change dramatically, it will strive for this level." Bloomberg believes that the continued growth of Bitcoin Trust from Grayscale and the reduced premiums compared to the bitcoin spot market should also be interpreted as a bullish signal for the market. - Capriole's digital assets manager Charles Edwards said institutional interest in bitcoin is obvious as the U.S. regulators “have given it the green light” this week. And "if U.S. banks invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin as an investment, hedge or insurance... its price will more than double, rising above $20,000," Edwards tweeted, adding: "Only 1 member of the Nasdaq (Grayscale) already owns 2% of the total bitcoin revolving offer today. It is not hard to figure out where things are going." - A Federal Court in the United States has recognized bitcoin as money. This was stated by Beryl Howell, the Chief Judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. She noted that the concept of money “usually means a means of circulation, a method of payment or a means of saving. And bitcoin is those things.” The ruling allowed the court not to drop the charges against Coin Ninja CEO Larry Dean Harmon arrested in February, who is accused of laundering about $311 million through his Helix coin mixing service. - Nigel Green, CEO and founder of financial advisory firm deVere Group, believes that bitcoin's bullish activity shows it can replace proven safe-haven assets like gold. “Bitcoin, which combines key characteristics for preserving value and maintaining scarcity, could knock gold out of its long-standing position. In the end, the world is becoming more technological,” said Green. In his opinion, the growing political tensions between the US and China is one of the reasons why investors can choose "decentralized, non-sovereign, secure digital currencies" as a defence against turbulence in traditional markets. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 CryptoNews - Bloomberg experts confirmed the forecast for the value of bitcoin at $20,000 by the end of this year. Earlier, the head of the analytical department Mike McGlone said that the rally of the main cryptocurrency should start very soon. This is evidenced not only by the mood of market participants, but also by many technical factors, including the exit from the narrow spectrum between 9 and 10 thousand dollars. “After a slump of 60 percent in 2014, the value of the coin increased several dozen times over the following three years. The decline in 2018 was about 75 percent. Bitcoin had previously approached $20,000 and even took the corresponding barrier, but quickly slipped. In the current reality, the coin has every chance to gain a foothold at peak values," Bloomberg experts say. The value of the cryptocurrency may also be affected by macroeconomic factors, including the policy of low rates of the US Federal Reserve. Many large countries are trying to get out of the crisis as soon as possible, and therefore allow the drawdown of fiat. Against the background of such fluctuations, bitcoin has a chance to come out on top in investor preferences. - Analysts of the Glassnode platform found that investors have been buying 50 thousand bitcoins almost every month starting from this March. This process is driven by the entry of new small investors into the industry. As a rule, the purchase amount is less than 1 BTC, but in some cases, investors prefer to make larger investments. The biggest investment in the last three months was the acquisition of 12 thousand bitcoins in one transaction. The impetus for investments in the main coin was its drawdown at the beginning of the year. However, after overcoming the barrier of $11,000, the activity of new investors has decreased slightly, but still retains positive values compared to the results of the end of 2019. - The growth rate of ethereum trading volumes in spot and futures markets is increasing faster than the same rate of bitcoin, reports The Block. The ratio of trading volumes between ETH and BTC on spot exchanges has grown from 16% to 50% since September 2019. Figures are based on cryptocurrency exchanges Binance, Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken and Bitstamp. In the futures market, this indicator increased from 8% to 29% over the same period. According to CoinGecko, daily trading volumes of transactions in ethereum exceed currently $15.1 billion, behind the same indicator of bitcoin by only 25%. BTC capitalization is 5.25 times higher than ETH. - Ethereum, like any other altcoin, is highly dependent on bitcoin behaviour. The correlation between BTC and ETH has remained at a record high for nearly three years. However, ethereum's dependence on the dynamics of the largest cryptocurrency has sharply weakened in the past month, as analysts of the Platform Skew note. They provided data which showed that the short-term correlation between the price of these two coins had shrunk to the two-and-a-half-year minimum level. A similar trend was last seen in 2017 before the famous race of the BTC and the rest of the digital currencies. According to the researchers, such a weakening of the correlation can signal the imminent beginning of a new "bullish" phase, which will result in a record rise in the price of not only bitcoin, but also ethereum. - Cameron Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers, Olympic rowing champions and co-founder of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, said that not having bitcoins today is a worse investment mistake than not investing in tech companies in the early 2000s. On January 1, 2000, Amazon shares were worth $76 - now the stock quotes are at $3,138. The growth exceeded 4000% over 20 years. Winklevoss is not the first to compare bitcoin to current tech giants Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon, whose capitalization has increased rapidly with the development of the internet. Last autumn, Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko named cryptocurrency as the next revolutionary technology. In his opinion, bitcoin represents a more attractive investment opportunity than Amazon, whose shares he encouraged to sell. - Famous bitcoin enthusiast and TV presenter Max Kaiser expects a rapid rise in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $28,000. According to him, bitcoin will not have noticeable levels of resistance before this mark. The December 2017 high in the region of $20,000 will not become it either. "Then a short pullback, and an assault of $100,000 with renewed energy," Kaiser continued, though he did not name a time frame for it. But it was identified by the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, who said that the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 by December 2020. Another popular cryptanalyst, Plan B, indicated a longer term. Based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, he calculated that bitcoin would rise to the specified mark only by the end of the next year, 2021. - 17-year-old Graham Clark, who was detained this week on charges of a Twitter attack, turned out to be the owner of $3,000,000 in bitcoin, according to the Tampa Bay Times. The teenager is accused of organizing attacks on Twitter to gain access to the accounts of celebrities, including Elon Musk, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and organizing a fraudulent distribution of bitcoins on their behalf. The prosecution insists all his cryptocurrency assets were obtained illegally. However, Clark's lawyer explained that the young man was already involved in a criminal investigation in 2019. And then law enforcement officers seized 15 thousand dollars in cash and 400 bitcoins from him. Clark was later returned cash and 300 BTC, which, according to the lawyer, confirms that the authorities have no questions about this money. - A new study by Cornerstone Advisors suggests that 15% of American adults already own bitcoins or other altcoins, with half of them becoming crypto investors in the past six months. On average, new investors who have invested over $67 billion in the crypto market in total spent about $4,000 each. For comparison, a year ago these figures were 1.65 and 1.75 times higher - $111 billion and $7,000, respectively. In terms of socio demographics, these are high-income people (about $130,000 a year) with college degrees. As noted in the survey, almost 100% of investors are men. As for age categories, 27% of millennials own various cryptocurrencies, 21% of Generation X, 7% of Generation Z and 3% of so-called baby boomers. - According to Cryptowiki, CWT, a world leader in business travel and conferences, paid a ransom of 414 BTC (about $ 4.5 million) to hackers who encrypted the company's files and stole sensitive data from it. To access the servers and computers of the CWT, the attackers used the ransomware Ragnar Locker, which was used to infect more than 30,000 company computers. Initially, the hackers asked for a ransom of $10 million, but after negotiations the amount was reduced to $4.5 million, which were transferred to the ransomware wallet in two transactions. After receiving the ransom, ransomers even made public some recommendations to protect corporate networks from encryption viruses. They suggested changing users' passwords once a month, setting up the computer policy so that passwords are not stored in RAM, limiting the list of programs allowed to run, and installing intrusion detection system. It's not worth relying on standard antivirus software here. Also, an effective method of countering hackers, according to hackers themselves, is round-the-clock duty of skilled system administrators. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 10 - 14, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling for six straight weeks. The USD index (DXY) fell to the minimum values since May 2018. In total, it has lost about 10% in the last five months. And now, it seems that the fall has stopped: the EUR/USD pair is moving along the side corridor within 1.1700-1.1910 for the second week in a row. Attempts to break through its upper border on August 05-06 ended in failure, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1785 on Friday August 07. The U.S. President, who attacked China's social networks, added to the strength of the dollar. The bears await a full-scale resumption of trade wars between Washington and Beijing like manna from heaven, and hope that Donald Trump will not limit himself to this one-time attack. Congress, which has not yet been able to reach an agreement on new stimulus measures for the U.S. economy, helped the dollar to strengthen a little. As a result, the growth of stock indices stalled, and investors' views turned to the American currency again. U.S. macroeconomic indicators released last week, also forced to talk about the fading of positive dynamics. The Private Sector Employment Report (ADP) looked rather weak, and activity indices based on credit card transactions and mobile traffic were at levels 10-30% lower than before the COVID-19 crisis. The NFP indicator seems to have turned green, but, in fact, the figure of 1.763 million is not newly created, but old jobs, to which people who had previously been sent on forced long-term vacations returned. Recall that in May and June this figure was 2.7 million and 4.8 million, respectively. So the July result was the worst for the period. - GBP/USD. Since March, during the entire period of the crisis, the GBP/USD pair has been showing a close correlation with EUR/USD, practically repeating all its fluctuations. The British pound approached its March high on Thursday, August 06, reaching the height of 1.3185. Some analysts believe that this happened following the meeting of the Bank of England. However, one can disagree with this. Rather, the blame is the general drawdown of the dollar, the DXY index of which dropped to a low these days. The meeting of the British regulator, as expected, offered no surprises. The Bank of England decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the target volume of the QE program at ?745 billion. At the same time, the Bank's management believes that the UK economy will recover from the effects of the pandemic until the end of 2021, and the pace of its recovery again will depend on the pandemic itself. In general, there is no certainty. At the same time, the regulator believes that there is no urgent need to adjust its monetary policy, and even more so, it is not worth discussing the introduction of negative interest rates. Such a move could create difficulties for banks, which are already suffering serious losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the British currency, just like the European one, moved sideways against the dollar, holding in a trading range 1.2980-1.3185. The final chord was set at 1.3055; — USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan is a member of a consortium of several other central banks, including the UK, Europe and Canada, that have teamed up to explore the prospects and challenges of a digital currency launch. Now Japan is actively working to launch the digital yen, for which a special supervisory committee has even been created. Perhaps this event will attract the attention of investors, but so far the fiat yen has again dropped out of sight of large financial "sharks": over the past five days, the range of its fluctuations did not exceed 115 points, and the Japanese currency ended the trading session almost in the same place where it started a week ago - at around 105.90; – cryptocurrencies. The opinion that cryptocurrencies can make everyone, even a child, a millionaire, was confirmed last week. However, this does not always happen in an honest way. So, a few days ago, the police detained 17-year-old Graham Clark, who is accused of organizing hacker attacks on celebrity Twitter accounts. Among others, his targets were Elon Musk, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, on whose behalf he organized bitcoin fraudulent actions. So, this teenager turned out to be the owner of 300 BTC, which at the current exchange rate is about $3.5 million! As for adult residents of the United States, Cornerstone Advisors have recently published the results of a study according to which 15% of Americans already own bitcoins or other altcoins, and half of them have become crypto investors in the last six months. On average, new investors, who have invested more than $67 billion in the crypto market, spent about $4,000 each. Most of them are high-income people (about $130,000 a year) with college degrees. And interestingly, almost 100% of investors are men. And now for the news that scared many members of the crypto community. After an impressive rise to a height of $12,080, on Sunday, August 02, the price of bitcoin unexpectedly, within just a few minutes, collapsed to $10,500, causing panic among investors. However, to their delight, there was no further decline, and the quotes quickly returned to the $11,000 mark. Rupert Douglas, head of institutional sales at Koine, said the move was driven by the liquidation of long positions at high prices. Thus, on this day, positions worth $147 million were liquidated on the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange. All in all, during this "gray Sunday" cryptocurrency market capitalization lost about $30 billion, falling from $361 to 331 billion. The level of $11,000 became a new powerful support for BTC/USD, pushing back from which, the pair was able to rise again to the zone of $11,500-11,850 by Friday 07 August. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also almost recovered, reaching $357 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 77, which is about the same as seven days ago. The ETH/USD pair is back in the $400 zone. It should be noted that the growth rate of ethereum trading volumes in spot and futures markets is increasing faster than the same rate of bitcoin. If the trade volume ratio between ETH and BTC was only 16% in September 2019, so far this figure has risen to 50%. In the futures market, it climbed from 8% to 29% over the same period. Figures are based on cryptocurrency exchanges Binance, Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken and Bitstamp. According to CoinGecko, daily trading volumes of transactions in ethereum currently exceed $15.1 billion, behind the same indicator of bitcoin by only 25%. However, the capitalization of ETH is still significantly - 5.25 times - lower than that of BTC. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The Fed's balance sheet has not been growing for several months, and the Treasury has accumulated more than $1.7 trillion in its vaults. As a result, we are seeing a slowdown in the recovery of the US economy, which is likely to still force the government and the Fed to take new measures to stimulate it. Otherwise, instead of a V-shaped rebound, a W-shaped recession will become reality, and Donald Trump will finally lose the already weak chances of re-election. 50% of the experts believe that the next stage of pumping the economy with liquidity and other measures of fiscal stimulus will not take long. Therefore, the dollar will continue its fall, and the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow. The nearest targets are 1.1840, 1.1900 and 1.2000. 20% of analysts expect the continuation of the lateral trend of the pair within 1.1700-1.1910, and the remaining 30% believe that within the next few weeks it will return to the area of 1.1450. Apart from half of the experts, graphical analysis is looking to the north, as well as 80% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators on D1. The remaining 20% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. We are waiting for data on the US consumer market in the coming week, which will be released on Wednesday August 12 and Friday August 14. And if the consumer price index is forecast to stay flat, retail sales could show a decline in July from 7.5% to 1.7%. Also, on Friday, preliminary data on Eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be known; - GBP/USD. Apart from the weak dollar, the Bank of England's refusal to cut interest rates and increase the asset purchase program plays for the pound. On Wednesday August 12, UK GDP data for QII will be released, which is forecast to have contracted by 20.2%. By comparison, the Eurozone economy fell by 12% over the same period and the US one by 9.5%. And investors assumed that such a difficult situation could force the regulator to take additional stimulus measures. However, the firm position of the Bank's management should allay their fears and help the British currency not only stay afloat, but also push it further up against the dollar. This is exactly what 60% of experts believe at the moment, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. Resistance levels are 1.3185, 1.3200 and 1.3285. 40% of analysts have taken the opposite position. Support levels are 1.2980, 1.2900, 1.2765 and 1.2670. As for the graphical analysis, it draws a continuation of the lateral movement of the pair in the range 1.2980-1.3185 on H4, followed by a decrease to 1.2900; - USD / JPY. 50% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that in the coming days the pair will once again try to test the level of 106.40, and, if successful, rise another 100 points higher. Intermediate resistance is at 106.65. 20% of analysts are in favor of sideways movement, and the remaining 30% are waiting for the pair to fall first to support at 105.30, and then to 104.75. The ultimate target is the July 31 low at 104.18. Now a few words about indicators. While their readings for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on H4 showed complete chaos and relative order on D1, the opposite is true for the Japanese yen. It is almost impossible to bring indicator signals on D1 to any denominator. But on H4 65% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators are painted green. However, the number of oscillators signaling the pair is overbought is also quite large: 25%. And 10% of them have taken a neutral position, painted grey; – cryptocurrencies. Bloomberg experts confirmed the forecast for the value of bitcoin at $20,000 by the end of this year. “After a slump of 60 percent in 2014, the value of the coin increased several dozen times over the following three years. The decline in 2018 was about 75 percent. Bitcoin had previously approached $20,000 and even took the corresponding barrier, but quickly slipped. In the current reality, the coin has every chance to gain a foothold at peak values," Bloomberg experts say. The value of the cryptocurrency may also be affected by macroeconomic factors, including the policy of low rates of the US Federal Reserve. Many large countries are trying to get out of the crisis as soon as possible, and therefore allow the drawdown of fiat. Against the background of such fluctuations, bitcoin has a chance to come out on top in investor preferences. Well-known analyst TV presenter Max Kaiser, who expects a rapid rise in BTC/USD to $28,000, also confirmed his forecast. According to him, bitcoin will not have noticeable levels of resistance before this mark. The December 2017 high in the region of $20,000 will not become it either. "Then a short pullback, and an assault of $100,000 with renewed energy," Kaiser continued his forecast, though he did not name a time frame for it. But it was identified by the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, who said that the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 by December 2020. Another popular cryptanalyst, Plan B, indicated a longer term. Based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, he calculated that bitcoin would rise to the specified mark only by the end of the next year, 2021. Experts of the Zubr cryptocurrency platform decided to somewhat cool the ardor of enthusiasts. They conducted a study of the volatility of BTC and came to the conclusion that, despite the increased volatility compared to traditional assets, the main cryptocurrency maintains "market equilibrium" most of the time. Analysts at Zubr found that after sharp changes in bitcoin price, in most cases, there is an almost symmetrical percentage move in reverse. This means that soon, after rising above $12,000, the price of bitcoin may return to the $10,000 mark. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 15, 2020 Author Share Posted August 15, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 17 - 21, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Citing data from the Labor Department, optimists say that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum. The pandemic-stricken labour market is beginning to recover and may have already overcome the worst stage of the crisis. Unemployment in July fell to 10.2% (against the April peak of 15%). 1.8 million people returned to work in July, a trend that continues for the third month in a row. But, on the other hand, the revival of 9 million jobs in three months is only 43% of the 21 million lost in March-April. And 15.5 million Americans are still receiving unemployment benefits, which is more than twice higher than the maximum of the previous global financial crisis (6.6 million). The market is waiting for the next stage of QE - pumping the economy with liquidity and other measures of fiscal stimulus, but Democrats and Republicans can not find common ground in Congress. President Trump does not want to inflate the next aid package for Americans too much, believing it will make them dependents sitting around the government's neck. But he is willing to make concessions to Democrats in exchange for cancelling postal voting in the upcoming US presidential election. Negotiations go on, and in such an unobvious situation, the markets have taken a wait and see attitude. Although the S&P500 index continues to grow, it does not do it so vigorously. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bonds seemed to have grown after a weak auction, but then fell along with a fall in risk sentiment in Europe associated with a worsening epidemiological situation and poor employment data. The disappointment of the latest macroeconomic data from China does not contribute to the growth of risk sentiment. In general, uncertainty reigns across the board. As a result, both bulls and bears decided not to resort to active action, spending the last month of summer anywhere on the beach. The EUR/USD pair could not go beyond the 1.1700-1.1910 side corridor in three weeks, moreover, the fluctuation boundaries became even narrower, 1.1710-1.1865, the maximum volatility did not exceed 155 points, and the final chord of this quiet week sounded at 1.1840; - GBP/USD. The forecast, which was announced seven days ago, turned out to be almost accurate: the UK GDP in the II quarter decreased by 20.5%. (For comparison, the Eurozone economy fell by 12.1% over the same period). However, this did not affect the quotes of the pound. As already mentioned, the GBP/USD pair has recently stopped playing independently and obediently follows the EUR/USD in the wake. So, if it moved east within 1.2980-1.3185 two weeks ago, now its trading range has narrowed to 1.3000-1.3140, the pair finished at 1.3085; — USD/JPY. Recall that last week, most experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, expected that the pair would try to test the 106.40 level again, and if successful, it would not stop there and go further up. This is exactly what happened: the pair went up against the background of growth in the yield of 30-year US Treasury securities, and, breaking through the resistance of 106.40, reached the height of 107.00. However, the dollar's growth soon stopped, and the pair rolled back downward, completing the five-day period in the zone of the strong mid-term support/resistance level of 106.60; – cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin cannot overcome the $12,000 bar for the second week in a row. Another attempt was made, as is often the case, on the night from Sunday to Monday and ended in failure. After that, which again happens quite often, there was a powerful rebound downward, as a result of which the BTC/USD pair practically reached the $ 11,000 level on Wednesday, August 12. We have already written that this horizon has become a powerful new support for bitcoin, which is as difficult for the main cryptocurrency to overcome as the resistance of $12,000. Bitcoin's fall came amid rising US government bond yields at the same time as a fall of about 10 per cent in the value of gold. At the same time, the overall background for BTC remains fairly favorable. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization grew by $13 billion in seven days, close to $370 billion. The Grayscale fund alone raised $1 billion in 10 days, which is more than in the entire II quarter of 2020. MicroStrategy Incorporated, which is one of the pillars of business intelligence, has declared Bitcoin as its main reserve asset and bought 21,454 BTC for a total amount of $250 million. Commenting on this move, CEO Michael Saylor stated that “Bitcoin, in their view, is a reliable means of saving and an attractive investment asset with long-term growth potential beyond holding cash." By the evening of Friday August 14, Bitcoin had regained its position and returned to where it had already been at the end of last week - to the $11,750 zone, showing zero gain. But ethereum, the prospects of which we have repeatedly paid attention to, has once again pleased its investors, showing a gain of 13% and gaining a foothold above the level of $400. By the way, the above-mentioned Grayscale fund also showed an active interest in this top altcoin, having filed an application with the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) for registering an Ethereum trust. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. Only a clear breakdown of the 1.1700-1.1910 channel in one direction or another can give a clear idea of the dominant trend. In the meantime, amid dying activity, trend indicators continue to look north - those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. And although 75% of them on H4 and 70% on D1 are still green, the rest are already signaling that the pair is overbought, which is a rather strong signal for a trend reversal or a large-scale downward correction. Graphical analysis on H4 draws a continuation of the sideways movement within 1.1700-1.1910. But according to the forecast on D1, the pair, having once again pushed off the support at 1.1700, may go up - first to the resistance at 1.1960, and then to the height of 1.2100. 30% of experts also expect further weakening of the dollar and growth of the pair. 25% of analysts agreed with the forecast for graphical analysis on H4. The remaining 45% are waiting for the pair to return first to the support at 1.1450, and then to decline to the 1.1240 zone. This will happen, however, not immediately, but within a few weeks. Moreover, in the medium term, this scenario is already supported by about 60% of analysts; - GBP/USD. “Both the euro and the pound” - this is what the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks like this week. Well, if not the same, it looks similar. As in the case of EUR/USD, 45% of experts vote for the pair to turn down in the coming weeks, and 60% in the medium term. 20% vote for the side trend, and 35% for further growth of the pair. As for the trend indicators, 90% on H4 and 95% on D1 are painted green. Among the oscillators on H4, greens are only 60% and 40% have taken a neutral-grey position. On D1, 60% are also colored green, 35% are neutral grey and 5% have already changed their color to red. Support levels are 1.3045, 1.2980, 1.2900, 1.2765 and 1.2670, resistance - 1.3125, 1.3185, 1.3200 and 1.3285; - USD/JPY. On Monday, August 17, there will be data on Japan's GDP for the II quarter, which, according to forecasts, decreased by only 7.6%, which is one of the best indicators among developed countries and once again proves that not only the Japanese yen, but the entire country as a whole is an excellent refuge from economic and financial turmoil. But so far 100% of experts predict the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair in the coming days first to 107.55, and then to 108.10. It should be noted that the 106.00-108.10 zone is the range in which the pair has been trading 75% of the time over the past 20 weeks. And apparently that's why experts believe that the pair will definitely linger for a while in this interval. However, 15% of oscillators on D1 are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, and this fact must be taken into account when opening positions. It is also necessary to take into account that the forecast of analysts for the end of August-beginning of September changes sharply, and 55% of them are waiting for a trend reversal and a new fall in the pair. The targets are 105.30 and 104.20. – cryptocurrencies. As you know, there are at least two ways out of any situation. This is the case of Bitcoin — one way up, the other down. According to the well-known analyst and TV presenter Max Kaiser, the growth of the price of the main cryptocurrency is positively affected by the withdrawal of capital from Asia against the background of increasing geopolitical risks. And the worse the relationship between the United States and China will be, the stronger will be the desire of Chinese citizens to move their capital abroad. And it is easiest to do it with cryptocurrency. There is another fundamental factor playing on the side of bitcoin - this is the $10 trillion poured into the global economy in the form of a quantitative easing (QE) program. Recall that in the second quarter, the decline in US GDP turned out to be the largest in the entire history of observations - minus 32.9%, which suggests that the period of ultra soft monetary policy is likely to continue at least until the end of 2020. And some of the funds received within the framework of QE will be on the crypto market. Which, according to a number of experts, makes the growth of the BTC/USD pair inevitable. For example, Wall Street veteran Raoul Pal believes bitcoin could hit $100,000 over the next two years. And here, an important leading indicator may be the termination of the correlation of bitcoin with such stock indices as the Nasdaq and the S&P500. But there is an opposite scenario as well. To understand which one, just look at the BTC/USD chart from a year ago. In August 2019, bitcoin's price also broke the $11,000 mark and even got to $12,300. But after several attempts to break higher, the quotes first fell to $10,000, and then flew down altogether, reaching the bottom in March around $3,800. There may be no such disaster this time, but the pair's correction to the $10,000 horizon is real enough. Moreover, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been at the level of 77-78 points for three weeks, which, according to its developers, suggests that the market is raged by strong overbought sentiment and needs to be corrected. Interestingly, when giving a weekly forecast, most experts (55%) are inclined to believe that the BTC/USD pair will still break through the $12,000 resistance and rise to the $12,500-13,000 zone. However, when switching to the monthly scenario, 60% of analysts expect bitcoin to fall to $9,500-10,000 and offer to open long positions there. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 CryptoNews - The head of the investment company Morgan Creek Anthony Pompliano believes that bitcoin in a few years will overtake the capitalization of gold. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is increasingly in demand among large investors. It is no longer perceived as a supporting asset, making it one of the most versatile investment tools that even government regulators will start working with. When the world has the possibility of “white” investing in bitcoin, its popularity will begin to increase at a frantic rate. “I think bitcoin will surpass gold in capitalization by 2029. Then most of the financial institutions will stop being afraid of cryptocurrency and start investing large amounts in it. Until that time, digital assets will continue to be less in demand than fiat. The dollar and other currencies this year have shown weakness in the face of geopolitical fluctuations and even pandemics. Bitcoin has not only resisted, but also increased its potential”, Pompliano said. - Larry Cermak, an analyst at The Block cryptocurrency publication, believes that if the trend continues, Ethereum can become the most sought-after asset in the corporate environment. “The commission revenues of Monero, Bitcoin Cash and BSV miners remain negligible. I think that there will be two big players in this game soon, bitcoin and ethereum. ETH continues to break records, and BTC still looks very weak in terms of the use of its network among companies,” Cermak said. In his opinion, the difference in their indicators will become so obvious soon that the altcoin will be officially recognized as the leader. Emin Gun Sirer, a renowned researcher specializing in computer networks and P2P systems, also noted the upward trend in activity on the ethereum network. According to him, a typical mistake of investors in bitcoin is that they believe in its popularity this year, even though the coin has actually become just a means of saving assets. - Seven out of ten cryptocurrency investors will keep their bitcoins even if its price drops to zero. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by a well-known analyst under the nickname PlanB. The survey involved 22,635 Twitter users. When asked “At what price will you get rid of bitcoin if it does not rise sharply in the next few years?” 5.8% of respondents named the price below $1000, about the same amount - the range of $1000- $3000. 16.2% of those surveyed would have sold the coins at around $6,000. The remaining 72% of the survey participants said that they would continue to hold bitcoin even if its price approached zero. Almost as many fanatical “hodlers” (57.5%) turned out in a July survey by critic of the first cryptocurrency, president of brokerage Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff, attended by 28,000 people. - Legendary investor Warren Buffett will eventually see bitcoin in the investment portfolio of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway. Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm co-founder Jason Williams is convinced of this. Moreover, in his opinion, Berkshire Hathaway can buy BTC even without the knowledge of its founder. 'These are young managers and analysts who are pushing gold trading and BTC trading. He won't even know when it happens," Williams explained. The reason for this forecast was the report of the management company of the "Oracle of Omaha" to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to this document, Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its positions in shares of the largest US banks - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services Group and US Bancorp, and has acquired almost 21 million shares of the gold mining company Barrick Gold for $562 million Now it's up to bitcoin. - The SpaceChain project has announced the successful implementation of a multi-signature bitcoin transaction from space. The researchers sent 0.01 BTC to two addresses, for which they used specialized equipment located on the international space station. Recall that a multi-signature transaction, unlike a conventional transaction, requires multiple signatures for authorization, which has additional security benefits. “The implementation of the multi-signature transaction in space reflects our continued efforts to create an open network of satellites on the blockchain with enhanced security and unchangeability characteristics », 'reported SpaceChain co-founder and CTO Jeff Garzik. The project is supported by the European Space Agency and intends to create products for digital banks and fintech companies in the future. - Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 next summer, to be exact, on August 16, 2021. This is evidenced by the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used in the gold market. The forecast was published by an analyst under the moniker Bit Harrington. He added that the value seems too high to him for such a period but noted that Bitcoin has always gone against bearish sentiment. Analyst and entrepreneur Mark Van Der Chase explained why this forecast could well come true. “A lot of people think it's impossible,” he wrote, “but I've seen 1,000% growth in less than a year at least twice in BTC history (in 2013 and 2017). S2F holds up pretty well after the halving. If the fear of lost profits resumes, anything is possible. " On the same day, analyst Plan B, who was the first to apply S2F to Bitcoin, presented a chart confirming that recent BTC price movements are consistent with this pattern. According to his forecast, bitcoin could reach the level of $14,000 in the next week or two, for the first time since 2017. - Bitcoin has overtaken the popularity of shares of leading companies in the United States, second only to Tesla. Boeing took the third place in views. This is evidenced by data from the analytical portal Blockchaincenter. Since the start of the year, Tesla shares have risen more than 283%, while bitcoin has added 60%. Apple, which rose 53%, failed to take the lead in any state. TradingView notes that the interest of traders and investors in this company is very low at the moment. - Bloomberg reports on improving the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. The Blomberg Galaxy composite crypto index rose to its highest level since June 2019. This is a positive signal, according to analysts of the agency. Bloomberg experts linked the rise in the value of BTC and other cryptocurrencies with the improvement in the situation in the American stock market. The S&P500 is heading to new highs as investor interest in risky assets is growing again. - The head of Galaxy Digital holding Mike Novogratz has once again stated that the value of bitcoin should increase to at least 20 thousand dollars by the end of this year. In an interview with CNBC, the entrepreneur spoke about his opinion on the future of the cryptocurrency industry against the backdrop of the halving experienced by the main coin and the economic situation in the world. “Bitcoin is becoming a more sought-after retail tool. The interest of big investors in it is not fading either. This is stated by the increasing correlation of the main coin and precious metals. Bitcoin was heavily reliant on US stock markets in March, but now the connection between industries is gradually declining. The dollar exchange rate is almost irrelevant as well. The main reason for the surge in interest in cryptocurrency is the emission of large amounts of cash. In fact, fiat is just depreciating at a very fast rate. Because of this, the Bitcoin rally should start as soon as possible. I do not exclude that the historical maximum will once again be taken before the end of the year," Novogratz noted. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 24 - 28, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. We noted in the previous forecast that only a clear breakdown of the channel 1.1700-1.1910 in one direction or another can give a clear idea of the dominant trend in conditions of subsiding activity. It is in this range that the pair has been moving for four weeks. But the breakdown never happened: after all it is August, holidays, and no extra events capable of stirring up markets, have not yet happened. The situation shows that investors are ready to buy back even very small drawdowns and close positions with very moderate profits. As a result, the breakthrough to 1.1965 did not bring success to the bulls, and the pair returned to the sidelines1.1700-1.1910, having finished the week not far from its central line, in the 1.1795 zone; - GBP/USD. The British currency has also moved into a side trend, where it has stayed for the third week in a row. The main difference in the last five-day period was some dominance of bullish sentiment, caused rather by a general weakening of the dollar rather than a strengthening of the pound. And if the 1.3075 horizon could be viewed as Pivot Point in the first half of August, it has now turned into a level of support. Pushing off from it, the bulls raised the GBP/USD pair twice to aеру height of 1.3265, and twice it returned to the indicated support, near which, at the level of 1.3090, it put the final point; — USD/JPY. The 106.00-108.10 zone is the range in which the pair has been trading 75% of the time over the past 20 weeks. And all the experts were sure that it would stay within these limits last week, moreover, that it would rise to its upper limit. However, the expected strengthening of the dollar did not happen, and those oscillators that warned against opening long positions, giving signals of overbought, turned out to be right. As a result, the pair, having broken through support 106.00, groped the local bottom of 100 points lower. Then, after the rebound, it could not overcome the level of 106.00, which has now become resistance, and completed the trading session at 105.80; – cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has gone from $4,000 to $12,000 over the past five months. Many experts believe that the main reason is the huge dollar mass that the US Federal Reserve has thrown into the market to overcome the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. By diversifying their portfolios, investors invested some of this money in real gold and digital gold, which have shown steady growth in recent months. Another part went where it was intended, to the stock market. But if bitcoin showed an increase of 200%, the gold rose in price by a little more than 30%, and the S&P500 index barely crossed the 50% mark. In the United States, according to the financial analytical portal TradingView, the main cryptocurrency has surpassed the shares of leading American companies in popularity, losing only to Tesla Elon Musk. Boeing took the third place in views. The data from another survey conducted by a well-known analyst under the nickname Plan B is Interesting as well, it was attended by 22.6 thousand Twitter users. When asked “At what price will you get rid of bitcoin if it does not rise sharply in the next few years?” 5.8% of respondents named the price below $1000, about the same amount - the range of $1000- $3000. 16.2% of those surveyed would have sold the coins at around $6,000. The remaining 72% of the survey participants said that they would continue to hold bitcoin even if its price approached zero. In the meantime, the quotes of the leading cryptocurrency are very far from the "zero" level. Bitcoin is swinging on the scales against the dollar - when the USD (DXY) index goes down, BTC goes up, and vice versa. As most of our experts assumed, when at the beginning of last week, the DXY dropped from 93.1 to 92.16, the BTC/USD pair jumped upward, broke through the resistance of $12,000 and reached the height of $12.470. The dollar then returned to levels above 93, and bitcoin dipped to a new, fairly strong, support level, $11,600. The total capitalization of the crypto market changed slightly over the week, falling from ¬$370 billion to $366 billion. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is in the last quarter of the scale for the fourth week and has even grown slightly — from 78 to 81 points. This suggests that the decline in the pair from $ 12,470 to $ 11,600 did not satisfy the market and it remains overbought. And a few words about altcoins. Lately, a lot of attention - and rightly so - has been paid to ethereum. The Block analyst Larry Cermak believes that while the trend continues, ethereum could become the most sought-after asset in the corporate environment. “The commission revenues of Monero, Bitcoin Cash and BSV miners remain negligible. I think that there will be two big players in this game soon, bitcoin and ethereum. In his opinion, the difference in their indicators will become so obvious soon that the altcoin will be officially recognized as the leader. However, at the moment it was not ETH which was the most profitable acquisition on the market, but yearn. finance (YFI). It was this coin that showed twenty-fold growth in a month and outstripped even bitcoin in value, reaching the height of $15,400. By the way, the YFI developers decided to follow the path of the leading cryptocurrency, limiting its circulation to only 30,000 coins, which led to such a jump in value. It is not at all a fact that the YFI price will hold at this level or go further up. It is possible that we will soon witness its equally rapid downfall. The aforementioned fact only suggests that, in addition to coins from the TOP-10, instruments have appeared, appear and will still appear on the crypto market that can bring hundreds and thousands of percent of profit due to short-term speculation. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits again exceeded 1 million in the United States last week. The statistics on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia were also quite sad. Against this backdrop, the bulls made an attempt to renew multi-month highs and raise the pair above 1.2000. The attempt ended in failure, the pair returned to the limits of the channel 1.1700-1.1910, and the main benchmark for the market still remains the prospects of another, autumn round of the pandemic COVID-19. At first glance, the better epidemiological situation in Europe should convince investors that the eurozone economy will recover faster than the US economy. But the situation is getting worse every day. In Germany, the rate of infected with COVID-19 exceeded the highs in May, in France, the number of cases increased by 50% in a week, jumping over 1,500, in Spain, about 4,800 cases of infections are recorded daily, which, in terms of 1 million people, is only 25% less than in the USA. So, it is quite possible that quarantine measures in the EU will be tightened again, causing another blow to the economy, and the ECB will be forced to expand its quantitative easing (QE) program. This, in turn, will push the EUR/USD pair down. On the other hand, the dollar, apart from doubts about the pace of recovery of the US economy, continues to be pressured by the growth of money supply from the Fed, the growth of national debt, the decline in government bond yields, tug-of-war in the confrontation with China, and uncertainty about the upcoming presidential election. As a result, the USD (DXY) index, which shows the ratio of the dollar to 6 major currencies, fell from the highs of mid-March (104 points) to the lows of May 2018 around 92-93 points. Today, the preferences of most analysts are still on the side of the dollar. 60% of them believe that the EUR/USD pair is able to break the support of 1.1700 and fall at least another 100 points lower. According to the remaining 40%, the pair will still remain within the trading range of 1.1700-1.1910, with which the graphical analysis on D1 agrees. The indicators on H4, working out the trend of the second half of the last week, are naturally colored red. But on D1 there is a complete color confusion, which confirms the forecast of sideways movement. And now positive information for those who, in the medium term, are betting on the victory of the euro over the dollar. If you look at the options market, it does not exclude the growth of the EUR/USD pair to the levels of 1.2200-1.2500. However, it is necessary to keep in mind that COVID-19 will surely put everything in its place this autumn. And one of the decisive factors here may be the emergence of a vaccine against this scourge and the speed and scale of vaccination in different countries. - GBP/USD. “As the euro, so the pound” — this is how the forecast for the GBP/USD pair sounds for the third week in a row. As with EUR/USD, 60% of experts vote for the turn of the pair down. They are supported by 75% of oscillators, 80% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4. The closest strong support is at 1.3000. In case of its breakout, the bears will try to move the pair to echelon 1.2665-1.2765. But on D1 there is still a slight advantage for the “green” ones among the indicators. In addition, signals about the pair being oversold are also signaled by 25% oscillators on H4. According to 40% of analysts, two side channels can be drawn for the pair. The first, narrow one - 1.3075-1.3185, and the second, wider in case of increased volatility - 1.3000-1.3265. The goal of bulls to update the 2019 high of 1.3515 is hardly achievable in the coming days; — USD/JPY. 50% of experts believe that the pair will again try to test the strength of the support in the 105.00 zone and reach the low of July 31, 104.18. This scenario is supported by 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1. The rest of the indicators on both timeframes are colored neutral gray. 15% of analysts have also taken a neutral position. As for the remaining 35% of experts, they predict the pair will return to the trading range 106.00-108.10; – cryptocurrencies. The news feed, as usual, is full of optimistic crypto-guru statements. Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Morgan Creek Investment Company: “I think bitcoin will surpass gold in capitalization by 2029. Then most of the financial institutions will stop being afraid of cryptocurrency and start investing large amounts in it. The dollar and other currencies this year have shown weakness in the face of geopolitical fluctuations and even pandemics. Bitcoin has not only resisted, but also increased its potential”, Pompliano said. Jason Williams, co-founder of venture capital firm Morgan Creek Digital, is confident that legendary investor and adversary of cryptocurrencies Warren Buffett will eventually see bitcoin in the investment portfolio of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway. And it can happen even without his knowledge. 'These are young managers and analysts who are pushing gold trading and BTC trading. He won't even know when it happens," Williams explained. Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 next summer, to be exact, on August 16, 2021. This forecast was published by an analyst under the pseudonym Bit Harrington, based on the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used in the gold market. He added that the value seems too high to him for such a period but noted that bitcoin has always gone against bearish sentiment. Analyst and entrepreneur Mark Van Der Chase explained why this forecast could well come true. “A lot of people think it's impossible,” he wrote, “but I've seen 1,000% growth in less than a year at least twice in BTC history (in 2013 and 2017). S2F holds up pretty well after the halving. If the fear of lost profits resumes, anything is possible. " - The head of Galaxy Digital holding Mike Novogratz has once again stated that the value of bitcoin should increase to at least 20 thousand dollars by the end of this year. And the analyst Plan B, who was the first to apply S2F to bitcoin, presented a chart according to which this cryptocurrency may, for the first time since 2017, reach the level of $ 14,000 in the next week or two. It is interesting that, despite such optimistic statements, most experts look at the prospects for BTC quite calmly. They do not exclude that bitcoin, as an alternative to fiat currencies, will receive a new growth impetus during the second wave of the pandemic. If, of course, it happens this fall. But so far 70% of analysts expect that in the first half of autumn the BTC/USD pair will move along the Pivot Point of $11,000 with one-time emissions up to $9,500 to the south and to $13,000 to the north. And only 30% of experts believe that in the coming weeks the pair will be able to steadily gain a foothold above $12,000. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 CryptoNews - A new report by the cryptocurrency fund Grayscale Investments states that the current structure of the BTC market is similar to that of early 2016 before the historic bullish growth began. Fund analysts predict that demand for bitcoin will rise significantly as inflation accelerates. At the same time, their report provides readings of several network indicators indicating the growing interest in this cryptocurrency. This is confirmed by the number of active addresses, which is at the highest level after the record highs of 2017. Also, against the background of historical lows in the number of bitcoins stored in the "reserves" of cryptocurrency exchanges, the number of long-term investors has increased. This suggests that the demand for bitcoin is not just growing, but at some point, may even seriously exceed the supply. - A hacker stole the personal data of users of the CryptoTrader.Tax service, which is intended for tax accounting when making transactions with digital currencies. This was reported by the CoinDesk news agency. At least 1,082 clients became victims of the attacker. The hacker gained access to the resource base through the account of a support employee. This allowed him to steal clients' user data, including names, email addresses, part of cryptocurrency transaction revenue details and profile information in payment systems. CryptoTrader.tax confirmed the leak. However, according to co-founder David Kemmerer, user accounts have not been compromised. After stealing the data, the hacker posted ads on the darknet forums for the sale of the stolen client base. - Recall that the popularity of BTC in Hong Kong increased amid protests last year. And now, after the arrest on August 10 of the well-known critic of the Chinese government billionaire Jimmy Lai, his popular Hong Kong newspaper Apple Daily decided to vex the Chinese authorities by placing a bitcoin ad on the front page. Apple Daily, which is read by more than half a million people every day, has criticized traditional banks by proposing the mainstream cryptocurrency as an alternative. “Bitcoin will never leave you. Banks, it is not you who are leaving me today, it is me who is leaving you,” reads the text on the front page of the publication. And then the key advantages of cryptocurrency over traditional financial instruments are cited: “Bitcoin is digital money. It is not issued or controlled by banks or corporations. No one can stop you from carrying out a transaction on the network, and it can't be turned off. Bitcoin is available to everyone regardless of nationality, gender, or belief. Bitcoin started with a genesis block during the 2009 financial crisis. Now is its time,” Apple Daily writes. - The cybercriminals who created the ransomware Ryuk withdrew about $1 million of the ransom funds through the Binance bitcoin exchange. This is reported by Forbes with reference to cybersecurity specialists who wished to remain anonymous. In response to a request from the publication, security experts at Binance said that "fighting money laundering, ransomware and other malicious activities is their daily work." And they added that their arsenal has a lot of tools to detect suspicious activity. In total, according to the FBI, the victims of the ransomware transferred $61 million to the creators of Ryuk. - The author of the legendary book “Rich Dad Poor Dad” entrepreneur and investor Robert Kiyosaki declared the inevitability of a new global banking crisis. Moreover, the coming shock will be more widespread than in previous financial crises. Investors need to accelerate the transition to "safe havens," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter. He also stressed that the proof of the approaching crisis was the fact that such big financiers as Warren Buffett are already selling their assets related to the banking sector. “Probably, these people feel that the crisis is impending and will affect, first of all, the traditional financial system,” - said Kiyosaki. In his opinion, it is necessary now to transfer your capital into more reliable instruments, such as bitcoin, gold and silver. - Trade in cryptocurrencies through mobile apps has grown by 81% compared to last August. According to the latest report from analyst firm Apptopia, cryptocurrency trading via mobile apps is becoming more and more popular: each new month surpasses the previous one in terms of the number of active users and new registrations. According to some experts, this is due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as well as the rise in the cost of crypto assets. Among the most popular mobile cryptocurrency trading apps are Coinbase, Blockchain Wallet, and Binance. According to Apptopia, Coinbase and Crypto.com mobile apps recorded a record number of active users per day on August 20 - 969,000 and 576,000, respectively. “July is the highest performing month for mobile cryptocurrency apps in the history of the market, but August has the potential to surpass it,” says the analyst firm's blog. - Uber's former security chief, Joseph Sullivan, is accused of paying hackers $100,000 in BTC for concealing information about the theft of personal data. In 2016, hackers hacked into the database of Uber, an international company providing taxi search services, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. Attackers gained access to the data of 57 million users, as well as to the driver's license numbers of about 600,000 drivers. Despite the anonymity of the hackers, Sullivan entered into a non-disclosure agreement with them, under which they were required to keep the hacking of the company's database secret and not to store the received data. Even after Uber employees identified the hackers, it is believed that Sullivan demanded that the attackers re-sign the agreement, providing their real names this time. Law enforcement agencies became aware of the event only in November 2017, when the management of the company changed. The hackers have already been arrested. As for Sullivan, if found guilty, he could face up to five years in prison for obstructing the enforcement of the law and up to three years in prison for harbouring a crime. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 31 - September 04, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: – EUR/USD. 60% of analysts once again tried to give priority to the dollar last week, hoping that the EUR/USD pair will still break the support of 1.1700. In the opinion of the remaining 40%, it should have stayed within the side channel 1.1700-1.1910, which actually happened. Moreover, its finish took place near the upper border of this corridor. The growth of the pair and the weakening of the dollar were blamed on the statement by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole which some analysts even called historical. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent. These changes suggest a softer monetary policy in the coming months and even years. And even more so, investors should not expect an increase in the interest rate on the dollar. As Jerome Powell noted, the country's economy, which is recovering from the recession, needs low rates. As a result, the dollar went down, giving a signal to a sell-off of the US debt. There was a dumping of not only long-term, but also short-term government bonds. Together, this forms a kind of vicious circle, since the loss of interest in these securities can, in turn, put pressure on the dollar, which may lead to its further weakening against competing currencies. The market's awareness of this situation led to the fact that on Thursday-Friday the EUR/USD pair rose to the upper boundary of the corridor 1.1700-1.1910, ending the week session at 1.1900; – GBP/USD. The pound continues to climb to the 2019 high of 1.3515, and it got very close to this target last week, making a 280-point break and reaching 1.3350. The British currency is supported not only by the constantly weakening dollar, but also by the weakening British Prime Minister. According to The Times newspaper, Boris Johnson is struggling with the consequences of the illness caused by COVID-19, and for this reason can resign at the end of the Brexit transition period, that is, by end of the year. Since Johnson will be interested in ending his prime minister career on a high positive note, the UK's parting with the EU could go smoothly, without losing its access to the European single market and customs union. And this, naturally, will further strengthen the pound; – USD/JPY. The pair has been trading in the range of 105.10-107.00 for the last four weeks. However, its volatility has increased significantly in recent days. And the main reason for this is not the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, but the news that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe intends to step down for health reasons. That message allowed the yen to strengthen by 175 points. Why? The question is quite complex. As some analysts explain, Abe served as Prime Minister for the longest time since the end of World War II, and together with the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, did everything to prevent the strengthening of the national currency by any means, including negative interest rates. Such a policy has been called “Abenomics”, although many believe it is more correct to refer to it as “Kurodanomics”. Shinzo Abe is leaving now, and the era of "abenomics" may pass with him, which will entail a loosening of tight fiscal policies and a strengthening of the national currency. In the meantime, as mentioned above, nothing super serious has happened, the yen has kept within the August corridor and completed the five-day period at 105.35; – cryptocurrencies. Even though bitcoin, like about a year ago, was unable to gain a foothold above $ 12,000, the situation remains generally favourable for it. First, it is the soft monetary policy of the main regulators, the end of which is not yet expected. Secondly, we have seen a continuous growth in the number of companies and services that have started to accept cryptocurrencies as means of payment. The attitude towards digital assets and a number of central banks has become more loyal. Here, according to analysts, the COVID-19 pandemic played a large role, due to which a significant part of our life went online. It seems that even the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) has come to terms with the existence of the crypto industry. Cryptocurrency trading through mobile apps is up 81% compared to August last year. According to the latest report from the analytical company Apptopia, this type of transactions each new month surpasses the previous one in terms of the number of active users and new registrations. The mobile apps Coinbase and Crypto.com recorded a record number of daily active users, 969,000 and 576,000, respectively, on August 20. The number of large long-term investors continues to grow as well. So, according to Glassnode, there are currently 2,190 wallets with 1,000 or more BTC coins. All in all, these wallets store almost 8 million bitcoins for a total of more than $90 billion. And this is a very strong incentive for the future growth of BTC/USD. In the meantime, bitcoin found a new Pivot Point last week - $11,500, along which it has been moving all this time. The BTC/USD pair was above this line for the first part of the seven-day period, then it went down to the support of $11,100. But soon it returned $400 higher. This happened largely thanks to the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole, which led to some weakening of the dollar and the growth of alternative assets, including gold and bitcoin. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased in seven days, but not by much - from $ 366 billion to $ 360 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index came out of the last quarter, dropping from 81 points to 74. According to the developers of the indicator, this suggests that BTC being overbought is gradually fading away, so it can now be dangerous to open short positions. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: – EUR/USD. Speaking at Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell, in fact, clipped the dollar's wings. The head of the Fed has made it clear that the interest rate will remain at a record low even in case of increasing inflationary pressures. This is clearly a bearish signal for the US currency, which amplifies the likelihood of the euro and other major currencies rising against the dollar. On the other hand, the Fed has no plans to lower the rate below zero, which is a moderate-positive factor for the USD rate. In addition, it should be borne in mind that other central banks can follow the path of the Fed, not reducing, but continuing and expanding the quantitative easing (QE) policy. So, for example, the ECB may take a position similar to the Fed. Already now, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, has spoken about a similar inflation target. Central banks of other countries of the Eurozone, in which the number of coronavirus cases is on the rise, can also join his voice. So the coming dollar drawdown is not as clear as it seems at first glance. So far, if you look at the indicators, the situation is not in its favour. 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are painted green, 15% are in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, there are even more supporters of the EUR/USD pair growth: 100% on H4 and 95% on D1. But the picture is radically different among experts. 60% of them believe that the pair will remain in the 1.1700-1.1910 price range. And since it finished the last week at its upper border, this means a trend reversal and a return of the pair to the level of 1.1700. The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel, further weakening of the dollar and the rise of the pair first to the height of 1.1950, and then to the iconic level of 1.2000. It also makes sense to pay attention to the graphical analysis readings. On the D1, its forecast for September is as follows: first a drop to 1.1700, then a jerk up to 1.2035, followed by side movement in the channel 1.1900-1.2035. And a few words on the macroeconomic developments of the coming week. On Tuesday September 01, we will see data on the consumer market of the Eurozone, the US ISM business activity indices will be published on September 01 and 03, and on Friday September 04, we will traditionally learn about the state of the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP); – GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators at the end of the past week are looking north. But as for the oscillators on H4 and D1, 25% are already giving signals that the pound is overbought. 55% of experts also support bearish sentiment. Moreover, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, their number increases to 80%. Support zones are 1.3275, 1.3155 and 1.3050. The GBP/USD pair closed the last trading session at 1.3350 - this is a fairly strong resistance level, which it had stormed unsuccessfully both in July 2018 and March 2019, so there are a lot of chances for a rebound from it and a downward correction. On the other hand, the desire of the bulls to renew the 2019 high at 1.3515 is also a strong stimulus that supports the losing dollar. As in the case of EUR/USD, graphical analysis on D1 is of interest. According to its readings, the pair may reach a height of 1.3515 in the coming days, after which a rebound will follow, and it will first return to support 1.3275, and then drop to the level of 1.3050. Certain adjustments to the dynamics of the pair can be made on Wednesday September 02 hearing of the Inflation Report prepared by the Bank of England and the speech of its head Andrew Bailey on Thursday September 03; – USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair is similar to that given above for the euro and pound. Most of the indicators point to a further weakening of the dollar, most experts, on the contrary, to its strengthening. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are painted red. The remaining 25% of oscillators on both timeframes, H4 and D1, signal that the pair is oversold. 65% of analysts believe that the USD/JPY pair will not leave the 105.10-107.00 corridor limits, and only 35% consider the possibility of reducing it to the July 31 low of 104.18; – cryptocurrencies. The crypto market capitalization is only $360bn now, which is about 25 -30% of the capitalization of Microsoft, Apple or Amazon. But cryptocurrencies are not one corporation, but a whole financial and technological industry that unites thousands of companies around the world. And this gives reason to say that the digital asset market is greatly underestimated. A new report by the cryptocurrency fund Grayscale Investments states that the current structure of the BTC market is similar to that of early 2016 before the historic bullish growth began. Fund analysts predict that demand for bitcoin will rise significantly as inflation accelerates. The growth of bitcoin due to the inevitability of a new global banking crisis was also announced by the author of the legendary book "Rich Dad Poor Dad", entrepreneur and investor Robert Kiyosaki. Moreover, the coming shock in his opinion will be more widespread than in previous financial crises. Investors need to accelerate the transition to "safe havens," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter. He also stressed that the proof of the approaching crisis was the fact that such big financiers as Warren Buffett are already selling their assets related to the banking sector. “Probably, these people feel that the crisis is impending and will affect, first of all, the traditional financial system,” - said Kiyosaki. In his opinion, it is necessary now to transfer your capital into more reliable instruments, such as bitcoin, gold and silver. Analysts currently call the coronavirus pandemic one of the main growth drivers for the BTC/USD pair. It is thanks to it that many investors turned their views to the main cryptocurrency and other digital coins. And then Jerome Powell said that the Fed is not going to tighten monetary policy, which in the long term can also lead to the growth of bitcoin. Some experts in technical analysis also see the prospects for a breakdown of the $12,000 level and a rise of the pair to $40-45 thousand on the W1 and MN time frames. However, in the near future, 65% of analysts expect the BTC/USD pair to move along the $11,000 Pivot Point with one-off emissions up to $9,500 south and up to $12,800 north. Moreover, only 20% of experts believe that bitcoin will be able to at least touch the $14,000 mark in September. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Number of Accounts Opened in NоrdFX Exceed 1.500.000 Since its foundation in 2008, NоrdFX brokerage company has become one of the recognized leaders in the international forex industry, as evidenced by the trust of clients from more than 190 countries. And this August, the number of trading accounts opened in the company has reached 1 million 500 thousand. NоrdFX's leading positions are indicated not only by broker ratings published by specialized resources. The company is regularly included in the TOP-10 of many reputable analytical publications that assess the quality of financial services provided. It should be especially noted that among more than 50 of its professional awards there are victories, which directly testify to the trust of the trading community. Among them: - Most Reliable Broker 2016, 2017 (The Forex Awards and ShowFX World), - Most Trusted Cryptocurrency Broker 2018 (Global Brands Awards), - Traders' Choice World Best Broker (Masterforex-V Academy). One cannot but recall the multiple victories in various nominations of the IAFT Awards - an award founded by the International Union of Forex Traders, which is more than 200,000 traders from various countries. So, in 2012, NоrdFX won the Best Broker for Trading with Advisors nomination, in 2017 it won the IAFT Awards as The Best Broker to Work with Cryptocurrencies, and in 2015, 2018 and 2019 it was recognized as the Best Broker in Asia. Evaluating the work of NordFX, the company's clients note its reliability, excellent trading conditions for both beginners and experienced traders, a wide selection of financial instruments, high quality dealing, but most importantly, trust-based business relationships that exist between employees and partners of NordFX and its clients. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 CryptoNews - Many experts are inclined to believe that bitcoin may roll back to values below $10,000 in the near future. Now the main coin is doing quite well, however, with a possible restoration of investor interest in fiat and, first of all, in the dollar, the situation risks changing quickly. It is also possible that fees on the Ethereum network, which recently negatively affected the value of the second largest coin, will begin to fall again, due to which ETH will regain its popularity. “The main cryptocurrency could not hold on to values above 12 thousand dollars, while it clearly lacks support. Its fall will mark a new major drawdown. Most likely, miners who have only recently been able to recover from halving will suffer from it. In this case, we will again have to hope for the arrival of new investors who will stabilize the situation,” said Teddy Cleps, a well-known trader. Analysts from the Crypterium financial company team do not rule out a drawdown of the main coin to the lowest values since the beginning of August either. And it can happen very soon. If bitcoin breaks the barrier of $10,000, the rollback can take months. As a rule, in early autumn, the main coin feels insecure, however, a drawdown gives a chance for a new large-scale rally to start closer to the New Year. - Atupri Health Insurance, a large Swiss insurance company, has started accepting payments in bitcoin and Ethereum. More specifically, it will receive fiat money after exchanging digital assets through the Bitcoin Suisse crypto exchange. “Our company does not own bitcoins. The payment in Swiss francs will be calculated in real time. Thanks to Bitcoin Suisse, we are not exposed to financial risks,” explains Caroline Meli, head of marketing and sales at Atupri. “As digital pioneers in the healthcare sector, we anticipate social trends and offer insurance solutions with a long-term perspective. Among them are blockchain and cryptocurrencies," Meli said. For reference: 200 thousand customers use Atupri Health Insurance every year. The company's sales for 2019 amounted to almost $887 million. - Authorities in the Malaysian state of Johor have detained miners suspected of a major power theft. This is reported by the local news portal The Star. Searches of two clandestine mining farms in the town of Iskandar Puteri were conducted by representatives of the Malaysian Energy Commission (ST), the Tenaga Nasional Berhad energy company and local officials. They found 148 pieces of mining equipment in two rooms. Its owners stole energy bypassing the electricity meters, as a result of which they paid $7-14 per month for it, while the real amount reached $20 thousand. The cumulative damage for the entire operation of the clandestine farms exceeded $600 thousand. According to the newspaper, the suspects face up to 10 years in prison. - Self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto, Australian computer scientist and businessman Craig Wright has already been marked by a number of lawsuits to protect his honour and dignity against members of the bitcoin community. The list includes the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, the CEO of the Blockstream blockchain technology company Adam Back, the host of the podcast What Bitcoin Did Peter McCormack, and the popular Twitter bitcoin investor Hodlonaut. And now, as CoingEek reports, Craig Wright's lawyers have filed a lawsuit in the Antigua and Barbuda High Court in a defamation case against the founder of Bitcoin.com cryptocurrency company Roger Ver. The occasion was a YouTube video in which Ver called Wright a “liar and a con man” for claiming to create Bitcoin. It should be noted that Ver subsequently removed the video, but Wright, apparently, did not find it enough. - Hackers stole 1.4 thousand bitcoins (about 16.3 million dollars) from an investor who held the coins in his wallet since 2017. The victim told the GitHub portal that he kept the cryptocurrency on Electrum wallet, which he had not visited since the purchase. To transfer funds, he installed an old version of the application, but was unable to complete the transaction. In a pop-up window, he was asked for security reasons to update the wallet to the latest version. As a result, after such a "update" all of its assets were moved to the address of the attackers. - The consequences of the activities of the US Federal Reserve System were so serious that even the leaders of such payment giants as Visa started talking about Bitcoin. On August 28, after the announcement of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, about the plans of his department, the DXY dollar index fell to a critically low level of 92.28. In response, Visa's Public Policy Director Andy Yee tweeted: “Jerome Powell's speech today will go down in history books. This is the first time I've seen such a small group steal so much from so many people. Save yourself with bitcoin." - Commissioned by P2P platform Paxful, cryptocurrency website Cripto 247 conducted an online survey of 1,113 Argentines from 18 to 55 years old. According to its results, 74% of respondents believe that given the current economic and political situation, crypto assets are the best option to protect savings. At the same time, 68% of respondents note that investments in cryptocurrency are “quite safe”. - Renowned bitcoin critic and gold advocate, President of brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff is not against cryptocurrency if it is presented as a gift to his son. “Since you guys are making fun of me about my son buying bitcoin, why don't you remind me of this by giving him some more coins for his birthday. He turned 18 yesterday," the golden beetle said. His call seems to have resonated: at the time of publication, 0.106 BTC, or about $1,200 at current exchange rates, had been sent to the gift address. Like his father, eighteen-year-old Spencer Schiff likes to speculate on financial topics on Twitter. By his own admission, he invested $450 in bitcoin a few weeks ago, but the cryptocurrency is still only a small part of his portfolio. “I have much more money in shares of gold mining companies, although I am thinking about investing in bitcoin,” the young Spencer told readers. - The volume of bitcoins held in miners' wallets has reached 1.82 million BTC, which is the highest value in the last two years. Ex-director of leading mining pool F2Pool Thomas Heller believes that the reluctance of miners to sell bitcoins is a positive signal for the price of the coin. In a comment to news agency CoinDesk, he noted that they are now biding their time for better selling levels. However, there are other versions as well. For example, the vice-president of the GRIID mining company Harry Sudock admitted that the decrease in sales rates is due to the transition of miners to new equipment. According to him, this period takes about six months, during which time miners sell cryptocurrency only to cover running costs. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 6, 2020 Author Share Posted September 6, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 07 - 11, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole is still the most discussed among investors and experts. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent. With his speech, Powell dealt another blow to the dollar, which has surrendered one position after another since March 20. The printing press launched by the Federal Reserve during the pandemic and the decrease in interest rates led to the fact that, starting from 1.0635, the pair EUR/USD rose above 1.2000 last week. During this period, the euro appreciated against the US currency by 13%, which is bad enough for the European economy. Back in 2015-16, the then head of the ECB Mario Draghi introduced a policy of negative interest rates. This made it possible to lower the quotes of the single European currency to 1.0500, that is, almost to parity with the dollar. The weak euro contributed to higher inflation and economic growth in the EU, bolstered the eurozone's export potential, making its goods cheaper for the overseas consumer. However, in 2018, the euro went up again, rising to about 1.2000. Then, with great difficulty, it was lowered down again. And now we see 1.2000 again. It is clear that in order to reverse the trend southward, the European regulator will have to resort to a very aggressive monetary policy. The importance of the exchange rate for the health of the Eurozone was announced this week by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. His remark allowed the dollar to strengthen a bit. However, we can expect the main events next week on Thursday, September 10, when the next meeting of the European Central Bank will take place. More on this in the second part of this article. And now about the forecast given by experts for the past week. 60% of them felt that the pair EUR/USD would hold in the price range of 1.1700-1.1910. The remaining 40% voted for the breakdown of the upper border of the channel and the growth of the pair to the symbolic level of 1.2000. If you look at the chart, it becomes clear that both of them were right: the pair really reached the 1.2000 height. However, it could not gain a foothold there and quickly dropped to the 1.1780 horizon. The last chord of the five-day period was set at 1.1840. That is, the pair has been in a smoothly ascending channel with a width of about 200 points for the fifth week already, which allows us to say that the final trend reversal in favor of the dollar has not yet occurred; - GBP/USD. In general, the weekly chart of this pair follows the EUR/USD chart. The difference is that if the European currency eventually returned to the central part of the ascending medium-term channel, the pound did not do this, and ended the week near its upper border - at around 1.3275. However, the bulls did not manage to update the 2019 high of 1.3515. Their upward spurt was stopped at 1.3482; - USD/JPY. Markets are still ruled by risk sentiment rather than macroeconomic indicators. Many investors expected that the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, September 04, could affect the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair, however, nothing extraordinary happened: first, a slight increase by 30 points, and then a return to its original positions. The forecast given by the majority of analysts (65%) spoke of the strengthening of the dollar and that the pair would not leave the corridor of 105.10-107.00. This is exactly what happened. Starting from Monday, the dollar rushed upward, reaching a height of 106.55 on Thursday and showing an increase of 120 points. As for the end of the trading session, the pair completed it at the level of 106.22; - cryptocurrencies. One of the richest people on the planet, Warren Buffett, has invested $6 billion dollars in shares of Japanese companies. Commenting on this move, renowned crypto enthusiast and TV presenter Max Kaiser said that Buffett is fleeing the dollar in this way, the depreciation of which will lead to a sharp rise in quotations of alternative assets such as gold and bitcoin. Perhaps there is some logic in Kaiser's statement, however, gold, on the contrary, has fallen in price by 7%, and Bitcoin has not been able to overcome the $ 12,000 milestone over the past month, starting from August 7. Our analysts predicted that the BTC/USD pair would move along Pivot Point $11,000 with one-off emissions up to $9,500 south and up to $12,800 north. It is this scenario that starts to come true. At the beginning of the week, the bulls went on another assault, but could hardly get to the height of $12,050. Miners, who, in anticipation of further growth, kept a record amount of cryptocurrency in their wallets, worth more than $ 20 billion (1.82 million BTC), began to sell it. The outflow of bitcoins from their wallets, according to CryptoQuant, amounted to over 1,500 BTC during the day from Wednesday to Thursday. Of course, this is not so much, but, as it turned out, it is quite enough for the bears to completely take over the market. As a result, the main cryptocurrency lost almost 17% in price, reaching $ 10,000, on Friday September 04. The dollar, growing contrary to Max Kaiser's forecasts, affected the collapse as well. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased from $ 360 billion to $ 334 billion in seven days. Moreover, it reached $ 393 billion at its peak on August 2, that is, the drop was 15% in just two days. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 points to 40, and just like the RSI, it came out of the overbought zone. The dominance of the main cryptocurrency in the market continues to decrease. If at the beginning of the year its capitalization was about 70%, now it has dropped to 58%. But the share of ethereum, on the contrary, is constantly growing, rising from 7.29% to 12.90%. ETH miners earned a record $17 million on September 01 due to the high demand for the blockchain of this project. Recall that the creator of ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, announced his blockchain as the basis for the operation of other cryptoservices this year, which aroused increased interest in this altcoin. However, returning to the events of the end of the last week, it should be noted that if the pair BTC/USD lost “only” 17%, the fall of ETH/USD at its peak exceeded 27%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. As noted above, the ECB will need to start almost a war with the Fed in the area of monetary and fiscal policy in order to turn the pair down. Its outcome will depend on how far the EU and the US are prepared to go in their combat operations. The forthcoming meeting of the ECB on Thursday, September 10, and the subsequent press conference of its head Christine Lagarde may give the market an idea of what potential the European regulator is ready to use in this war. Analysts at Bloomberg believe that the ECB could increase the program of emergency asset purchases by €350 billion by the end of 2020, and the volumes of other programs - by another €220 billion. Such expansion of European quantitative easing (QE), according to experts, is unlikely to benefit the banking system of the Old World (full of unclaimed money as is), but will be able to weaken the euro. The lower the cost of interbank borrowing goes, the greater the pressure on the common European currency will be. However, it is not at all certain that the victory in this currency war will be on the side of Europe. According to a number of Reuters analysts, if the Fed continues to keep the interest rate close to zero, and the recovery of the Eurozone economy outstrips the recovery of the US economy, the EUR/USD rate may well rise to 1.2100. In the meantime, the balance of power in the discussion of experts is the following: 50% of them expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support in the 1.1700 zone and go down at least another 100 points below. Another 30% of analysts believe it will move in the 1.1700-1.2010 trading range. And finally, the remaining 20%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, hope to see the pair storm the 1.2100 high by mid-September; - GBP/USD. Just like the neighbors to the west and east - the US and the EU - one of the determining factors for the UK economy is overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, and the measures that are being taken for this. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, who took office only this year, plans to roll back a series of stimulus measures as early as September, such as subsidies to restaurants. However, most likely, it will not have any strong influence on the British currency quotes. Moreover, the government intends to stick to plans for other QE programs for now. The curtailment of the program for retaining employees on unpaid leave on October 31 may be much more significant for the market. Another important event is the EU Brexit Summit. But it will also take place only in mid-October, and a lot can change until then. The majority of experts (60%) believe that the pound is already exhausted in its drive to the north, and the pair is waiting for a turn to the south. And, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of bears increases to 70%. The closest strong support is in the 1.3000 zone. There is a red-gray-green multicolor among the technical indicators on H4, as in the case of EUR/USD. However, there is a noticeable advantage of the “green” ones on D1: there are 55% of those among oscillators and 80% among trend indicators. As for the graphical analysis, it shows first the lateral movement of the pair in the corridor 1.3065-1.3385, then its drop to the zone 1.2900 and return to the level 1.3275. All of this can happen within the next 14 days. Further targets for the pair are 1.3480 and the 2019 high of 1.3515; - USD/JPY. If you look at the chart, you can see that, starting from the last ten days of February, the pair has been gradually consolidating around 106.00. Experts do not see any serious reasons for its going beyond the trading range of 105.10-107.00 at the moment. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, 65% of analysts are inclined to favor the bears. And if their prediction turns out to be correct, the pair could drop to the July 31 low of 104.18. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the channel, the nearest resistance will be the level of 107.50, the next one - 108.15; - cryptocurrencies. The consequences of the activities of the US Federal Reserve System were so serious that even the leaders of such payment giants as Visa started talking about Bitcoin. At the end of August, after the statement of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, about the plans of his department, the DXY dollar index fell to a critically low level of 92.14. In response, Visa's Public Policy Director Andy Yee tweeted: “Jerome Powell's speech today will go down in history books. This is the first time I've seen such a small group steal so much from so many people. Save yourself with bitcoin." However, it looks like the market is not yet ready to follow Mr. Yee's call. Most experts (60%) are inclined to believe that bitcoin may roll back to values below $10,000 in the near future. And, first of all, this will be associated with the restoration of investor interest in the dollar. If bitcoin breaks through the $10,000 barrier, the pullback could drag on for months, according to analysts at financial company Crypterium. As a rule, the main coin feels uncertain in early autumn, but the drawdown gives a chance to start a new large-scale rally closer to the New Year. The main forecast for the next week remains almost the same, with amendments of 500 points downwards: the BTC/USD pair will move along Pivot Point $10,500 with one-off emissions up to $9,000 south and up to $12,300 north. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 CryptoNews - The head of investment companies 10T Holdings and Gold Bullion International Dan Tapiero said that Bitcoin and gold can safely survive the next collapse of the stock market. “I think that in the near future, as it often happened, the situation will turn around, which will lead to critical consequences for the stock market,” the expert said. "In the short term, the rise in the S&P 500 may seem like a positive signal, but I do not think the stock markets will resist the pressure from outside." Tapiero also stressed that before the US presidential elections, the situation is changing in almost all financial sectors. If Donald Trump is unable to stay for a second term, the companies under his control will lose share value. And this will affect the quotes of the largest indices. “The market for such investments will not die, but it will be more difficult to get investors there,” he explained. As for the possible appearance of negative interest rates in the US, according to Tapiero, they will make the dollar much weaker and become a "mega-bull" incentive for bitcoin. - The Just Eat network, 15,000 food delivery outlets across France, started accepting bitcoins. The corresponding option appeared in the payment options for the order. Just Eat does not charge fees for payments in cryptocurrency but has warned customers that for this form of payment, you need to create a digital wallet by downloading "special software or application." The payment provider is BitPay, a cryptocurrency processing service. It was reported earlier that more than 25,000 French retailers plan to accept the main cryptocurrency for payment. - One of the three largest banks in Chile - BancoEstado was forced to shut down its branches after a ransomware attack. “Our branches are closed today and will not work in the coming days,” the bank announced on Twitter on September 7th. At the same time, the bank's management assured the clients that their funds were safe. According to a source close to the investigation, the ransomware REvil (Sodinokibi) infiltrated the internal network of this financial institution after one of the employees opened an infected document in the Office program. The presence of the virus was detected on Saturday, September 05, when bank employees were unable to access their work files. BancoEstado estimates the damage from the attack as significant - the ransomware affected most of the internal servers and work computers of employees. The bank's website, banking portal, mobile applications and ATMs remained intact. Recall that earlier the developers of the Sodinokibi virus refused to receive the ransom in bitcoins, preferring the Monero cryptocurrency due to its increased anonymity. - Еhe BTC rate has significantly decreased over the past week and dropped below $10,000 several times. However, this did not stop the number of transactions and hashrate from setting new highs. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, on September 8, the Bitcoin hash rate was 156 Eh/s - this is a new all-time high. The previous hashrate record was recorded on 11 May, before the third halving. Then it reached 152 Eh/s, but soon dropped to 90 Eh/s. In addition, there was a noticeable increase in the average daily transaction volume, which reached 130,110 BTC, setting an annual high. In July, Chainalysis reported that miners had significantly reduced sales of mined BTC. Perhaps the current decline in the rate of this cryptocurrency is due to the fact that miners put on sale the previously mined coins in order to fix profits or cover the need for fiat. - The son of the president of brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, Spencer, continues to buy bitcoins, contrary to his father's opinion. Recall that the gold fan Peter Schiff is in the camp of ardent opponents of the largest digital currency. He periodically posts on Twitter criticizing BTC, calling it a pyramid scheme. On the other hand, Schiff Jr. is actively buying up bitcoins. His father commented on his son's behaviour: “Against my advice, he just bought even more bitcoins.” "Whose advice are you going to follow: a 57-year-old seasoned investor and business owner who has been investing professionally for over 30 years, or an 18-year-old college freshman who doesn't even have a job?" Peter Schiff asks his readers. - The creator of the popular stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, analyst PlanB predicts that Bitcoin will not only reach $288,000 but will also show a further threefold growth. This will result in it costing about $864,000 by the end of 2024. Notably, PlanB is insanely optimistic about his model, believing that the price of BTC is still moving in line with his forecasts. Understanding the reaction of crypto community participants, he added that all this is possible since bitcoin has done something similar in previous stages. - Employees of the Blockchain Research Lab released an article in which they talked about an increasingly popular method of money laundering through cryptocurrency. The mechanism was called “exclusive mining”. According to the researchers, attackers are asking miners to confirm transactions made through private channels in exchange for a reward. Such a transaction remains unaccounted for by many analytical systems, as it looks like a reward from mining cryptocurrency. “Disguising money transfers as transaction costs allows to evade taxes or launder money,” the authors of the article say, “and it is very difficult to detect cases of such “exclusive mining” and to prove criminal intent.” - The new parameter of estimating investor sentiment presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant indicates that bitcoin is “experiencing strong demand from buyers” at $10,000. In early September, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju introduced a new tool to track BTC investor sentiment, which he called Potential BUY/SELL Pressure. Its principle of operation is to calculate the ratio of exchange-traded deposits of bitcoin to deposits of stablecoins. The estimation is based on the hypothesis that the resulting number is inversely proportional to the appetites of traders. This parameter is currently biased towards the bullish side. “Bitcoin is still under strong pressure from buyers. Exchanges are holding more stablecoins and fewer bitcoins than at the beginning of this year,” wrote Ki Yang Joo, and summed up: “ I think a bullish trend in bitcoin is still possible. ” - According to the information of the analytical platform Santiment, in three days after the Ethereum price collapse by 30%, 68 new "whales" appeared, which hold from 1,000 to 10,000 ETH ($350,000 - $3,500,000) and added millions of dollars to the coin's capitalization. Ethereum still remains the second largest cryptocurrency (12.9% of the market) and number 1 among altcoins by market capitalization — about $40 billion. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 14, 2020 Author Share Posted September 14, 2020 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 14 - 18, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Following the ECB meeting on September 11, the Euro tried to fly up and even reached 1.1920, but literally an hour later the market decided that all this was not so important, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair quickly returned to their original positions. As a result, as one third of the experts expected, the pair could not break out of the 1.1700-1.2010 channel, along which it has been moving for seven weeks. Moreover, its trading range narrowed to 1.1750-1.1920, returning to the values of the last decade of August. So, what actually happened? On the one hand, the tone of the European regulator's statement turned out to be even more hawkish than investors had expected. The ECB has taken a very optimistic position on the prospects for the eurozone economy. During a press conference, its head, Christine Lagarde, said that macro statistics indicate a rapid recovery in domestic demand and activity in the manufacturing sector. However, she urged not to overreact to the growth of the euro over the past five months. According to her, the regulator focuses not on the exchange rate of the European currency itself but monitors its impact on inflation. After such statements, the rate went up and even rose above the 1.1900 horizon. However, investors were quick to remember the sharp reversal of the US stock market, the dollar strengthening against this background and the day by day increasing probability of a "hard" Brexit , from which the economy of not only the UK, but also the EU could suffer seriously. As a result, a sharp reversal followed, quotes fell down, and the pair ended the week in the same place where it began, at 1.1840; - GBP/USD. The beneficiaries this week were traders who opened short positions on this pair. As expected by most analysts, the pound continued its decline, losing 480 points over the week and ending the five-day period at 1.2797. The reason for the massive sale of the pound was the latest move of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who introduced a bill on the internal market to Parliament. If approved, this document could derail the already agreed agreements on the country's withdrawal from the EU. In response to this move, Brussels issued an ultimatum to the British side demanding that the plans to revise the Agreement be abandoned by the end of September. But London is standing its ground, and there is no way out of this stalemate, which makes the scenario of a "hard" Brexit quite likely. The United States also joined the skirmish. Speaker of the House of Representatives of Congress Nancy Pelosi said that America would not support a trade deal with Britain if it violated the EU Withdrawal Agreement. Added to all this is the slow pace of the British economy's recovery and the not-so-encouraging situation with the coronavirus pandemic. The combination of all these factors puts a lot of pressure on the pound, not booming anything good for it in the near future; - USD/JPY. Since the last ten days of February this year, the pair has been gradually consolidating around 106.00. And, as the experts expected, it was never able to leave the channel 105.10-107.00. Against the backdrop of falling stock markets, both currencies of this pair continued to act in tandem as protective assets, which ensured their synchronization and further narrowing of the trading range to 60 points within 105.80-106.40. The final chord of the five-day was set at 196.10; - cryptocurrencies. After another unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above $12,000 and the subsequent collapse on September 02-04, Bitcoin rested on the psychologically important support in the $10,000 zone. The BTC/USD pair has been trading in an extremely narrow range of $10,000-10,350 over the past week. Both bears and bulls ran out of strength: the former have already fixed short-term profits, and the latter have already opened long positions with a 20% discount from the levels of the end of August. Of course, both sides made weak attempts to turn things around in their favour, increasing volatility to $9,850-10,500, however they all ended in nothing. On Friday evening, September 11, when this review was written, the main cryptocurrency was trading in the $10,300 zone. Of course, one can expect sharp price increases on weekends, especially on the night from Sunday to Monday. However, as practice shows, such trends are only short-term. It should be noted that the movement of bitcoin in a very narrow channel did not prevent the number of transactions and hash rate from setting new highs. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, on September 8, the Bitcoin hash rate was 156 Eh/s - this is a new all-time high. The previous hashrate record was recorded on 11 May, before the third halving. It reached 152 EH/s then, but it fell soon to 90 EH/s. The number of monthly transactions exceeded 600 thousand. In addition, there was also a marked increase in average daily transaction volume, which reached 130.110 BTC, setting an annual high. According to Chainalysis, small and medium-sized transfers, up to $10,000 in size, have grown to more than $300 million. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained largely unchanged and is now at 41 points (40 weeks ago). The total capitalization of the crypto market remains at about the same level, $334 billion. Recall that at the minimum of this year, March 16, it amounted to only $ 134 billion. That is, over the last 6 months, the increase has been 150%. At the same time, bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its dominance index has fallen from 63.75% to 57.45% over the same period. Ethereum, on the other hand, is doing much better, showing a rise from 10.40% to 12.04%. Note that high transaction fees make this leading altcoin virtually inaccessible to smaller retail players. But it attracts a lot of attention from the "whales". So, according to the information of the analytical platform Santiment, only three days after the collapse of the price of ethereum by 30% there were 68 new large investors holding from 1000 to 10000 ETH ($350,000 - $3,500,000) and added millions of dollars to the coin's capitalization. Thus, ethereum still remains the second largest cryptocurrency and number 1 among altcoins by market capitalization, about $40 billion. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. Let us start with the fact that neither trend indicators nor oscillators can give any intelligible signals after seven weeks of sideways movement in the 1.1700-1.2010 channel and the finish in its center at 1.1840. The experts' votes are also equally divided. And even graphic analysis draws the fluctuations of the pair in this range until the end of September. However, judging by the chart, the bears should gain the upper hand finally, and the beginning of October will be marked by a strengthening dollar and a decline in EUR/USD quotes to 1.1600. Due to the fall in demand for risky assets and fears of a "hard" Brexit, many analysts expect that the Euro will strengthen its position against the British pound, retreat against the Japanese yen and will fight the dollar with varying success, without stable trends. Contrary to Christine Lagarde's statements, Reuters sources claim that the ECB is not at all indifferent to the exchange rate, although the bank does not want to start a war with the US Federal Reserve because of it. In their opinion, the rate of 1.2000 is close to equilibrium and suits both sides at the moment. At the same time, Citigroup analysts believe that if the EUR/USD quotes grow by another 5%, the ECB will nevertheless begin to take steps to weaken the euro. Moreover, according to Reuters, the southern countries of the Eurozone are already quite nervous about the strengthening of their currency. In the meantime, leading indicators from Bloomberg indicate further growth in EUR/USD. The reason lies in the faster recovery of the Old-World economy compared to the United States. It goes fastest in Germany and Norway, followed by France, Italy, and Spain. But the United States and Great Britain are among the outsiders. Certain adjustments to the expectations of experts may be made by the meeting of the US Fed and the subsequent press conference of its management on Wednesday 16 September. And there is a very small likelihood that the regulator will reduce the current interest rate by 0.25%. But if this suddenly happens, the balance of power and the market situation will change in the most radical way; - GBP/USD. The reasons why the pound can continue its flight south were described in the first part of our review. The British currency will be able to stop the fall, turn around and start moving upwards if any warming is outlined in the current tense relations between London and Brussels. The situation is actually very serious, as the future of the UK depends on it. And the EU economy, in the case of a "hard" Brexit, will also receive a tangible blow. At the moment, most experts (60%) expect the pair to fall further. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 80% on D1, as well as 85% of oscillators on both time frames. As for 40% of the bulls' supporters, graphical analysis on D1, the remaining trend indicators and 15% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is oversold, side with them. This may indicate, if not a trend reversal, at least an upcoming correction. It should be noted that with the transition from weekly to monthly forecasts, the number of analysts who vote for the pair's reversal to the north increases from 40% to 70% (hopes for a resolution of the conflict with the EU affect). Support levels are 1.2650, 1.2465 and 1.2250, resistance is 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3185, 1.3265. The target is the September 01 high,1.3480. As for the important economic events, and they will fill almost the entire next week, Monday, September 14 should be noted, when Parliament will vote on the Brexit terms and hear the inflation report. UK labour market data will appear on Tuesday September 15, followed by the consumer market data on September 16. Increased volatility should be expected on Thursday, September 17, as the Bank of England meeting will be held on this day, at which issues on the interest rate and the volume of asset purchases under the QE program will be resolved; - USD/JPY. Also, on September 17, a meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place, which with a high degree of probability will leave the interest rate unchanged. In terms of the speed of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan is among the leaders. So, there is no need for the regulator to make sharp movements, and, most likely, this event will pass without surprises and will not have any impact on the market. It is impossible to predict any movement of the pair based on technical analysis. With the narrowing of the maximum weekly volatility to 60 points and the ongoing consolidation of the pair around 106.00, no recommendations can be expected from the indicators. But the majority of experts (60%) expect the Japanese currency to strengthen and the pair to drop to the level of 105.10, and then, possibly, 100 points lower. The remaining 40% are looking at 107.00. However, everything that will happen to the USD/JPY pair in the near future, including the direction of trends and volatility, depends not so much on the yen as on the dollar and on what happens at a distance of 11.000 km from Tokyo - in New York and Washington; - cryptocurrencies. As for the “best” forecasts last week, the first place is undoubtedly taken by the creator of the popular stock to flow ratio model (S2F) under the nickname PlanB. According to his calculations, bitcoin will not only reach $288 thousand, but will also show a further threefold growth. This will lead, the analyst says, to the fact that 1 BTC will be worth about $ 864,000 by the end of 2024. Understanding the reaction of crypto community participants to such astronomical numbers, PlanB adds that all this is possible, as bitcoin has already done something similar in previous stages. If you rewind the time machine and travel back from 2024 to November 2020, you can see a serious blow to the stock market that the US presidential election can inflict. This is exactly what the head of investment companies 10T Holdings and Gold Bullion International Dan Tapiero thinks. “If Donald Trump can't stay on for a second term,” he explains his point, “the companies under his control will lose stock value. And this will affect the quotes of the largest indices. As for gold and bitcoin, they will be able to calmly weather the stock market crash. And if at that moment the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to negative values, the dollar will weaken sharply and this, according to Dan Tapiero, will become a "mega-bull" incentive for bitcoin. And now about the forecast for the second half of September. The new indicator of BTC investor sentiment, presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant, shows that bitcoin “is experiencing strong demand from buyers» at $10,000. This tool is called “Potential BUY/SELL Pressure”. Its principle of operation is to calculate the ratio of exchange-traded deposits of bitcoin to deposits of stablecoins, and it is based on the hypothesis that the resulting number is inversely proportional to the appetites of traders. This parameter is currently biased towards the bullish side. Exchanges are holding more stablecoins and fewer bitcoins than at the beginning of this year,” wrote Ki Yang Joo, and summed up: “I think a bullish trend in bitcoin is still possible.” 60% of experts agree with the possibility of a moderate growth of the BTC/USD pair to the $10,700-11,200 zone. The remaining 40% see it in the range of $ 9,500-10,350 in the near future. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 CryptoNews - Bitcoin transactions grew by over 75% in August, according to The Block news agency. This fact may indicate a return to the industry of small miners who dropped out due to halving in May. Now they have the opportunity to start earning again thanks to the growth in the value of the main coin. Their revenues, compared to July, increased by 23% in August, while the revenues of Ethereum miners increased by 98% over the month, The Block notes. Not only the number of transactions, but their volume has increased markedly. "According to more or less reliable data, the volume of transactions amounted to more than $191 billion. In July, the same figure was at the level of $85 billion. Some exchanges could not cope with the growth of traffic for several days, which is why they were temporarily shut down for technical work," The Block said in a statement. The dominant market share remains with the Binance trading platform. It accounts for approximately 65 percent of the total cryptocurrency trading volume. It is followed by Coinbase, which has about 10 percent. Kraken and LMAX Digital have 4.8 percent, respectively. The lowest increase in activity was demonstrated by the Bitstamp platform, which now accounts for about 2.8 percent of transactions. - DBS Bank specialists from Singapore are confident that the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of cryptocurrencies by the financial community. The bank's quarterly report shows an increase in the number of institutional investors in digital assets. According to the chief economist of DBS Bank Taimur Baig, the demand for this type of assets can already be clearly divided into two separate phases - before and after the pandemic. Now cryptocurrencies have started to be used as an asset-shelter, because people are concerned about the state of the dollar, and the question is whether to keep their funds in the fiat, Baig commented on the report of the bank. - Aviatrade, an aircraft sales company, offered gulfstream G650ER customers the opportunity to pay in cryptocurrency. According to Aviatrade, the rapid adoption of cryptocurrencies is evident, especially in developing countries with high inflation. As a result, more and more wealthy people are turning to decentralized banking in order to hedge financial risks and to make high-value purchases. And now bitcoin millionaires can purchase a super-fast private jet with cryptocurrency. The G650ER aircraft was created six years ago by the American company Gulfstream. Its flight range is 7,500 nautical miles, which facilitates frequent intercontinental flights. In May 2020, the G650ER was voted the best private jet for international flights after the Global 6000 and Boeing VIP Dreamliner. About 400 liners have been sold so far, and Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are among the buyers. - The board of directors of analytics software provider MicroStrategy, which previously invested $250 million in bitcoin, has adopted a new asset management policy. The published document confirms the company's readiness to further increase its investments in the first cryptocurrency, using it as the main reserve asset on an ongoing basis. Thus, CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Sailor called the investment in bitcoin a reliable alternative to the devalued US dollar and said that on September 14, the company additionally acquired 16,796 BTC for $175 million, bringing the total volume of this asset to $425 million. MicroStrategy thus became the first public company listed on Nasdaq to invest some of the capital in cryptocurrency. - According to Dan Tapiero, co-founder of the investment company DTAP Capital, the market has developed conditions for long-term strengthening of bitcoin. There are several macroeconomic factors that will drive increased demand for cryptocurrency. The main culprit is the US Fed, which is pouring money into the economy, thereby devaluing it. “We are on the verge of economic turmoil; the situation will be similar to the crisis of the late 1980s. The value of American assets will fall by about half, which will cause a massive transition of capital from state securities to gold and bitcoin,” Tapiero said, stressing that during the last two and a half years we have seen consolidation of BTC and that now, most likely, we are waiting for an explosive growth in the value of the largest cryptocurrency. Investors just need to be patient. - The Nigeria Securities and Exchange Commission ruled that all crypto assets will now be treated as securities. According to the regulator, cryptocurrencies are alternative investment opportunities that fall under the same requirements as stock exchanges and their transactions. Curiously, if an issuer wants to avoid such classification of their instruments, they must file a relevant request and prove that their crypto asset is not a security and therefore does not fall under the jurisdiction of the department. However, the Commission's notification did not explain how the evidence process would look in practice. - Former hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's “Mad Money” show Jim Cramer, previously sceptical of Bitcoin, has now called it a good choice for investment. Previously, Kramer preferred investments in gold, stocks, and other assets, and considered bitcoin an "incomprehensible" asset, the rate of which could quickly collapse to zero. However, as the US government was issuing huge amounts of money to ease the economic crisis, he changed his mind. During a conversation with renowned bitcoin enthusiast Anthony Pompliano, Kramer stated that if he does not invest in the first cryptocurrency, his children simply will not understand this step in the future. "These $3 trillion that the U.S. has printed have completely changed my mind," he said. "We will not be able to buy back our national debt. We just cannot. So, what can you do? Either move to another country, or hedge. I plan to buy bitcoin in stages and invest for at least 10 years. That is, my children won't be able to sell these coins until 2030.” - Cryptanalyst firm Weiss Crypto Ratings decided to reassure bitcoin users who fear the downtrend that took over the market in the early days of September. According to their experts, the bearish trend will quickly subside, and in general it is not strong enough to drive the coin value below the support of $10,000 in the near future. As for Ethereum, Weiss Crypto Ratings considers the level of $ 350 to be a powerful support for this altcoin. - According to CoinDesk, users of the Deribit crypto derivatives exchange are actively betting on bitcoin options, hoping that the price will rise to $32-36 thousand by the end of the year. These options were the most popular on this platform last Sunday. According to the company, new December contracts with a settlement price of $36,000 are in the lead in terms of the volume of transactions, 752 of which were counted. They are followed by 462 contracts with a strike price of $32,000. December contracts, priced at $28,000, attracted relatively small volumes. Such trading results are difficult to explain, given that, in general, market participants estimate the chance of Bitcoin's rise to at least $20,000 by the end of December as very low. The estimated probability of exceeding $20,000 is 5%, and $28,000 is only 2%. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 19, 2020 Author Share Posted September 19, 2020 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 21 - 25, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. According to Reuters sources, the rate close to 1.2000 currently suits both sides, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Looking at the chart, one could clarify: not 1.2000, but 1.1850. After all, it is along this horizon the pair has been moving for seven weeks. But, in fact, the difference of 150 points has no fundamental significance here. It would seem that the "dovish" rhetoric that sounded at the end of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 16, should have reduced the attractiveness of the American currency. Moreover, the regulator announced its readiness to keep low interest rates until 2023. However, nothing of the kind happened. The reason is that no less “dovish” statements are constantly being heard from the ECB side. On the contrary, the dollar tried to go up against the background of the fall in the stock market, but this attempt failed as well. Investors believe in the prospects of the euro and begin to actively open long positions as soon as the pair approaches the lower border of the 1.5-month channel 1.1700-1.2010. As a result, the pair returned to its equilibrium state by the end of the week and finished at 1.1845; - GBP/USD. The pound has been growing throughout the past week. And this despite the problems with the UK labor market, the worsening situation with COVID-19 and the still unsettled situation with Brexit. The initial vote in Parliament on the scandalous bill, the adoption of which will sharply increase the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit, did not add clarity to the order of parting with the EU. Taking into account the above, the Bank of England at its meeting on September 17 did not begin to adjust the monetary policy, but decided, having taken a wait and see attitude, to leave everything as it is for the time being. And despite all this, the pound managed to win back from the dollar more than 200 points and reach the iconic level of 1.3000 by midweek. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.2921; - USD/JPY. Like other regulators, the Bank of Japan decided to leave the interest rate unchanged. This decision was not a surprise to anyone. Markets associate much higher expectations with the departure of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Although his successor, Yushihide Suga, has vowed to continue his policy, certain changes will not take long. Most experts last week voted in favour of the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the pair decrease to the level of 105.10 and then 100 points lower. And this prediction turned out to be 100% correct: the pair found the local bottom at 104.25, and placed the final chord in the 104.55 zone; - cryptocurrencies. Last week, we talked about a new indicator for assessing BTC investor sentiment, which was presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant. At the $10,000 level, bitcoin is "experiencing strong demand from buyers," according to the instrument. The majority (60%) of experts agreed with the possibility of a rebound of the BTC/USD pair from this support and its moderate growth to the $10,700-11,200 zone, and they were right: having fixed the weekly low at $10,200, the pair reached a strong medium-term level of $11,100 by midweek, around which it has been revolving for eight weeks. The increase in bitcoin transactions was more than 75% in August, according to The Block news agency. This fact may indicate a return to the industry of small miners who dropped out due to halving in May. Now they have the opportunity to start earning again thanks to the growth in the value of the main coin. And this is a good factor for the main cryptocurrency. Moreover, not only the number of transactions increased significantly, but their volume, which amounted to more than $191 billion. In July, the same figure was around $85 billion. On the other hand, according to Glassnode analysis, almost 10% of the reward to miners is spent on transactions to place BTC coins on centralized exchanges, which is why this cryptocurrency is facing strong pressure from sellers when trying to rise above $11,100. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has risen slightly and is almost in the middle of the scale at 49 (41 weeks ago). The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also grown in seven days, rising from $334 billion to $355 billion. And one more interesting observation of The Block, now about Ethereum. While in August, compared to July, the income of bitcoin manners increased by 23%, the income of the miners of ethereum almost doubled - by 98%. According to some analysts, this may be due to the growing interest in this altcoin from large investors. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. As for the technical analysis, it is clear that after a month and a half of the pair's movement in the 1700-1.2010 corridor and the finish at its center at 1.1845, neither trend indicators nor oscillators can give any intelligible signals. Graphical analysis on D1 also draws the continuation of the sideways trend. However, given the fact that the pair finished the last week near the 1.1900 resistance and that 15% of oscillators indicate it is overbought, we can expect its correction to the south. Most experts agree with this (75%). However, only global economic policy will be able to give a confident command for the EUR/USD pair to break through the boundaries of the specified channel in one direction or another. There are plenty of arguments about the euro strengthening. We have already written that Bloomberg's outperforming indicators indicate further growth of EUR/USD. The reason lies in the faster recovery of the Old-World economy compared to the United States. The diversification of gold and foreign exchange reserves by the central banks of leading countries is also developing in favour of the European currency. And then there is China, the main export partner of the Eurozone, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, showed GDP growth in the second quarter. And, finally, one cannot ignore the intention of the Federal Reserve to reduce the price of the dollar, and the unwillingness of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, to start a currency war with her overseas colleagues because of this. We will be listening to Fed Chief Jerome Powell's speeches for most of the coming week. It will start right on Monday September 21st, followed by a speech in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. And on September 24, he will be accompanied by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin. Will they say something fundamentally new or repeat just what Powell talked about on September 16? Most likely the second. But their speeches will surely be able to cause an increase in volatility; - GBP/USD. The situation with the indicator readings here resembles the discord in the British Parliament during the Brexit vote. The only ones that give more or less clear signals are the oscillators on D1 - 75% of them are coloured red. But here the remaining 25% is already signaling that the pair is oversold. There is no consensus among the experts either, their opinions were equally divided: a third - for the growth of the pair, a third - for its fall, and a third turned their eyes to the east. The graphic analysis was not clear either. Unlike most oscillators on D1, it indicates that the pair will first rise to 1.3000, and in case of a breakout, the next target will be 1.3185. The ultimate goal of the bulls is to retest the September 01 high at 1.3480. Support levels are 1.2760, 1.2650, 1.2500. Moving from technical to fundamental analysis, it is necessary to recall the details of the last meeting of the Bank of England. Despite the absence of any decisions, the regulator's management did not hide that discussed the possibility of introducing negative rates as early as this November. And if such a decision is made, it can send the pound into a deep knockout. In the meantime, investors hope to be able to gain greater clarity on this issue from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday 22 September; - USD/JPY. Although the Bank of Japan has raised its assessment of the state of the economy, the government has no intention of altering the volume of the stimulus program. Therefore, in this case, investors are more guided by the “dovish” statements of the Fed. Undoubtedly, the fall of US stock markets also plays a role. As a result, just like a week ago, the majority of experts (60%) side with the bears, who expect the pair to continue downtrend and further strengthen the Japanese currency. At the same time, they do not exclude that it can reach first the low of 09 March 101.17, and then the psychologically important level of 100.00 in the coming weeks. The closest support is located in the 104.20 zone. The remaining 40% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect that the pair will not be able to break through the 104.20 level and will rebound upward and return to the 105.80-106.30 zone. 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling that the pair is oversold, agree with this scenario. It should be noted here that with the transition to the mid-term forecast, the number of supporters of the growth of the pair increases to 70%; - cryptocurrencies. According to Dan Tapiero, co-founder of investment company DTAP Capital, the market has developed conditions for long-term strengthening of bitcoin. There are several macroeconomic factors that will drive increased demand for cryptocurrency. The main culprit is the US Fed, which is pouring money into the economy, thereby devaluing it. “We are on the verge of economic turmoil; the situation will be similar to the crisis of the late 1980s. The value of American assets will fall by about half, which will cause a massive transition of capital from state securities to gold and bitcoin,” Tapiero said, stressing that during the last two and a half years we have seen consolidation of BTC and that now, most likely, we are waiting for an explosive growth in the value of the largest cryptocurrency. Investors just need to be patient. Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, who also considers bitcoin to be one of the best long-term investments, agrees with Tapiero. True, he warns that the invention of a valid coronavirus vaccine could lead to a collapse in the price of bitcoin and gold, which Kiyosaki sees as safe haven assets. But it is at this point that investors will have a great opportunity to acquire these assets. The opposite point of view was expressed by analysts from Weiss Crypto Ratings, who believe that the Bitcoin downtrend that took over the market in the early days of September is not strong enough to drive the coin value below $10,000 in the near future. (For Ethereum, Weiss Crypto Ratings consider the $350 level to be strong support.) Interesting results were also shown by recent trading on the Deribit crypto derivatives exchange. Their participants actively bet on bitcoin options with the expectation that the price will rise to $32-36 thousand by the end of the year. According to the company, December contracts with a settlement price of $36,000 are in the lead, 752 of which were counted. They are followed by 462 contracts with a strike price of $32,000. December contracts, priced at $28,000, attracted relatively small volumes. Such trading results are difficult to explain, given that, in general, market participants estimate the chance of Bitcoin's rise to at least $20,000 by the end of December as very low. The estimated probability of exceeding $20,000 is 5%, and $ 28,000 is only 2%. Most experts (65%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will meet 2021 in the $9,000-10,000 range, 10% believe that it will continue to move along $11,000, and only 25% expect to see it above $12,000. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 CryptoNews - 45 of 50 UK and US pension funds and insurance companies with assets of about $80 billion will increase investments in cryptocurrencies in the next five years. This follows from a survey conducted by crypto insurance provider Evertas in conjunction with the analytical company Pureprofile. 84% of respondents believe that the expected improvement in market regulation will contribute to the growth of institutional investors' interest in cryptocurrencies, 80% cited increased liquidity as the reason. 64% of survey participants are confident in the positive dynamics of investments in cryptocurrencies, and 26% expect their radical growth. Negative interest rates on traditional financial instruments can become a serious impetus for the transition to the cryptocurrency space. The barrier for the active growth of crypto investments is the lack of a suitable option for their insurance coverage. This was stated by representatives of 28 out of 50 companies. - The head of the blockchain centre CryptoQuant Kim Yong-ju believes that the next sale of bitcoins by miners will not be able to have a strong impact on the cryptocurrency market. Now, block miners are still trying to get rid of their accumulations, but not on the same scale as it was about a month ago. “The consequence of the last sale was a sharp decline in the value of the main coin. Since then, the cryptocurrency market has been trying to regain lost ground. The main asset is trying now to overcome the barrier of $11,000, but so far it is hampered by periodic corrections. Most likely, in the long term, the large number of bitcoins that miners have put up for sale will have a positive impact on the market, as it will increase activity, but now their actions are putting pressure on the industry,” the head of CryptoQuant explains. - Well-known analyst Willie Wu also spoke about the current situation in the cryptocurrency market. According to him, miners now represent only one of two factors that put serious pressure on bitcoin. The second strong factor, according to Wu, is the exchanges. Commissions on them are a kind of tax for the market. Because of this, miners are forced to go to the exchanges to sell their assets as quickly as possible, trying to pay lowest fees for transactions. "This intersection of basic factors prevents bitcoin from getting out of a narrow frame between 10 and 11 thousand dollars," the analyst said. - There was another recalculation of the complexity of mining in the bitcoin network last Sunday, as a result of which the value reached a new historical high. According to BTC.com, the complexity increased by 11.35% to 19.31T on block 649,152. The previous record was set on August 24 at 17.56T. The increase in complexity is a result of the high speed of adding blocks to the blockchain - over the past two weeks, one block was added on average every 8 minutes 59 seconds, with a target of 10 minutes. - Encryption viruses disappeared from the TOP threats in the first half of 2020: they accounted for only 1% of the total number of hacker attacks. This was reported by experts from Group-IB. And this despite the fact that bitcoin ransomware was in every second malicious mailing list at the end of 2019. Now, however, fraudsters have shifted the focus of their attacks from individual users to large corporate networks. “Hackers focused on targeted attacks, choosing large victims and demanding significantly large sums of money from them. Probably, the desire of encryption operators to hit a big jackpot will gradually lead to an increase in targeted attacks, while email will continue to be the main source of their distribution,” the experts explain. The leader among the threats of the first half of 2020. was phishing disguised as various online services. Amid the pandemic and the transition of businesses online, the number of fake web pages has risen to a record 46%. - According to Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, the limited number of BTC coins and the growing level of adoption will lead to a gradual steady increase in its value. “I don't see what could stop Bitcoin from doing what it has been doing successfully over the past 10 years, namely, grow,” McGlone said. Bitcoin's fixed supply, according to the strategist, makes it a better means of saving than gold, the total number of which remains unknown. McGlone named the growing number of active bitcoin addresses and the increasing flow of BTC to regulated exchanges as two main factors proving the growing demand for the main cryptocurrency. Another indicator pointing to the growing maturity of bitcoin as an asset class is the decrease in its volatility compared to the Nasdaq index. VanEck strategist Gabor Gurbax approached the assessment of the prospects for bitcoin more carefully. “Bitcoin is better than gold in some respects and worse in others. The free market will decide itself which of them wins,” he wrote. For reference: the advantage is clearly still on the side of gold at present, its capitalization is about $9 trillion, while the cost of all BTC coins is about $205 billion, that is, 44 times lower. - Caffe Barbera, which is positioned as the “oldest roasting plant in Italy”, has started accepting payments in cryptocurrencies. For this company, this is the fourth generation of currencies: first, payments were accepted in the lira of the Kingdom of Italy, then in the lira of the Republic, then in euros. And now, Caffe Barbera celebrated its 150th anniversary by joining the digital revolution. Today the company has a presence in 55 countries, and its e-commerce site operates on five continents. According to the management of the “coffee empire”, thanks to the use of BTC, ETH and XRP, the number of geographical regions can be increased. “The cryptocurrency market is full of charm and fits with our philosophy,” the move is explained at Caffe Barbera. - Analytical agency Cane Island Digital Research has published the results of a study according to which the total number of bitcoins in circulation will be significantly less than the planned emission volume. In particular, analysts have come to the conclusion that since 2010, about 4% of the total amount of available assets has been lost in the bitcoin blockchain every year. So, the report says, the current available supply will be around 13.9 million, well below the expected total supply of 18.3 million. At the same time, for the first time since May 2020, the irrecoverable losses of this cryptocurrency exceed the rate of production of new coins. Most of this dramatic change is due to the May halving, which reduced the miner reward of 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block. - On September 17, the management of the Bank of England held a discussion of the current issues of monetary policy. From the published transcript of the unfolding discussion, it became clear that the UK may very soon move to negative interest rates. The emergence of such a news message has not gone unnoticed in the crypto community. Billionaire and bitcoin investor Tyler Winklevoss stated immediately that “if the Bank of England decides to move to negative interest rates, they will pay extra if you borrow money from them. It is difficult to imagine a better motive for investors to start taking out such loans and investing in bitcoins for a long time." #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted September 27, 2020 Author Share Posted September 27, 2020 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 28 - October 02, 2020 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The overwhelming majority of experts (75%), supported by the oscillators indicating that this pair is overbought, expected its correction to the south. The argument was that the pair ended the week near the strong resistance zone of 1.1900 on Friday, September 18. The above scenario came true 100%, and finally breaking through the mid-term support at 1.1700, the EUR/USD pair flew downward last week, finding the local bottom at 1.1610. There are several macro-reasons for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the euro. First, it is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries. Secondly, skepticism about the prospects for the recovery of the American economy. Fed Chairman Robert Powell has once again urged the government to discuss the issue of additional incentives in the framework of QE. We must not lose sight of the situation with the growth of the yield on US government bonds. All this made investors once again turn their backs on the stock market and commodities and think of the dollar as a protective asset. As a result, active buying of the American currency followed, the DXY index, reflecting the value of the USD against a basket of major currencies, went up sharply, reaching the height of 94.70, and the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1625; - GBP/USD. First, a few words about a non-standard pair, BTC/GBP. Rather, about what will happen to bitcoin if the Bank of England decides to lower the interest rate to negative values. Recall that at the last meeting, on September 17, the Bank's management did not adjust this rate, but it became clear from the published transcript that this is not excluded and could happen in the foreseeable future. The appearance of such a news report has not been overlooked in the crypto sphere. Billionaire and bitcoin investor Tyler Winklevoss stated immediately that “if the Bank of England decides to move to negative interest rates, they will pay extra if you borrow money from them. It is difficult to imagine a better motive for investors to start taking out such loans and investing in bitcoins for a long time." Great prospect for Winklevoss and the core cryptocurrency. But so far this has not happened, let's return to the GBP/USD chart. On Monday-Tuesday, the pound was retreating facing the American currency onslaught, however, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the second half of the week. Despite the fact that the UK, like France, reported a record increase in the number of infected with the coronavirus, the new government employment program helped, unlike the euro, to keep the British currency from further falling, allowing it to complete the five-day period at 1.2745; - USD/JPY. As expected by 40% of analysts, the pair was unable to gain a foothold in the 104.00 zone, after which it went up 155 points. The week's results showed that investors at this stage decided to consider the dollar as the main protective asset, not gold or yen. Evidence of this is the sharp change in the correlation of the Japanese currency with the volatility of US stock indices, which determine the rise or fall of risk sentiment. The result of the last five-day period was the return of the pair within the two-month channel 105.20-106.55 and the final chord at 105.57; - cryptocurrencies. Another attempt of bitcoin to gain a foothold above the $11,000 mark ended in another failure. As is often the case, the leap was taken over the weekend when the world's major exchanges were closed. But as soon as the traditional markets opened, the BTC/USD pair went down. Moreover, it is not entirely clear with what bitcoin correlates more, with risky stock assets or with such a defensive asset as gold. Everything was falling last week, but only the dollar rose in price. Therefore, it would probably be more correct to talk about the inverse correlation between the main cryptocurrency and the main world currency. (Although, it is clear anyway). By the evening of Friday, September 25, gold dipped 5%, the S&P500 index lost 2.5%, the Dow Jones - 3.5%, and BTC - 3.2%. Moreover, on Wednesday, at its low, bitcoin fell to the level of $10.125, losing 7.5%. According to the proponents of correlation with the stock market, the reason for the fall in the BTC/USD rate was a decline in share prices due to the Fed's statement that the US economy is still in a deep crisis, and because of another jump in the incidence of COVID-19. The news from China that the People's Bank of China may block the accounts of traders related to OTC trade for 5 years as part of the fight against money laundering cryptocurrencies, played its role as well. Naturally, bitcoin is also under pressure from the ongoing sale of this cryptocurrency by miners. Block miners are still trying to get rid of savings, although not on the same scale as they were at the end of August. Moreover, according to a number of experts, miners now represent only one of two factors that put serious pressure on bitcoin. The second strong factor is the exchanges. Commissions on them are a kind of tax for the market, which is why miners rush to sell their assets as quickly as possible, trying to pay as low commission fees for transactions as possible. Such an intersection of basic factors, according to renowned analyst Willy Wu, does not allow bitcoin to get out of the narrow framework between 10 and 11 thousand dollars. The total capitalization of the crypto market, having fallen in a seven-day period from $355 billion, returned to the level of two weeks ago in the area from $335 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is almost the same as before, at 46 (49 a week ago). But the bitcoin dominance index rose by 1.4%, and this despite the fall in the value of this coin. This fact only indicates that the sale of altcoins is going even faster. So, for example, if the BTC/USD pair lost 3.2% in seven days, ethereum (ETH/USD) fell by as much as 10%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. It is difficult to predict whether the correction of this pair last week will develop into a long-term trend, or it will return to the limits of channel 1.1700-1.2010. But it is clear that a further sell-off of the European currency and a rise in the US dollar as a protective asset could cause the stock and commodities markets to collapse. This will be facilitated by an increase in the yield of US government bonds as well. Some forecasts suggest it could rise from the current 1.2% to 1.5%. On the other hand, the largest multinational corporations in the United States do not need a strong dollar at all, since this will lead to higher prices for their goods and, as a result, decrease in sales and profits. The upcoming presidential elections are catching up even more fog, since their results could radically affect the monetary policy of the US government, as well as Washington's relations with Brussels and Beijing. In general, the situation is more than ambiguous. Therefore, the experts' votes were distributed as follows: 30% - for the fall of the EUR/USD pair, 30% - for its growth, and 40% took a neutral position. As for technical analysis, the dollar wins with a clear advantage. Graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on H4, 80% on D1, and 85% of oscillators on both timeframes have voted for its growth and further decline in the pair. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold. Support at levels 1.1400, 1.1285, 1.1240 and 1.1165. Resistance levels are 1.1700, 1.1765, 1.1900 and 1.2010. As for the macro events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to data on the consumer market of the US, Germany, and Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday 30 September. It will become known on the same day how much the US GDP fell in the second quarter of 2020. And of course, do not forget that traditionally on the first Friday of the month, October 02, the data on the US labor market will become known, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP); - GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, unsettled Brexit conditions, weak economic data and the prospect of negative interest rates, the British currency can hardly boast of strong, impenetrable support. That is why 65% of experts believe that after a temporary respite, the pound will go down again. 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 fully agree with this. The nearest target of the bears is the 1.2500 zone. An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of oscillators, signaling that the pair is oversold. The bulls' task is to break through the resistance at 1.3000 and return the pair to the echelon 1.3000-1.3200; - USD/JPY. 60% of analysts, as well as the graphical analysis on D1, still hope that the yen will be able to play back the last week's losses and return the pair to the level of 104.00. At the same time, they, as before, do not exclude that it can reach first the low of 09 March 101.17, and then the psychologically important level of 100.00 in the medium term. As for the remaining 40% of experts, supported by technical and graphical analysis on H4, they expect the pair to at least rise to the upper border of the 105.20-106.55 corridor, and possibly test the 107.00 height; - cryptocurrencies. First a few words about long-term forecasts. So, according to Reuters, the EU authorities are preparing to introduce new rules for regulating the crypto sector by 2024. And, most likely, they will be formulated in such a way as to provide carte blanche to the new "crypto-euro", and the advantages of the existing digital assets will be reduced to zero. Financial officials will try to take full control of the crypto market, which was created precisely in order to avoid their iron grip. And his supporters will now have to look for ways to get around the traps of regulators. The main problem is the withdrawal of crypto coins to fiat. It is at this stage that the owner of the capital is identified. And here, according to forecasts of a number of experts, the newly created crypto-offshore companies in the face of developing African and Asian countries will be included in the transaction chain. And a little more about the distant future. Unlike Reuters, some analysts are painting a much brighter outlook for bitcoin. According to Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, the limited number of BTC coins and the growing level of adoption will lead to a gradual steady increase in its value. “I don't see what could stop bitcoin from doing what it has been doing successfully over the past 10 years, namely, grow,” McGlone said. Bitcoin's fixed supply, according to the strategist, makes it a better means of saving than gold, the total number of which remains unknown. McGlone named the growing number of active bitcoin addresses and the increasing flow of BTC to regulated exchanges as two main factors proving the growing demand for the main cryptocurrency. Another indicator pointing to the growing maturity of bitcoin as an asset class is the decrease in its volatility compared to the Nasdaq index. The results of a study conducted by Cane Island Digital Research also play in favor of this Bloomberg forecast. So, according to estimates of its analysts, the total number of bitcoins in circulation is actually much less than the planned emission volume. Analysts of the agency concluded that since 2010, about 4% of the total amount of available assets are lost annually in the bitcoin blockchain. “So,” their report said, “the current available offer will be about 13.9 million coins, far below the expected total offer of 18.3 million.” Thus, for the first time since May 2020, irretrievable losses of this cryptocurrency exceed the rate of production of new coins. Most of this dramatic change is due to the May halving, which reduced the miner reward of 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block. As for the current forecast, the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair remains unchanged at $9,500, with the main support at $10,000. At the same time, 65% of experts believe that the bulls will make another attempt to break through the resistance of $11,000. However, only 20% of experts agree that the pair will be able to reach the height of $12,000 in the coming week. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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